Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;</li>
<li>With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;</li>
<li>The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.</li>
</ul>


Cadonilimab (AK104)(PD-1/CTLA-4) achieved 7.1% market share in China's PD-1(L1) market in 2023, up from 3.4% in 2022, ranking it No.4 in revenue market share after Tislelezumab, Keytruda and Sintilimab;
With six days to go, the chance to receives NMPA approval for Gastric Cancer is slim, which means the June 18 price cut is for the existing Cervical Cancer indication;
The big question is the price elasticity following Cadonilimab's inclusion to NDRL. With ~110K new patients each year and only ~2,100 receiving Cadonilimab, we expect a moderate price cut.


What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

On August 19, 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> released its 2021/1H financial results. The revenue was RMB13.3 billion, up 17.58% YoY. Net profit was RMB2.66 billion, up just 0.37% YoY, almost no growth, which was highly unusual. The sales of the key product PD-1 also showed negative growth with the price reduction of about 85% due to the volume-based purchase (VBP). Therefore, after the 2021/1H performance was released, Hengrui’s share price tumbled to a new 52-week low of RMB44.33/share by the end of August 30, 2021 . This insights mainly analyze the concerns and the outlook of the Company.

On August 19, 2021, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) released its 2021/1H financial results. The revenue was RMB13.3 billion, up 17.58% YoY. Net profit was RMB2.66 billion, up just 0.37% YoY, almost no growth, which was highly unusual. The sales of the key product PD-1 also showed negative growth with the price reduction of about 85% due to the volume-based purchase (VBP). Therefore, after the 2021/1H performance was released, Hengrui’s share price tumbled to a new 52-week low of RMB44.33/share by the end of August 30, 2021 . This insights mainly analyze the concerns and the outlook of the Company.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - The Concerns and the Outlook

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

The year 2021 marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a>. During this decade, Innovent has launched 5 products, 4 of which entered China's national medical insurance catalogue. Meanwhile, last week, Innovent also released its 2021/1H financial report. The revenue was RMB1.94 billion, up 97.29% YoY. Net loss was RMB1.175 billion, up 93.25% YoY. This article mainly analyzed the 2021/1H performance, the commercialized products, the pipeline, the concerns and the outlook of the Company.

The year 2021 marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK). During this decade, Innovent has launched 5 products, 4 of which entered China's national medical insurance catalogue. Meanwhile, last week, Innovent also released its 2021/1H financial report. The revenue was RMB1.94 billion, up 97.29% YoY. Net loss was RMB1.175 billion, up 93.25% YoY. This article mainly analyzed the 2021/1H performance, the commercialized products, the pipeline, the concerns and the outlook of the Company.

Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) - The Strength and the Concerns

Equity Capital Markets

The PD-1/L1 market is one of the most competitive drug markets in the world. After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lepu-biopharma-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33231:1" rel="noopener">Lepu Biopharma (LBP HK)</a>, whose core product is PD-1, officially started its IPO process in HKEX in April this year, another bio-pharmaceutical company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3d-medicines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33790:1" rel="noopener">3D Medicines (3DM HK)</a> (“3DMed”) submitted its prospectus to the HKEX on June, 30, 2021 based on its core product PD-1 as well. 3DMed is committed to the development and commercialization of a new generation of immuno-oncology therapies with differentiated clinical profile in response to the trend of treating cancer as a chronic disease. This insight mainly analyzed its core product and the pipeline.

The PD-1/L1 market is one of the most competitive drug markets in the world. After Lepu Biopharma (LBP HK), whose core product is PD-1, officially started its IPO process in HKEX in April this year, another bio-pharmaceutical company, 3D Medicines (3DM HK) (“3DMed”) submitted its prospectus to the HKEX on June, 30, 2021 based on its core product PD-1 as well. 3DMed is committed to the development and commercialization of a new generation of immuno-oncology therapies with differentiated clinical profile in response to the trend of treating cancer as a chronic disease. This insight mainly analyzed its core product and the pipeline.

Pre-IPO 3D Medicines - Insights on the Core Product, the Pipeline and the Concerns

After listing on NASDAQ and HKEX, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> will be listed on the SSE STAR market again in the near future. Meanwhile, after successive years of losses, BeiGene finally turned profitable for the first time in the first quarter of 2021. By the end of July 23, 2021, the market value of BeiGene in HKEX and NASDAQ was about HK$226.5 billion and US$29.2 billion, respectively. It is highly probable that the market value of the BeiGene in the SSE STAR market would exceed RMB200 billion after its listing as well. Behind the successful capital operation, what challenges would BeiGene face in the future?

After listing on NASDAQ and HKEX, BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) will be listed on the SSE STAR market again in the near future. Meanwhile, after successive years of losses, BeiGene finally turned profitable for the first time in the first quarter of 2021. By the end of July 23, 2021, the market value of BeiGene in HKEX and NASDAQ was about HK$226.5 billion and US$29.2 billion, respectively. It is highly probable that the market value of the BeiGene in the SSE STAR market would exceed RMB200 billion after its listing as well. Behind the successful capital operation, what challenges would BeiGene face in the future?

Pre-IPO BeiGene Ltd - Concerns on Commercialization

China

Harbin Gloria Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells pharmaceuticals.  The Company's products are small water needle, freeze-dried powder injection, capsules, tablets, suppositories, powder for injection points installation and oncology medicines etc.

Harbin Gloria Pharmaceuticals Co, Ltd. (002437 CH)

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Harbin Gloria Pharmaceuticals Co, Ltd. (002437 CH)

What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - The Concerns and the Outlook

The article analyzed Hengrui in terms of its 2021/1H performance, pipeline, key products, industry policy impact, innovation trend, development...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) - The Strength and the Concerns

This article analyzed Innovent about 2021H1 performance, commercialized products, pipeline, concerns of the Company, and also include thoughts on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO 3D Medicines - Insights on the Core Product, the Pipeline and the Concerns

This insight mainly analyzed 3D Medicines in terms of its core product envafolimab (the competition pattern and prospects), clinical-stage product...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO BeiGene Ltd - Concerns on Commercialization

The article mainly analyzed the three core products (tislelizumab, zanubrutinib and denosumab) of BeiGene, the competitive landscape in China and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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What's Behind Akeso's Cadonilimab Price Cut and What's Next?

​Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) - The Concerns and the Outlook

The article analyzed Hengrui in terms of its 2021/1H performance, pipeline, key products, industry policy impact, innovation trend, development...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics (1801.HK) - The Strength and the Concerns

This article analyzed Innovent about 2021H1 performance, commercialized products, pipeline, concerns of the Company, and also include thoughts on...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO 3D Medicines - Insights on the Core Product, the Pipeline and the Concerns

This insight mainly analyzed 3D Medicines in terms of its core product envafolimab (the competition pattern and prospects), clinical-stage product...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO BeiGene Ltd - Concerns on Commercialization

The article mainly analyzed the three core products (tislelizumab, zanubrutinib and denosumab) of BeiGene, the competitive landscape in China and...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Akeso's proposition is to develop BsAb as a universal anti-cancer drug. Its revenue from Cadonilimab in the out-of-hospital market for Cervical...