Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance</li>
<li>FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes</li>
<li>Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues</li>
</ul>


Q423 earnings fell sharply, but were sufficient to hit FY23 guidance
FY24 guidance also lower, but allows for a very wide range of outcomes
Management raised concerns about Red Sea impact, L-T excess supply issues


Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful 'Glass Half-Full' Investors

<ul>
<li>December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022</li>
<li>Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth</li>
<li>Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming</li>
</ul>


December was best reading from our momentum tracker since November 2022
Improvement driven by rising spot rates, new fees, and stronger volume growth
Even before Red Sea / Suez capacity squeeze, conditions were bottoming


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.</li>
<li>Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.</li>
<li>Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.</li>
</ul>


Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.
Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.
Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.


War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

<ul>
<li>As we begin lapping easy comps, our momentum index looks "less bad"</li>
<li>Red Sea re-routes, interest rate moves, fuel all helped lift shares recently</li>
<li>We think lots of bad news has been priced into shares at current levels</li>
</ul>


As we begin lapping easy comps, our momentum index looks "less bad"
Red Sea re-routes, interest rate moves, fuel all helped lift shares recently
We think lots of bad news has been priced into shares at current levels


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum in October was negative, but decline moderated somewhat</li>
<li>Disparate Q3 profitability trends reported by Maersk, Evergreen, and ZIM </li>
<li>As sentiment weakens (again), we also see signs of a cyclical bottom</li>
</ul>


Price momentum in October was negative, but decline moderated somewhat
Disparate Q3 profitability trends reported by Maersk, Evergreen, and ZIM 
As sentiment weakens (again), we also see signs of a cyclical bottom


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Maersk, Evergreen, ZIM Report Disparate Results (November 2023)

Germany

Hapag-Lloyd AG operates as a container shipping line company. The Company offers transportation of goods by sea, road, rail, and inland waterway vessels. Hapag-Lloyd serves customers worldwide.

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Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG GR)

Maersk FY23 Meets Guidance | But FY24 Guidance & Commentary Rock Hopeful 'Glass Half-Full' Investors

Maersk's downbeat commentary appeared to surprise investors last week. It also revealed a mismatch between management's long-term views and...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rate Momentum +ive | Throughput Up, Too | (January 2024)

Price momentum for deep-sea container rates is improving, and container volumes are also firming. Meanwhile, cheap fuel remains a slightly helpful...

Tracking Traffic

War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

Conflicts are intensifying in the Red Sea. US and UK launched about 70 airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Houthis vows to respond and asserts...

Mint Finance

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Lapping Easy Comps | Red Sea Re-Routes & More (December 2023)

We believe price momentum has started to get "less bad", mainly due to easier Y/Y comps. A potential Red Sea re-route could soak up lots of under...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Maersk, Evergreen, ZIM Report Disparate Results (November 2023)

Container rates remain under pressure, and fuel is no longer a tailwind. But Evergreen's stellar performance YTD is worthy of investors' attention,...

Tracking Traffic

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