Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Maersk's Q125 results slightly beat expectations, but earnings momentum continues to wane</li>
<li>Financial guidance for FY25 unchanged, but there are notable tweaks to key assumptions</li>
<li>Q125 likely carriers' best financial period of FY25 (by far), profits set to erode rest of year</li>
</ul>


Maersk's Q125 results slightly beat expectations, but earnings momentum continues to wane
Financial guidance for FY25 unchanged, but there are notable tweaks to key assumptions
Q125 likely carriers' best financial period of FY25 (by far), profits set to erode rest of year


Maersk Q125 Results: Solid Q1 Numbers | But Mgmt Retains Negative View on FY25, Citing Uncertainty

<ul>
<li>Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal</li>
<li>On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue</li>
<li>Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue <em>increased</em> from Q123 to Q423</li>
</ul>


Spot container rates have surged, owing to conflict near Red Sea / Suez Canal
On top of higher spot rates, imposition of new fees also boosting carrier revenue
Evergreen's average monthly US$ revenue increased from Q123 to Q423


Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The resilience of global container shipping stocks is surprising given weak price trend</li>
<li>Many market participants appear to be betting on a surge in rates after tariff issues settle</li>
<li>But there are several reasons why a bump in rates is unlikely in the near- to medium-term</li>
</ul>


The resilience of global container shipping stocks is surprising given weak price trend
Many market participants appear to be betting on a surge in rates after tariff issues settle
But there are several reasons why a bump in rates is unlikely in the near- to medium-term


Don't Expect A Resolution of Tariff Chaos To Lift Container Shipping Rates Like Covid-19 Did

<ul>
<li>For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative</li>
<li>We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data -- not surprising</li>
<li>New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust</li>
</ul>


For the first time since Q322, our price momentum index flipped to negative
We see few signs of US tariff impacts in the March data -- not surprising
New US levies on China-built ships unhelpful, but most carriers can adjust


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)

<ul>
<li>Price momentum remains very weak, and spot rates are already below 2024 lows</li>
<li>Multiple deep-sea carriers have recently guided to a collapse in core earnings in 2025</li>
<li>USTR / MARAD proposed rule changes could add to US tariff chaos &amp; raise carriers' costs</li>
</ul>


Price momentum remains very weak, and spot rates are already below 2024 lows
Multiple deep-sea carriers have recently guided to a collapse in core earnings in 2025
USTR / MARAD proposed rule changes could add to US tariff chaos &amp; raise carriers' costs


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Down | Chorus of Weak Guidance | USTR-MARAD (March 2025)

Germany

Hapag-Lloyd AG operates as a container shipping line company. The Company offers transportation of goods by sea, road, rail, and inland waterway vessels. Hapag-Lloyd serves customers worldwide.

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Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG GR)

Maersk Q125 Results: Solid Q1 Numbers | But Mgmt Retains Negative View on FY25, Citing Uncertainty

Maersk reported solid Q1 results on Thursday in Copenhagen, and its downbeat FY25 guidance is unchanged. That guidance implies a dramatic erosion...

Tracking Traffic

Spot Container Rates Surge | New Fees Also Boosting Carrier Revenue | Increases Could Lift '24 Rates

Spot container rates have surged, and carriers are also benefitting from newly-imposed ancillary charges. It's possible the ongoing conflict in the...

Tracking Traffic

Don't Expect A Resolution of Tariff Chaos To Lift Container Shipping Rates Like Covid-19 Did

There are several reasons why any resolution of the current US tariff chaos is unlikely to lead to an increase in spot container shipping rates in...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Price Turns Negative | Tariff, Ship Levy Impacts (April 2025)

In March we believe average deep-sea container rates fell Y/Y. Risks facing the carriers -- higher tariffs, new levies on Chinese ships in the US,...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Down | Chorus of Weak Guidance | USTR-MARAD (March 2025)

Container rates continue to fall, and major carriers are guiding to a collapse in core margins in FY25. Proposed US rules could potentially make...

Tracking Traffic

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