Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> will Dual Primary list on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> by Way of Introduction and the stock is expected to start trading on 30 December.</li>
<li>Following the changes to the handling of Dual-Primary-listed companies, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> should be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/futu-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27858:1" rel="noopener">Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US)</a> should also be added to the HSCI at the March rebalance and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect late July/ early August.</li>
</ul>



Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) will Dual Primary list on the HKEX (388 HK) by Way of Introduction and the stock is expected to start trading on 30 December.
Following the changes to the handling of Dual-Primary-listed companies, Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) should be added to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March rebalance.

Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU US) should also be added to the HSCI at the March rebalance and should be added to Southbound Stock Connect late July/ early August.


Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion

<ul>
<li>On 27 May, the SFC and CSRC announced that they had agreed in principle to the inclusion of Exchange Traded Funds by mainland and Hong Kong exchanges in Stock Connect.</li>
<li>We currently see 6 ETF being eligible for inclusion in Southbound Connect and another couple that could be included at a subsequent review.</li>
<li>Increased mainland participation in the ETF market could lead to sustained premium/discount on the ETFs and this will be transmitted to index futures and affect pricing of short-term/long-term repo.</li>
</ul>


On 27 May, the SFC and CSRC announced that they had agreed in principle to the inclusion of Exchange Traded Funds by mainland and Hong Kong exchanges in Stock Connect.
We currently see 6 ETF being eligible for inclusion in Southbound Connect and another couple that could be included at a subsequent review.
Increased mainland participation in the ETF market could lead to sustained premium/discount on the ETFs and this will be transmitted to index futures and affect pricing of short-term/long-term repo.


ETFs in Stock Connect: Criteria & Potential Southbound Inclusions

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> currently has a float of 1.4%. That will increase to 46% at the end of June as pre-IPO and cornerstone investor lock-ups end.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Tech Index</a> FAF increase and potential inclusion in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a> will require passive trackers to buy 700m shares early September.</li>
<li>Economic stimulus in China, outlook for China tech, lock-up expiry, inclusion in Southbound Connect and flows from passive trackers will drive the stock for few months and provide trading opportunities.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) currently has a float of 1.4%. That will increase to 46% at the end of June as pre-IPO and cornerstone investor lock-ups end.
The Hang Seng Tech Index FAF increase and potential inclusion in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index will require passive trackers to buy 700m shares early September.
Economic stimulus in China, outlook for China tech, lock-up expiry, inclusion in Southbound Connect and flows from passive trackers will drive the stock for few months and provide trading opportunities.


SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Will Bring BIG Passive Flow

<ul>
<li>The review cutoff date for the September rebalance of the HSIII was 28 June. The changes will be announced on 16 August and become effective after the close 6 September.</li>
<li>There could be 3 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Capping will result in passives buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> while selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The review cutoff date for the September rebalance of the HSIII was 28 June. The changes will be announced on 16 August and become effective after the close 6 September.
There could be 3 changes to the index with some inclusions driven by potential addition to the Hang Seng Composite Index. That could lead to buying via Southbound Stock Connect.
Capping will result in passives buying Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) while selling Meituan (3690 HK) and Tencent (700 HK).


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> is expected to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 3.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of HK$7.8bn (US$1bn).</li>
<li>Short interest is near the lows on both stocks but there has been a recent tick higher for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) is expected to replace Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the September rebalance.
Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 3.7% and that will result in a round-trip trade of HK$7.8bn (US$1bn).
Short interest is near the lows on both stocks but there has been a recent tick higher for ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK).


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng TECH Index aims to represent the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong which have high business exposure to the Innovative Tech Themes.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

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Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

Futu (FUTU US / 3588 HK): Dual Primary Listing, Stock Connect & Potential HSCI/HSTECH Inclusion

Futu (FUTU US) will Dual Primary list on the HKEX by Way of Introduction. Stock is expected to start trading on 30 Dec. Futu should be added to...

Brian Freitas

ETFs in Stock Connect: Criteria & Potential Southbound Inclusions

SFC & CSRC have agreed in principle to the inclusion of HKEX listed ETFs in Southbound Connect. We see 6 ETFs as eligible for inclusion. There will...

Brian Freitas

SenseTime (20 HK): Lock-Up Expiry Will Bring BIG Passive Flow

SenseTime rallied post listing and has since dropped. Lock-up expiry in June could lead to short-term weakness but that will bring in large passive...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Three Adds/Deletes & Capping Changes

There could be 3 changes for the HSIII in September. The passive buying on the adds is small while selling on the deletes is much larger. Lock-up...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: ASM Pacific (522) Could Replace Ping An Health (1833); US$1bn Trade

ASM Pacific could replace Ping An Healthcare in Sep. Constituent and capping changes will result in a 1-way turnover of 3.7% and in a round-trip...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)