Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Where will the inflation surprises come from?<ul><li>Deflationary pressures are dissipating leading to an upward march of price levels worldwide.</li><li>We examine a number of metrics used to determine inflationary pressures and use them to determine which countries would see unexpectedly faster inflation than expected.</li><li>In summary, upside surprises to inflation are likely to be seen in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.</li></ul>

Where will the inflation surprises come from?Deflationary pressures are dissipating leading to an upward march of price levels worldwide.We examine a number of metrics used to determine inflationary pressures and use them to determine which countries would see unexpectedly faster inflation than expected.In summary, upside surprises to inflation are likely to be seen in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Where Will the Inflation Surprises Come From?

There is one clear upside and two potential downsides from the current trajectory of policy and economic activity in the US.First, the economy appears to be in a positive spiral, likely to boost Asian exports by more than expected:The upside surprise in US manufacturing is just the beginning of more upside surprises in the US, a virtuous upward spiral is emerging:<ul><li>
Fed’s Beige Book revealed tightening labour markets and rising wages: Anecdotal information from Jan 17 to mid-Feb 17 pointed towards…</li></ul>

There is one clear upside and two potential downsides from the current trajectory of policy and economic activity in the US.First, the economy appears to be in a positive spiral, likely to boost Asian exports by more than expected:The upside surprise in US manufacturing is just the beginning of more upside surprises in the US, a virtuous upward spiral is emerging:
Fed’s Beige Book revealed tightening labour markets and rising wages: Anecdotal information from Jan 17 to mid-Feb 17 pointed towards…

How Much Risk Does the US Pose to Asian Economies?

Macroeconomics

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts<ul><li>
US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s amicable conversation with China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi when they re-affirmed the importance of a constructive US-China relationship, a US carrier group led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson began ‘routine operations’ in the South China Sea. This appears to be a sign that the Trump Administration might want to push back harder on China’s…</li></ul>

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts
US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s amicable conversation with China’s State Councillor Yang Jiechi when they re-affirmed the importance of a constructive US-China relationship, a US carrier group led by the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson began ‘routine operations’ in the South China Sea. This appears to be a sign that the Trump Administration might want to push back harder on China’s…

US and China Push Their Respective Envelopes

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Year-end rally to cap off a decent year<ul>
<li>Buoyant 4Q16 growth at 3.1% y/y was up significantly from the muted 2.0% in 3Q16. This brings 2016 GDP to 1.9%, down from 2.4% in 2015. Growth is projected to be at the 2-3% range in 2017.</li>
<li>Growth powered by exports and consumption: Consumption grew 1.5% y/y in 4Q16, up from 0.9% in 3Q16, lifted by more optimistic consumer sentiment and higher wages. Exports surged 3.9% y/y, rising markedly from 0.7% in 3Q16, on the back of strong global demand.</li>
</ul>Budget 2017:…

Year-end rally to cap off a decent year
Buoyant 4Q16 growth at 3.1% y/y was up significantly from the muted 2.0% in 3Q16. This brings 2016 GDP to 1.9%, down from 2.4% in 2015. Growth is projected to be at the 2-3% range in 2017.
Growth powered by exports and consumption: Consumption grew 1.5% y/y in 4Q16, up from 0.9% in 3Q16, lifted by more optimistic consumer sentiment and higher wages. Exports surged 3.9% y/y, rising markedly from 0.7% in 3Q16, on the back of strong global demand.
Budget 2017:…

Hong Kong: A Forward-Looking and Inclusive Budget

<ul>
<li>
Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.</li>
<li>
North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…</li>
</ul>



Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour the longstanding “One China” policy, which he had appeared to question in his tweets. But the potential downside risks in the bilateral relationship were made clear by reports of an “unsafe” interaction between a Chinese surveillance plane and a US Navy P-3C Orion surveillance aircraft on the same day.

North Korean missile test not a huge deal: The test…


Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Hong Kong

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Where Will the Inflation Surprises Come From?

Where will the inflation surprises come from? Deflationary pressures are dissipating leading to an upward march of price levels worldwide. We...

Manu Bhaskaran

How Much Risk Does the US Pose to Asian Economies?

There is one clear upside and two potential downsides from the current trajectory of policy and economic activity in the US.First, the economy...

Manu Bhaskaran

US and China Push Their Respective Envelopes

South China Sea: US and China remain the key despite ASEAN efforts US blows hot and cold with China: Despite US Secretary of State Tillerson’s...

Manu Bhaskaran

Hong Kong: A Forward-Looking and Inclusive Budget

Year-end rally to cap off a decent year Buoyant 4Q16 growth at 3.1% y/y was up significantly from the muted 2.0% in 3Q16. This brings 2016 GDP to...

Jason Tan

Geopolitics: Trump Refines Approach to China

Trump stepped back from direct confrontation with China: In his phone call with Chinese President Xi, Trump acceded to China’s request to honour...

Manu Bhaskaran

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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