Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

<ul><li>First, I sold out of Kenvue (KVUE) when the stock surged earlier this week. We locked in a nice 18% total return. </li><li>Kenvue and its consumer healthcare peers Haleon (HLN), Proctor &amp; Gamble (PG) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL), have all been strong given their defensive nature in a volatile market.</li><li>I still believe that Kenvue (KVUE) is a solid company with 15% upside potential, but I have higher conviction in my other recommendations.</li></ul>

First, I sold out of Kenvue (KVUE) when the stock surged earlier this week. We locked in a nice 18% total return. Kenvue and its consumer healthcare peers Haleon (HLN), Proctor &amp; Gamble (PG) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL), have all been strong given their defensive nature in a volatile market.I still believe that Kenvue (KVUE) is a solid company with 15% upside potential, but I have higher conviction in my other recommendations.

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> reported Q3FY25 US business revenue of INR33.8B, up 1% YoY, mainly dragged by lower contribution from Lenalidomide. Q3FY25 EBITDA margin deteriorated to 27.5% (Q3FY24: 29.3%).</li>
<li>Limited growth catalysts remain major overhang. No near-term key launches lined-up to fill the void created by Lenalidomide. Moreover, paltry new launches in the U.S. entail limited revenue visibility.</li>
<li>Lack of near-term catalyst and bleak growth outlook justify cheaper valuation of Dr. Reddy’s. We do not consider Dr. Reddy’s as value buying opportunity and remain bearish on the name.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) reported Q3FY25 US business revenue of INR33.8B, up 1% YoY, mainly dragged by lower contribution from Lenalidomide. Q3FY25 EBITDA margin deteriorated to 27.5% (Q3FY24: 29.3%).
Limited growth catalysts remain major overhang. No near-term key launches lined-up to fill the void created by Lenalidomide. Moreover, paltry new launches in the U.S. entail limited revenue visibility.
Lack of near-term catalyst and bleak growth outlook justify cheaper valuation of Dr. Reddy’s. We do not consider Dr. Reddy’s as value buying opportunity and remain bearish on the name.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Q3FY25 Result- Subdued US Business Dents Margin; Somber Outlook

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-reddy-s-laboratories-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16406:1" rel="noopener">Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN)</a> has signed a definitive agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haleon-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36122:1" rel="noopener">Haleon (HLN LN)</a> to acquire latter’s global portfolio of consumer healthcare brands in the nicotine replacement therapy outside US.</li>
<li>The company will acquire the portfolio for a total consideration of £500M ($633M). In 2023, the portfolio generated ~£217M ($274M) revenue. Purchase consideration values the business at EV/sales of 2.3x.</li>
<li>The acquisition will not stretch the balance sheet as Dr. Reddy’s has a cash balance of $990M as on March 31, 2024. The transaction is expected to complete in 4Q24.</li>
</ul>



Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN) has signed a definitive agreement with Haleon (HLN LN) to acquire latter’s global portfolio of consumer healthcare brands in the nicotine replacement therapy outside US.
The company will acquire the portfolio for a total consideration of £500M ($633M). In 2023, the portfolio generated ~£217M ($274M) revenue. Purchase consideration values the business at EV/sales of 2.3x.
The acquisition will not stretch the balance sheet as Dr. Reddy’s has a cash balance of $990M as on March 31, 2024. The transaction is expected to complete in 4Q24.


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Nicotinell Acquisition to Fortify Consumer Healthcare Business

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisho-pharmaceutical-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3774:1" rel="noopener">Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)</a>’s MBO JPY8,620 offer closes on 15 January. Since announcing the offer, the shares have traded above terms for 21 out of the 30 trading days.</li>
<li>Japan Catalyst has called the offer's P/B of 0.85x too low. While shares trading above terms does not guarantee that the tender fails, it does increase the risk of failure.</li>
<li>The offeror has no compelling reason to bump as other activists have not publicly supported Japan Catalyst, the high 55.5% premium to undisturbed price and an achievable minority acceptance rate. </li>
</ul>



Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin (4581 JP)’s MBO JPY8,620 offer closes on 15 January. Since announcing the offer, the shares have traded above terms for 21 out of the 30 trading days.
Japan Catalyst has called the offer's P/B of 0.85x too low. While shares trading above terms does not guarantee that the tender fails, it does increase the risk of failure.
The offeror has no compelling reason to bump as other activists have not publicly supported Japan Catalyst, the high 55.5% premium to undisturbed price and an achievable minority acceptance rate. 


Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Calm as Offer Heads for the 15 January Close

United States

Haleon PLC provides consumer healthcare products. The Company offers therapeutic oral health, vitamins, cold and flu, minerals and supplements, pain relief, and digestive health products. Haleon serves customers worldwide.

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Haleon (HLN LN)

Weekly Update (CON, UNTC, KVUE, TSVT)

First, I sold out of Kenvue (KVUE) when the stock surged earlier this week. We locked in a nice 18% total return. Kenvue and its consumer...

Richard Howe

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Q3FY25 Result- Subdued US Business Dents Margin; Somber Outlook

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories reports stagnant US revenue in Q3FY25, dragged by lower contribution from Lenalidomide. Lack of growth catalysts...

Tina Banerjee

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Nicotinell Acquisition to Fortify Consumer Healthcare Business

Dr. Reddy's is acquiring Haleon’s global portfolio of consumer healthcare brands in the nicotine replacement therapy outside US for £500M ($633M)....

Tina Banerjee

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Calm as Offer Heads for the 15 January Close

The offeror has no compelling reason to bump as other activists have not publicly supported Japan Catalyst, the high 55.5% premium to undisturbed...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Weekly Update (CON, UNTC, KVUE, TSVT)

First, I sold out of Kenvue (KVUE) when the stock surged earlier this week. We locked in a nice 18% total return. Kenvue and its consumer...

Richard Howe

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Q3FY25 Result- Subdued US Business Dents Margin; Somber Outlook

​Dr. Reddy's Laboratories reports stagnant US revenue in Q3FY25, dragged by lower contribution from Lenalidomide. Lack of growth catalysts...

Tina Banerjee

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (DRRD IN): Nicotinell Acquisition to Fortify Consumer Healthcare Business

Dr. Reddy's is acquiring Haleon’s global portfolio of consumer healthcare brands in the nicotine replacement therapy outside US for £500M ($633M)....

Tina Banerjee

Taisho Pharmaceutical (4581 JP): Calm as Offer Heads for the 15 January Close

The offeror has no compelling reason to bump as other activists have not publicly supported Japan Catalyst, the high 55.5% premium to undisturbed...

Arun George

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories reports stagnant US revenue in Q3FY25, dragged by lower contribution from Lenalidomide. Lack of growth catalysts...