IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">Eoflow (294090 KS)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20649:1" rel="noopener">Irc Ltd (1029 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.
</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pact-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:692:1" rel="noopener">Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU)</a>, Taisho. </li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Eoflow (294090 KS), 111 Inc (YI US), Irc Ltd (1029 HK), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Healius (HLS AU), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Lowest spreads - Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), Toyo Construction (1890 JP), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Taisho. 


Merger Arb Mondays (4 Dec) - Origin, OreCorp, Healius, CIMC Vehicles, T&K Toka, Eoflow, Hollysys

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 1st.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly Hongkong connect flows for Meituan and Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 1st.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight weekly Hongkong connect flows for Meituan and Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 1st): Meituan, Tencent

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Taisho Pharmaceutical Holdin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of November 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$13bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was 41%. The average YTD is 38% (97 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> was suspended yesterday pursuant to Hong Kong's Takeover Code, the expectation was an H-share Offer from its parent, SOE-backed CIMC Group.</li>
<li>CIMC subsequently <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1128/2023112800426.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an indicative Offer yesterday evening, from its parent, at a $7.00/share for each H-share, a pitiful 8.6% premium to last close. There is no concurrent A-share Offer.</li>
<li>CIMC traded around $7.00 late September, and comfortably traded through the indicative terms for most of July. </li>
</ul>


After CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) was suspended yesterday pursuant to Hong Kong's Takeover Code, the expectation was an H-share Offer from its parent, SOE-backed CIMC Group.
CIMC subsequently announced an indicative Offer yesterday evening, from its parent, at a $7.00/share for each H-share, a pitiful 8.6% premium to last close. There is no concurrent A-share Offer.
CIMC traded around $7.00 late September, and comfortably traded through the indicative terms for most of July. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): $7.00/Share Indicative Offer From Parent - Really?!

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK)</a> is currently <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/1128/2023112701144.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> pursuant to Hong Kong's Code on Takeovers and Mergers.</li>
<li>SOE-Backed CIMC Group controls ~74% of CMIC Vehicle's H-shares. Presumably, if any Offer was to unfold, it would be from the parent.</li>
<li>And what price for the H-shares? Around HK$9/share, a life-time high, would be in keeping with premiums seen in precedent PRC-incorporated privatisations. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to Hong Kong's Code on Takeovers and Mergers.
SOE-Backed CIMC Group controls ~74% of CMIC Vehicle's H-shares. Presumably, if any Offer was to unfold, it would be from the parent.
And what price for the H-shares? Around HK$9/share, a life-time high, would be in keeping with premiums seen in precedent PRC-incorporated privatisations. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Parent Privatisation?

Hong Kong

Haitong International Securities Group Ltd. provides brokerage and retail margin  financing, corporate finance, investment management, fixed income, currency and  commodities as well as structured financing products and services to domestic and international institutional clients and individual investors.

Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Haitong International Securities Group (665 HK)

Merger Arb Mondays (4 Dec) - Origin, OreCorp, Healius, CIMC Vehicles, T&K Toka, Eoflow, Hollysys

This week, the highest gross spreads are Eoflow (215.5%), 111 (93.7%), IRC (22.9%), OreCorp (20.8%), Healius (18.7%), Hollysys (15.5%), Origin...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 1st): Meituan, Tencent

We analyzed southbound weekly Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and we highlighted weekly flows for Meituan and Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

For the month of November, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$13bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Parent Privatisation?

If any offer was to unfold, it would be from the CIMC Group holding 74% of the H-shares. ~HK$9/share Offer price would be in keeping with premiums...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Merger Arb Mondays (4 Dec) - Origin, OreCorp, Healius, CIMC Vehicles, T&K Toka, Eoflow, Hollysys

This week, the highest gross spreads are Eoflow (215.5%), 111 (93.7%), IRC (22.9%), OreCorp (20.8%), Healius (18.7%), Hollysys (15.5%), Origin...

Arun George

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 1st): Meituan, Tencent

We analyzed southbound weekly Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and we highlighted weekly flows for Meituan and Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Nov 2023: Taisho Pharma, CIMC Vehicle, CMIC, Japan Best Rescue, Shidax

For the month of November, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$13bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): $7.00/Share Indicative Offer From Parent - Really?!

You have a possible floor at $7.00/share. I wouldn't buy through terms. It may still get bumped. It should get bumped. It may not. Plus this...

David Blennerhassett

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Parent Privatisation?

If any offer was to unfold, it would be from the CIMC Group holding 74% of the H-shares. ~HK$9/share Offer price would be in keeping with premiums...

David Blennerhassett