Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Haidilao International Holding / Event-Driven

<p>The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) should announce the results of the 2020 Q3 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 6 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.</p><p>With only 3 changes permitted in the September <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> review post the methodology change that included WVR securities and Secondary Listings in the eligible Universe, there could be as many as 9 changes in the December review.</p><p>We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-overseas-land-invest" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:419:1" rel="noopener">China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (HK) (9618 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-feihe-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24413:1" rel="noopener">China Feihe (6186 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-real-estate-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a> being included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, and of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-taiping-insurance-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:489:1" rel="noopener">China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-telecom-corp-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1015:1" rel="noopener">China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-minsheng-banking-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8983:1" rel="noopener">China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-vanke-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18368:1" rel="noopener">China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-citic-bank-corp-ltd-ea6c25fd-4b20-45cb-a4a6-df7a60136f03" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:653:1" rel="noopener">China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a> being deleted from the index.</p><p>Depending on price movements between now and 30 September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK)</a> could be included in the index, which would see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> being deleted.</p><p>Estimated one-way turnover for the rebalance is 9.63% which is lower than the turnover at the September rebalance, but significant nonetheless.</p><p>The expected review changes will alter the sectoral composition of the index with an increase in the weight of the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Health Care sectors at the expense of Financials and Energy. There will also be an impact on the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures, a large part of which has already been discounted by the market.</p>

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) should announce the results of the 2020 Q3 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 6 November. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 4 December.With only 3 changes permitted in the September Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) review post the methodology change that included WVR securities and Secondary Listings in the eligible Universe, there could be as many as 9 changes in the December review.We see a high probability of China Overseas Land &amp; Investment Ltd (688 HK), JD.com (HK) (9618 HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK), Haidilao (6862 HK), China Feihe (6186 HK), Semiconductor Manufacturing (981 HK) and Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK) being included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), and of China Taiping Insurance Hldgs (966 HK), China Telecom Corp Ltd (H) (728 HK), China Minsheng Banking H (1988 HK), China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK), Fosun International (656 HK), China Citic Bank Corp Ltd H (998 HK) and China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) being deleted from the index.Depending on price movements between now and 30 September, NetEase (9999 HK) and Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) could be included in the index, which would see Want Want (151 HK) and PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) being deleted.Estimated one-way turnover for the rebalance is 9.63% which is lower than the turnover at the September rebalance, but significant nonetheless.The expected review changes will alter the sectoral composition of the index with an increase in the weight of the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Health Care sectors at the expense of Financials and Energy. There will also be an impact on the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures, a large part of which has already been discounted by the market.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview - December 2020: HUGE Number of Changes and Turnover Expected

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (NON HK)</a> raised around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is the market leader in packaged drinking water in China.</p>
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<p>In my earlier notes, I spoke about the company, its past performance and undertook a peer comparison and valuation analysis:</p>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-pre-ipo-the-positives-leaves-one-thirsty-for-more" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - The Positives - Leaves One Thirsty for More</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-pre-ipo-the-negatives-doesn-t-need-to-list-or-expand-production-facilities" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Doesn’t Need to List or Expand Production Facilities</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-pre-ipo-peer-comparison-superior-margins-and-growth" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Superior Margins and Growth</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-pre-ipo-first-stab-at-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-pre-ipo-phip-updates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-pre-ipo-updates-to-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - Updates to Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-ipo-not-cheap-by-any-measure-but-is-a-quality-name" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring IPO - Not Cheap by Any Measure but Is a Quality Name</a></li>
</ul>
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<div>In this note, I'll look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.</div>


Nongfu Spring (NON HK) raised around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is the market leader in packaged drinking water in China.


In my earlier notes, I spoke about the company, its past performance and undertook a peer comparison and valuation analysis:



Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - The Positives - Leaves One Thirsty for More
Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Doesn’t Need to List or Expand Production Facilities
Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - Peer Comparison - Superior Margins and Growth
Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - First Stab at Valuation
Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates
Nongfu Spring Pre-IPO - Updates to Valuation
Nongfu Spring IPO - Not Cheap by Any Measure but Is a Quality Name


In this note, I'll look at the deal dynamics and provide a table with implied valuation at different share price levels.

Nongfu Spring IPO Trading Update - Strong Subscription Levels, in a League of Its Own

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Revenue in H120 at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dali-foods-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1082:1" rel="noopener">Dali Foods Group (3799 HK)</a> declined by 8.7% YoY, but margins were relatively stable and the company managed to report net EPS of 0.14 RMB (-9.5% YoY). Dali Foods declared an interim dividend of 0.075 HKD, equivalent to about 47% of net profit. </p>
<p>The company's main three product areas posted wildly divergent results in H120. Sales of <em>Household Consumption</em> items -- soy-based drinks and bread products -- held up well during the pandemic, rising 7.7% YoY. Sales of <em>Snacks</em> declined, but only by 2% YoY. But Dali's <em>Ready to Drink</em><em>Beverages</em> saw sales decline by almost 23% YoY due to intense competition in the segment. </p>
<p>All told, Dali's sales performance in H120 barely outperformed overall retail sales in China (Dali -8.7% versus -10.9% retail sales excluding autos). Certainly the pace of revenue growth will recover here in H2 as pandemic fears subside, but we see few reasons to get excited about the stock. Retain SELL and HK$4.18 target price, implying 16% downside from the closing price on September 4. </p>

Revenue in H120 at Dali Foods Group (3799 HK) declined by 8.7% YoY, but margins were relatively stable and the company managed to report net EPS of 0.14 RMB (-9.5% YoY). Dali Foods declared an interim dividend of 0.075 HKD, equivalent to about 47% of net profit. 
The company's main three product areas posted wildly divergent results in H120. Sales of Household Consumption items -- soy-based drinks and bread products -- held up well during the pandemic, rising 7.7% YoY. Sales of Snacks declined, but only by 2% YoY. But Dali's Ready to DrinkBeverages saw sales decline by almost 23% YoY due to intense competition in the segment. 
All told, Dali's sales performance in H120 barely outperformed overall retail sales in China (Dali -8.7% versus -10.9% retail sales excluding autos). Certainly the pace of revenue growth will recover here in H2 as pandemic fears subside, but we see few reasons to get excited about the stock. Retain SELL and HK$4.18 target price, implying 16% downside from the closing price on September 4. 

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Story Remains Unexciting, Retain SELL

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>In our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are joined by Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/devi-subhakesan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1913" rel="noopener">Devi Subhakesan</a> to discuss disruption in Asia’s restaurant sector, which is currently struggling to overcome the brutal impact of COVID-19. Devi will present her findings from her Smartkarma Original, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/asia-restaurant-sector-disrupted-opportunities-challenges-ahead-time-to-pivot-persist" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:41346" rel="noopener">Asia Restaurant Sector: Disrupted. Opportunities/Challenges Ahead -Time to Pivot &amp; Persist</a>, which looked at companies from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jollibee-foods-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:987:1" rel="noopener">Jollibee Foods (JFC PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starbucks-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7641:1" rel="noopener">Starbucks Corp (SBUX US)</a> China.</p>
<h3>The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 9/September/2020, 5.00pm SGT/HKT.<a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=87545535217" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>
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<p>Watch the session here:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WFA1YZH6LSo" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="allowfullscreen"></iframe></p>
<p></p>
<p>Or listen on the go:</p>
<p><iframe src="https://open.spotify.com/embed-podcast/episode/5C9LN6ooWfmhu0j7vtHS0I" width="100%" height="232" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe>Devi Subhakesan is an Equity Analyst with an Asia Consumer Sector Focus. She has been part of Buy-side and Sell-side Institutions, and has covered Oil, Gas &amp; Coal, Media, Textiles, and Consumer Discretionary sectors across ASEAN, India, and North Asia.</p>

In our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are joined by Insight Provider Devi Subhakesan to discuss disruption in Asia’s restaurant sector, which is currently struggling to overcome the brutal impact of COVID-19. Devi will present her findings from her Smartkarma Original, Asia Restaurant Sector: Disrupted. Opportunities/Challenges Ahead -Time to Pivot &amp; Persist, which looked at companies from Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US) and Haidilao (6862 HK), to Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) and Starbucks Corp (SBUX US) China.
The webinar was hosted on Wednesday, 9/September/2020, 5.00pm SGT/HKT.

Watch the session here:


Or listen on the go:
Devi Subhakesan is an Equity Analyst with an Asia Consumer Sector Focus. She has been part of Buy-side and Sell-side Institutions, and has covered Oil, Gas &amp; Coal, Media, Textiles, and Consumer Discretionary sectors across ASEAN, India, and North Asia.

Smartkarma Webinar | Asia Restaurant Sector: Disrupted

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Yum China Holdings  / Equity Capital Markets

<p>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK)</a>, the operator of world-famous restaurant brands such as KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and Lavazza in China prepares for a secondary listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange, we take you through our estimates and discuss the company’s valuation against its history, and Hong Kong listed peers.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yum-china-a-quick-run-through-fundamentals-before-the-secondary-listing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Previously</a>, we looked at the company’s fundamentals, highlighting Yum China’s long-term growth prospects. Although the valuation is currently stretched, considering the company's historical valuation range, we believe there is still upside potential in the medium term, from accelerated restaurant openings using the secondary listing proceeds.</p>

As Yum China Holdings Inc (9987 HK), the operator of world-famous restaurant brands such as KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and Lavazza in China prepares for a secondary listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange, we take you through our estimates and discuss the company’s valuation against its history, and Hong Kong listed peers.Previously, we looked at the company’s fundamentals, highlighting Yum China’s long-term growth prospects. Although the valuation is currently stretched, considering the company's historical valuation range, we believe there is still upside potential in the medium term, from accelerated restaurant openings using the secondary listing proceeds.

Yum China Secondary Listing: Accelerating EBIT Growth Justifies Elevated Valuation Multiples

China

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. operates Chinese cuisine restaurant brand focusing on hot pot cuisine. The Company provides hot pots, soup bases, dipping sauces, drinks, prepared food, and other products. Haidilao International Holding opens restaurants in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

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Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview - December 2020: HUGE Number of Changes and Turnover Expected

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) will announce the results of the 2020 Q2 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes in mid August. The...

Brian Freitas

Nongfu Spring IPO Trading Update - Strong Subscription Levels, in a League of Its Own

Nongfu Spring (NON HK) is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is the market leader in packaged drinking water in...

Sumeet Singh

Dali Foods (3799 HK): Story Remains Unexciting, Retain SELL

Revenue in H120 at Dali Foods Group (3799 HK) declined by 8.7% YoY, but margins were relatively stable and the company managed to report net EPS of...

Tracking Traffic

Smartkarma Webinar | Asia Restaurant Sector: Disrupted

In our next Smartkarma Webinar, we are joined by Insight Provider Devi Subhakesan, who will discuss the topic of disruption in Asia’s restaurant...

Smartkarma Research

Yum China Secondary Listing: Accelerating EBIT Growth Justifies Elevated Valuation Multiples

As Yum China, the operator of world-famous restaurant brands such as KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell and Lavazza in China prepares for a secondary...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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