Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Two and a half years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2O Retailing (8242 JP)</a> the 10.9% owner, arranged to merge its own units into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-super-market-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15519:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Super Market (9919 JP)</a> to get control. OK Corp complained.</li>
<li>
OK Corp offered to double the price in a Tender Offer but wouldn't go hostile. KSM/KFM said no go. Shares popped to ¥2,000+ then when the deal failed, they fell. </li>
<li>
H₂O ended up with 58% (64.9% of votes now). The ultimate goal was to swallow it paying zero premium. On 15 May, it announced the merger to do just that. </li>
</ul>


Two and a half years ago, H2O Retailing (8242 JP) the 10.9% owner, arranged to merge its own units into Kansai Super Market (9919 JP) to get control. OK Corp complained.

OK Corp offered to double the price in a Tender Offer but wouldn't go hostile. KSM/KFM said no go. Shares popped to ¥2,000+ then when the deal failed, they fell. 

H₂O ended up with 58% (64.9% of votes now). The ultimate goal was to swallow it paying zero premium. On 15 May, it announced the merger to do just that. 


Kansai Food Market (9919) Minorities Get Squeezed into H2O Retailing (8242)

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


<ul>
<li>Something remarkable has happened in the department store sector. A year ago, both big city stores and those in the regions were all still well behind sales levels in 2010. </li>
<li>But stores in the largest 10 cities exceeded 2010 sales levels by 2% last year. Emphasising the yawning gap, regional stores extended their losses with sales down 42% on 2010.</li>
<li>The elite have also suddenly started making money. A lot of it. We now have a (very profitable) luxury retail sector and a (poor returning) middle-market general merchandise store sector.</li>
</ul>


Something remarkable has happened in the department store sector. A year ago, both big city stores and those in the regions were all still well behind sales levels in 2010. 
But stores in the largest 10 cities exceeded 2010 sales levels by 2% last year. Emphasising the yawning gap, regional stores extended their losses with sales down 42% on 2010.
The elite have also suddenly started making money. A lot of it. We now have a (very profitable) luxury retail sector and a (poor returning) middle-market general merchandise store sector.


Japanese Department Stores: The Elite Profit Machines

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>There is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> buyback risk that might cause <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> has consistently traded through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a>'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. </li>
</ul>


There is Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) buyback risk that might cause Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.

L'Occitane (973 HK)'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

Japan

H2O RETAILING CORPORATION founded in Osaka in 1929, operates railway terminal department stores.  The Company's main store is located at Hankyu terminal in Umeda (Osaka) and sells clothing, foods, sundry goods, furniture, and household utensils.  H2O Retailing also operates restaurants and coffee shops.

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H2O Retailing (8242 JP)

Kansai Food Market (9919) Minorities Get Squeezed into H2O Retailing (8242)

Kansai Super Market (aka Kansai Food Market) was the vehicle for an RTO in late 2021 to the detriment of minorities. Now minorities are being...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

Japanese Department Stores: The Elite Profit Machines

Dept. stores in big cities have grown 2% since 2010, but regional are down 42%, a massive gap. The elite luxury sector is thriving, with big...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Kansai Food Market (9919) Minorities Get Squeezed into H2O Retailing (8242)

Kansai Super Market (aka Kansai Food Market) was the vehicle for an RTO in late 2021 to the detriment of minorities. Now minorities are being...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Japan's Best Performing Retailers

There were strong improvements in both sales and profits for leading retailers last year and the following insight looks at the main winners and...

Michael Causton

Japanese Department Stores: The Elite Profit Machines

​Dept. stores in big cities have grown 2% since 2010, but regional are down 42%, a massive gap. The elite luxury sector is thriving, with big...

Michael Causton

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Dept. stores in big cities have grown 2% since 2010, but regional are down 42%, a massive gap. The elite luxury sector is thriving, with big...