Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The trade of being short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giordano-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13899:1" rel="noopener">Giordano (709 HK)</a>'s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/az-com-maruwa-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17280:1" rel="noopener">AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP)</a> intends to launch a Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chilled-frozen-logistics-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40987:1" rel="noopener">Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP)</a> without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!</li>
</ul>


The trade of being short Fast Retailing (9983 JP) vs Nikkei 225 or Sector Basket is fundamentally slightly short Nikkei 225 froth.

Giordano (709 HK)'s SGM will likely pivot off how the shareholders under Halcyon Securities vote. Digging a little deeper as to who these shareholders are, provides some (not-altogether) surprising results.

AZ-Com Maruwa Holdings (9090 JP) intends to launch a Tender Offer on Chilled &amp; Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP) without having contacted C&amp;F first. A HOSTILE deal. Yum!


Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gxo-logistics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35654:1" rel="noopener">GXO Logistics (GXO US)</a> offers 605p for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wincanton-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23839:1" rel="noopener">Wincanton PLC (WIN LN)</a>, in a strategic move worth a 104% premium, 8.6x EV/25e EBITDA, 18.2 Fwd P/E (IBES), via scheme with 34% irrevocables.</li>
<li>Regulators are used to monitoring this industry, gradually consolidating on a worldwide scale as a result of cost pressures. GXO has smaller scale in the UK. </li>
<li>I don't think antitrust issues are going to prevent this transaction. Interloper risk is minimal (DHL, Deutsche Post would have regulatory issues). Spread is 1.00%/7.14% (gross/annualised). Long.</li>
</ul>



GXO Logistics (GXO US) offers 605p for Wincanton PLC (WIN LN), in a strategic move worth a 104% premium, 8.6x EV/25e EBITDA, 18.2 Fwd P/E (IBES), via scheme with 34% irrevocables.
Regulators are used to monitoring this industry, gradually consolidating on a worldwide scale as a result of cost pressures. GXO has smaller scale in the UK. 
I don't think antitrust issues are going to prevent this transaction. Interloper risk is minimal (DHL, Deutsche Post would have regulatory issues). Spread is 1.00%/7.14% (gross/annualised). Long.


<ul>
<li>Consideration is 690p + 0.0359 new GXO shares, an implied equity value of £961 million. Multiples are 12.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. a median 11.3x for comparable M&amp;A transactions) and 33.3x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>My TP for Clipper is 857p (DCF, WACC 9.5%, 9.0x 5y EBITDA exit, 1% perpetuity growth rate). The offer price seems fair, with 40% of synergies accruing to Clipper shareholders. </li>
<li>This is a friendly deal with a compelling 49% premium. Considering GXO's M&amp;A experience, the merger should be successful. The spread (as of 28 February closing share prices) is 2.7%.</li>
</ul>


Consideration is 690p + 0.0359 new GXO shares, an implied equity value of £961 million. Multiples are 12.8x EV/Fwd EBITDA (vs. a median 11.3x for comparable M&amp;A transactions) and 33.3x Fwd P/E.
My TP for Clipper is 857p (DCF, WACC 9.5%, 9.0x 5y EBITDA exit, 1% perpetuity growth rate). The offer price seems fair, with 40% of synergies accruing to Clipper shareholders. 
This is a friendly deal with a compelling 49% premium. Considering GXO's M&amp;A experience, the merger should be successful. The spread (as of 28 February closing share prices) is 2.7%.


GXO Logistics/Clipper Logistics: Recommended Cash & Stock Offer

United States

GXO Logistics, Inc. operates as a contract logistics provider. The Company solves complex logistics challenges for its blue-chip customers with technologically advanced supply chain solutions, at scale, with speed. GXO Logistics serves clients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GXO Logistics (GXO US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

GXO/Wincanton: Scheme Document

GXO Logistics offers 605p for Wincanton PLC, a strategic move with a 104% premium and minimal antitrust concerns, amidst industry consolidation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

GXO Logistics/Clipper Logistics: Recommended Cash & Stock Offer

This is a friendly offer with a compelling premium, likely to close. Considering GXO's deal experience, the merger should be successful. Gross...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Giordano, C&F Logistics, Swire, Japan's Big Dividend

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

GXO/Wincanton: Scheme Document

​GXO Logistics offers 605p for Wincanton PLC, a strategic move with a 104% premium and minimal antitrust concerns, amidst industry consolidation.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

GXO Logistics/Clipper Logistics: Recommended Cash & Stock Offer

This is a friendly offer with a compelling premium, likely to close. Considering GXO's deal experience, the merger should be successful. Gross...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

GXO Logistics offers 605p for Wincanton PLC, a strategic move with a 104% premium and minimal antitrust concerns, amidst industry consolidation.