Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

Macroeconomics

We are calling for another rate cut and 3 further 50 bps cuts of the reserve requirement ratio in the first half of 2015, with the next rate cut being an increasing chance of late March (vs our original expectations of late Q2). In addition to&nbsp; a cut in lending rates, we believe there is a growing need to cut deposit rates further, if the current deflationary pressures remain. The central bank will desperately want to avoid a period of negative real rates, due to the detrimental effect it could have on consumption and investment.

We are calling for another rate cut and 3 further 50 bps cuts of the reserve requirement ratio in the first half of 2015, with the next rate cut being an increasing chance of late March (vs our original expectations of late Q2). In addition to&nbsp; a cut in lending rates, we believe there is a growing need to cut deposit rates further, if the current deflationary pressures remain. The central bank will desperately want to avoid a period of negative real rates, due to the detrimental effect it could have on consumption and investment. 

CHINA MACRO: Brining forward our expectations of monetary easing

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative announcements (corruption crackdowns, insider selling at SOEs, regulator speeding up IPO approvals), the KEY reason for the move was the margin trading suspension at three of the largest brokers in China. The brokers, banks and insurance sectors were all limit down. Below we look to explain:<ol><li>What changes to margin trading have been made, and the implications </li><li>How large margin trading in China is </li><li>Does this mean the government wants the stock market down </li><li>Our view on A-share market going forward </li></ol>

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative announcements (corruption crackdowns, insider selling at SOEs, regulator speeding up IPO approvals), the KEY reason for the move was the margin trading suspension at three of the largest brokers in China. The brokers, banks and insurance sectors were all limit down. Below we look to explain:What changes to margin trading have been made, and the implications How large margin trading in China is Does this mean the government wants the stock market down Our view on A-share market going forward 

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

China

Guolian Securities Co. Ltd. offers financial services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, margin trading, share transfer agency, and other financial services.

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Guolian Securities Co Ltd H (1456 HK)

CHINA MACRO: Brining forward our expectations of monetary easing

We are calling for another rate cut and 3 further 50 bps cuts of the reserve requirement ratio in the first half of 2015, with the next rate cut...

David Millhouse

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative...

David Millhouse

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)