Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guolian Securities Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND's buy streak was interrupted again this past week, but they still net bought, as did NORTHBOUND. HK stocks continued their rise with liquid Hs outperforming their As by 3.8%. </li>
<li>There were some BIG moves the past two weeks and Average AH Premia are now the lowest in nearly four years vs near 5yr wides less than 12 weeks ago. </li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND's buy streak was interrupted again this past week, but they still net bought, as did NORTHBOUND. HK stocks continued their rise with liquid Hs outperforming their As by 3.8%. 
There were some BIG moves the past two weeks and Average AH Premia are now the lowest in nearly four years vs near 5yr wides less than 12 weeks ago. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 May 2024):  Hs Rally Huge Vs As, Again. Avg A/H Premium Lowest in 4yrs

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>Back in February this year, various media sources reported that the key shareholders of warehouse/fund management play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a></strong>, were exploring options, including a privatisation.</li>
<li>Long-Term holders Warburg Pincus and Canadian pension fund OMERS hold 14% and 10.7% respectively. ESR co-founders/directors Jeffrey Shen, Stuart Gibson, Charles de Portes, and Hwee Chiang collectively hold another ~23%.</li>
<li>Shares in ESR were <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0513/2024051300060.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> this morning "<em>pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers</em>".</li>
</ul>


Back in February this year, various media sources reported that the key shareholders of warehouse/fund management play ESR Group (1821 HK), were exploring options, including a privatisation.
Long-Term holders Warburg Pincus and Canadian pension fund OMERS hold 14% and 10.7% respectively. ESR co-founders/directors Jeffrey Shen, Stuart Gibson, Charles de Portes, and Hwee Chiang collectively hold another ~23%.
Shares in ESR were suspended this morning "pursuant to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers".


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 107.4% as of May 31st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.3ppt week-on-week, led by financials, consumer discretionary, health care and offset by information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Huahong Semi, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 107.4% as of May 31st.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.3ppt week-on-week, led by financials, consumer discretionary, health care and offset by information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Huahong Semi, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium.


A-H Premium Weekly (May 31st): PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Huahong Semi

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND's buy streak continued this past week; every day was net positive. NORTHBOUND was net positive too. It is not clear how much is National Team buying. Much may be.</li>
<li>AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng and other HK indices fell sharply and A-shares did not fall as much. </li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND's buy streak continued this past week; every day was net positive. NORTHBOUND was net positive too. It is not clear how much is National Team buying. Much may be.
AH Premia rebounded off multi-year lows, on average, this past week as Hang Seng and other HK indices fell sharply and A-shares did not fall as much. 


A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024):  HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> is a laggard among the Chinese securities companies. With the rebound in HSI and Shanghai Composite, such divergence should narrow.</li>
<li>The investment banking business should recover following the rebound in the secondary market and equity valuations. HK's IPO funds raised are forecast to double in 2024.</li>
<li>At 0.4x 12-month P/B, the market has deeply discounted CICC's earnings outlook. However, as earnings recovery will be fast, its share price will react rapidly.</li>
</ul>



China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is a laggard among the Chinese securities companies. With the rebound in HSI and Shanghai Composite, such divergence should narrow.
The investment banking business should recover following the rebound in the secondary market and equity valuations. HK's IPO funds raised are forecast to double in 2024.
At 0.4x 12-month P/B, the market has deeply discounted CICC's earnings outlook. However, as earnings recovery will be fast, its share price will react rapidly.


China

Central China Securities Co., Ltd. is a securities company engaged in the brokerage, investment banking, investment management, and trading businesses primarily in China. The Company trades in stocks, funds, bonds, and commodity and financial futures on behalf of its clients; and provides margin financing, securities lending, and wealth management services.

BC Technology Group Limited operates as a technology and digital asset company. The Company provides software-as-a-service, brokerage, exchange, and insured custody services for institutions and professional investors. BC Technology Group also engages in China-focused advertising and business park area management services.

Noah Holdings Ltd. distributes wealth management products in China.  The Company serves high net-worth individuals; enterprises affiliated with high net-worth individuals; and wholesale clients, primarily local commercial banks or branches of national commercial banks which distribute wealth management products to their own clients.

Puyi Inc. provides wealth management services. The Company offers corporate finance and asset management services. Puyi distributes wealth management products both online and offline through our branch network in China.

Northeast Securities Co., Ltd. provides securities brokerage, trading, underwriting, asset management, investment consulting, and other financial services.

Shandong Internation Trust Co., Ltd. offers financing services. The Company provides capital trust, asset trust, investment banking, asset management, securities investment funds, and other services. Shandong Internation Trust offers services in China.

Shaanxi International Trust Co., Ltd. provides a variety of non-banking financial services. The Company's services include trust deposits, trust loans, trust investment, security trading, financing and leasing, guarantee, and other related services. The Company also invests in real estate development.

China Industrial Securities International Financial Group Limited provides financial services. The Company offers brokerage, loans, financing, and investment management services. China Industrial Securities International Financial Group serves customers around the world.

Luzheng Futures Co. Ltd. provides brokerage services. The Company offers futures brokerage, investment consultation, assets management, and other related services.

Forise International Limited engages in corporate advisory, financial solution, and management consultancy businesses. The Company provides strategic planning, corporate advisory, financial restructuring, advisory and management consultancy services. Forise International serves clients in China.

Bengal & Assam Company Ltd. is an investment company.  The Company derives its revenues from dividend income it receives from companies in which it holds investments; interest income; and rental income.

JM Financial Limited is a holding company which has subsidiaries in all major financial services. The Company's services include investment banking, institutional and retail brokerage, asset management (MF & alternative assets), commodities and asset reconstruction.

Avantax, Inc. operates as a technology-enabled financial service company. The Company offers financial advisory, wealth management, and retirement planning services, as well as tax-smart investing services. Avantax serves consumers, small businesses, and tax professionals in the United States.

JSW Holdings Limited is an investment holding company.  The Company invests in the shares of companies.

Hanwha Investment & Securities Co Ltd offers various financial services, such as securities dealing, brokerage, foreign exchange, corporate financing, and underwriting services. The Company also provides various services, such as stock index futures and options trading, mutual funds sales, bonds trading,online trading, and investment trust accounts.

Ichigo Inc. is a value-add real estate company. The Company's three key businesses are Value-Add, in which Ichigo acquires and improves mid-sized, prime location real estate, Asset Management including the Ichigo Office REIT (8975), and Clean Energy, in which Ichigo builds and operates solar power plants  on disused land nationwide.

IOOF Holdings Limited is a financial services company operating in Australia. The Company's services include personal superannuation, allocated pension services, employee superannuation retirement services and investment services.

Monex Group, Inc. is a holding company, which was established through merger between Monex and Nikko Beans. The Company manages its subsidiaries that provides investing services for self-directed investors through Internet and telephone.

Religare Enterprises Limited is a holding company for one of India's diversified financial services groups. The Company offers an integrated suite of financial services through its underlying subsidiaries and operating entities, including loans to SMEs, capital markets, wealth management, life and health insurance, and asset management.

Centuria Capital Group manages a diversified portfolio of investment funds and offers financial  services.  The Company manages funds of unlisted property investments; and offers investment  bonds, education plans, insurance and home loans.

Guolian Securities Co. Ltd. offers financial services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, margin trading, share transfer agency, and other financial services.

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Guolian Securities Co Ltd H (1456 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 May 2024): Hs Rally Huge Vs As, Again. Avg A/H Premium Lowest in 4yrs

AH Premia now the lowest, on average, for nearly four years. This is against near-5yr highs just 12wks ago. Hs are moving on foreign flows into HK...

Travis Lundy

ESR Group (1821 HK): Offer Musings

As it expands throughout the region, it is arguable ESR has been unfairly penalised by HKEx's protracted bear run. A move away from the HKEx does...

David Blennerhassett

A-H Premium Weekly (May 31st): PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Huahong Semi

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Hua...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024): HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In

HK stocks fell sharply as A-shares did not fall as much. AH Premia bounced off multi-year lows (as an average) with banks/financials bearing the...

Travis Lundy

CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time

CICC is a laggard among Chinese securities companies. With the market rebound, its earnings and share price are set to improve rapidly. Its 0.4x P...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 17 May 2024): Hs Rally Huge Vs As, Again. Avg A/H Premium Lowest in 4yrs

AH Premia now the lowest, on average, for nearly four years. This is against near-5yr highs just 12wks ago. Hs are moving on foreign flows into HK...

Travis Lundy

ESR Group (1821 HK): Offer Musings

As it expands throughout the region, it is arguable ESR has been unfairly penalised by HKEx's protracted bear run. A move away from the HKEx does...

David Blennerhassett

A-H Premium Weekly (May 31st): PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Huahong Semi

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for PetroChina, Chinalco, Tsingtao Brewery, Huanneg Power, Hua...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 May 2024): HK Stocks Have a BAD Week and AH Premium Rebounds In

HK stocks fell sharply as A-shares did not fall as much. AH Premia bounced off multi-year lows (as an average) with banks/financials bearing the...

Travis Lundy

CICC (3908 HK): Soon to Be Its Time

​CICC is a laggard among Chinese securities companies. With the market rebound, its earnings and share price are set to improve rapidly. Its 0.4x P...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CICC is a laggard among Chinese securities companies. With the market rebound, its earnings and share price are set to improve rapidly. Its 0.4x P...