Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Gungho Online Entertainment / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gungho on Monday announced results, with both revenues and earnings up.</li>
<li>They also announced a buyback, which at current price means about 2.8% of shares out. </li>
<li>That doesn't sound like a lot, but context matters. It may matter a great deal. </li>
</ul>


Gungho on Monday announced results, with both revenues and earnings up.
They also announced a buyback, which at current price means about 2.8% of shares out. 
That doesn't sound like a lot, but context matters. It may matter a great deal. 


Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>Krafton’s IPO is having a rather inauspicious start, opening down almost 10% from its KRW498,000 IPO price and falling as much as 20% at its intraday lows. That they somehow managed to convince some investors to pay up at the high end of the downwardly revised range should be considered a godsend, but with the stock falling so dramatically, should you be chasing this downwards?</p>

Krafton’s IPO is having a rather inauspicious start, opening down almost 10% from its KRW498,000 IPO price and falling as much as 20% at its intraday lows. That they somehow managed to convince some investors to pay up at the high end of the downwardly revised range should be considered a godsend, but with the stock falling so dramatically, should you be chasing this downwards?

Krafton IPO – Should You Chase This Down?

<p>Krafton appears to be doing the PR rounds regarding investor interest in its IPO. <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/IPO/Krafton-expects-IPO-success-as-big-investors-show-interest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Nikkei</a> and various other news outlets had some positive sounding stories. If Krafton does indeed manage to price at the top end of its range or above we think that would be a fantastic opportunity for investors...</p>

Krafton appears to be doing the PR rounds regarding investor interest in its IPO. The Nikkei and various other news outlets had some positive sounding stories. If Krafton does indeed manage to price at the top end of its range or above we think that would be a fantastic opportunity for investors...

Krafton IPO - A Few Thoughts on Its IP and the Tencent Relationship

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div style="text-align: center;"><strong>• NET GAIN • </strong></div><div><div class="content-caption">
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/590/original/2021-02-19_07-20-52.png?1613686864" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189590"></figure><p></p></section> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></div><div>
<p><strong>NET GAIN</strong> - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/591/original/2021-02-19_07-29-59.png?1613687413" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189591"></figure></section><p><strong>TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM)</strong> - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/595/original/2021-02-19_07-38-34.png?1613687927" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189595"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS</strong> - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. </p>
</div><section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/596/original/2021-02-19_07-40-09.png?1613688021" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189596"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>POSITIVE MOMENTUM</strong> - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   </p></section><div></div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/597/original/2021-02-19_08-02-24.png?1613689355" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189597"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/694/original/2021-02-19_16-02-06.png?1613718138" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189694"></figure><hr></section><p><strong>SECTOR BREAKDOWN</strong> - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are <strong>Other Commercial Products</strong>, <strong>Autos</strong>,<strong> Other Consumer Products</strong>, <strong>Metals</strong>, and <strong>Building Materials.</strong> The RRS 'losers' are <strong>Utilities</strong>, <strong>Internet Content &amp; Services</strong>, <strong>Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,</strong><strong>Retail</strong>, and <strong>Healthcare</strong>.  </p>
</div><div>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/700/original/2021-02-19_16-05-32.png?1613718344" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189700"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/701/original/2021-02-19_16-06-12.png?1613718383" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189701"></figure></section><hr>
</div><section></section><div><div>
<p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.</p>
<hr>
<p></p>
</div></div>

• NET GAIN • 
 Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics
NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of  Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8%  higher than three months ago - an increase of  ¥5.2 trillion. As a result, the market's forward earnings multiple has declined to 28 times following a 10% increase in total market value (ex REITs). The increase in forecast operating income is a more modest 10.2% reflecting the degree of previously-projected COVID-related extraordinary losses.
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS (TTM) - Trailing revenues and operating profits are still falling by 9.9% and 26.3%, respectively; however, operating income rose by 4.1% quarter-on-quarter as margins improved by 30 basis points. Despite a reasonable effort at cost-cutting, aggregate operating margins are still  228 bps below their mid-2018 peak, and it will take at least another eight quarters for that gap to be closed.
FORECASTS - The majority of companies are forecasting for the year ending next month. Despite no change in the aggregate revenue forecast, the outlook for operating income increased by ¥3.7 trillion during the quarter resulting in a 50 bps operating margin uplift. 
POSITIVE MOMENTUM - Both our forward-looking Results Score and Results &amp; Revision Score have returned to the positive after less than one year. Whether this merits a new thirty-year high in TOPIX is, however, a moot point. We would note that the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions for December turned down for the first time since April 2020.   
SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The leading sectors in terms of one-month change in Results &amp; Revision Score are Other Commercial Products, Autos, Other Consumer Products, Metals, and Building Materials. The RRS 'losers' are Utilities, Internet Content &amp; Services, Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco,Retail, and Healthcare.  



In the DETAIL section below, we shall review the actual results and initial and revised forecasts by Sector and highlight the best and worst-performing companies by one-quarter revenue and margin changes.




🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

<p>With the last two results 'stragglers' reporting yesterday, our 'best' and 'worst' pair is self-selecting - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gungho-online-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6604:1" rel="noopener">Gungho Online Entertainment (3765 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>, although the latter scored positively for both its full-year results and FY21 forecast. Our quarterly results and revisions wrap will follow later in the week.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/149/original/2021-02-17_06-21-53.png?1613510525" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189149"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/189/150/original/2021-02-17_06-22-46.png?1613510580" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="189150"></figure></section><div class="content-caption">   Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div>

With the last two results 'stragglers' reporting yesterday, our 'best' and 'worst' pair is self-selecting - Gungho Online Entertainment (3765 JP) and Bridgestone (5108 JP), although the latter scored positively for both its full-year results and FY21 forecast. Our quarterly results and revisions wrap will follow later in the week.   Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/​​16 - GungHo & Bridgestone

Japan

GungHo Online Entertainment, Inc. develops and distributes Internet games. The Company also develops applications for smartphones.

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Gungho Online Entertainment (3765 JP)

Gungho Is Gungho for Gungho (3765 JP)

Gungho Online Entertainment is the owner of long-time popular game Puzzles & Dragons plus Gravity's Ragnarok franchise. And it is buying back...

Travis Lundy

Krafton IPO – Should You Chase This Down?

Despite the double digit fall vs. its IPO price we feel that risks for Krafton remain skewed to the downside and that it is the most attractive...

Mio Kato

Krafton IPO - A Few Thoughts on Its IP and the Tencent Relationship

If Krafton manages to price at the top end of its range or above as rumoured we think that would be a fantastic opportunity for investors...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8% higher than three months ago - an...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/16 - GungHo & Bridgestone

With the last two results 'stragglers' reporting yesterday, our 'best' and 'worst' pair is self-selecting - Gungho Online Entertainment (3765 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gungho Is Gungho for Gungho (3765 JP)

Gungho Online Entertainment is the owner of long-time popular game Puzzles & Dragons plus Gravity's Ragnarok franchise. And it is buying back...

Travis Lundy

Krafton IPO – Should You Chase This Down?

Despite the double digit fall vs. its IPO price we feel that risks for Krafton remain skewed to the downside and that it is the most attractive...

Mio Kato

Krafton IPO - A Few Thoughts on Its IP and the Tencent Relationship

If Krafton manages to price at the top end of its range or above as rumoured we think that would be a fantastic opportunity for investors...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP - Winter 2020 Results & Revisions Review

NET GAIN - Forecast Aggregate Net Income for the universe of Japanese listed companies ended the quarter 23.8% higher than three months ago - an...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/​​16 - GungHo & Bridgestone

With the last two results 'stragglers' reporting yesterday, our 'best' and 'worst' pair is self-selecting - Gungho Online Entertainment (3765 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 02/16 - GungHo & Bridgestone