Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In April 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a>'s surprising VTO for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a> was conditional, inter alia, on a waiver NOT to make a downstream offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a>.</li>
<li>Now Gulf has announced an intention to acquire Intouch's 41.13% stake in Thaicom for Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close, the completion of which triggers an MTO.</li>
<li>The acquisition of shares from Intouch requires approval from Intouch shareholders. Gulf, with 46.44% of shares out, is required to abstain. </li>
</ul>


In April 2021, Gulf Energy (GULF TB)'s surprising VTO for Intouch (INTUCH TB) was conditional, inter alia, on a waiver NOT to make a downstream offer for Thaicom (THCOM TB).
Now Gulf has announced an intention to acquire Intouch's 41.13% stake in Thaicom for Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close, the completion of which triggers an MTO.
The acquisition of shares from Intouch requires approval from Intouch shareholders. Gulf, with 46.44% of shares out, is required to abstain. 


Singtel Holds The Key To Gulf Energy's Takeunder For Thaicom

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:949:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)</a>'s shareholders approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl-ca1a971f-2f70-4565-b1fd-dda5b533acd3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27653:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-broadband-internet-infrastructure-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:86:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.</li>
<li>Separately, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a> merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.</li>
</ul>



Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)'s shareholders approved Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB).
The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.
Separately, the DTAC / True merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.


Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s discount to NAV is back to levels last seen in November 2021, where euphoric trading was rolling over subsequent to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a>'s VTO.</li>
<li>Intouch's net cash increased in the 2Q22 and its look-through interim dividend payout is the highest in at least five years.</li>
<li>I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>, with a view to mean reversion of ~25% NAV discount. </li>
</ul>



Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s discount to NAV is back to levels last seen in November 2021, where euphoric trading was rolling over subsequent to Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)'s VTO.
Intouch's net cash increased in the 2Q22 and its look-through interim dividend payout is the highest in at least five years.
I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB), with a view to mean reversion of ~25% NAV discount. 


Intouch's NAV Discount Not Supported By Higher Look-Through Payout

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Thai Life Insurance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal.</li>
<li>Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about allocation and the trading dynamics</li>
</ul>


Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal.
Thai Life Insurance is one of the largest life insurance companies in Thailand, third by assets. As of Mar 2022, it had 64,000 insurance agents.
In this note, we talk about allocation and the trading dynamics


Thai Life Insurance IPO Trading - One for Domestics and Cornerstones

Thailand

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd. (GPSC) provides utilities services. The Company generates and distributes electricity, steam, and processed water. GPSC serves customers in Thailand.

Global Power Synergy Company Ltd (GPSC TB)

Electricity Generating Public Company Limited is an electric utility holding company.  The Company, through its two major subsidiaries, produces and supplies electricity to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), under long term power purchase agreements of 20 and 15 years.  It also operates energy related businesses through joint ventures.

Ratch Group PCL operates as a power producer company. The Company focuses on investment fossil fuel power generation and renewable projects, as well as businesses adjacent to electricity generation and energy. Ratchaburi Group serves customers in Asia.

B.Grimm Power Public Company Limited operates as a renewable energy company. The Company focuses on the development, financing, construction, and operation of green field power plants. B.Grimm Power also renders electricity distribution, operations, and maintenance services. B.Grimm Power serves clients in Asia.

CK Power PCL develops and generates power. The Company operates in Thailand.

Banpu Power PCL operats power plants in Thailand, Laos, China and Japan.

TPI Polene Power Public Company Limited operates waste heat recovery power plants and oil and natural gas (NGV) stations. The Company conducts business in Thailand.

TPI Polene Power Public Company (TPIPP TB)

Energy Absolute Public Company Limited engages in the research, development, and production of biodiesel products in Thailand.

Super Energy Corporation Public Company Limited produces and distributes electricity using solar and alternative energy sources. The Company also offers information technology services. Super Energy Corporation serves customers in Thailand.

SPCG PCL is an alternative energy company that is developing solar farms.  The Company is developing solar farms located in the Northeastern region of Thailand.

Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co., Ltd. invests in electric power projects through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops and manufactures cable, railroad control systems and other automation equipment.

China Resources Power Holdings Company Limited is a power generation company. The Company invests, develops, owns, and operates coal-fired power plants in China.

NHPC Ltd is a hydro-power development company based in India. The Company has constructed approximately 11 hydro-power projects in India and abroad with a total installed capacity of 2554.35 MW.

JSW Energy Limited generates power by using Corex gas and coal. The Company, through its subsidiary, also operates lignite thermal power plant in Rajasthan and has a capacity to produce 3,140 megawatts of electricity. JSW is also present in the power trading and transmission businesses.

NRG Energy, Inc. owns and operates a diverse portfolio of power-generating facilities, primarily in the United States.  The Company's operations include energy production and cogeneration facilities, thermal energy production, and energy resource recovery facilities.

GD Power Development Co., Ltd. generates and distributes electric power and heat throughout China.  The Company also invests in new energy development and environmental protection projects.

Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd. supplies electric power through operating thermal power generation.  The Company also involves in the research and development of electric power, power and energy-saving technology development, technical consulting, sales of energy-saving products, electrical engineering and asset management.

Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power A (600023 CH)

EDP Renovaveis SA designs, develops, manages and operates power plants. The Company generates electricity using renewable energy sources mostly wind energy.

Huaneng Power International, Inc. develops, constructs, owns and operates coal-fired power plants throughout China. It also builds gas-fired, hydroelectric and wind power generation in China and owns Tuas Power which controls power generation facilities in Singapore.

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

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Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)

Singtel Holds The Key To Gulf Energy's Takeunder For Thaicom

This is a low-balled Offer from Gulf, Singtel can scupper the transaction. But would they want to be immersed in the politics overseeing the...

David Blennerhassett

Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

I'd still be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info. I believe a more reasonable discount to NAV target is >20%.

David Blennerhassett

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

Intouch's NAV Discount Not Supported By Higher Look-Through Payout

I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying AIS. I think a more reasonable discount to NAV is >20%. Gulf's holding remains problematic though, and...

David Blennerhassett

Thai Life Insurance IPO Trading - One for Domestics and Cornerstones

Thai Life Insurance (TLI) raised around US$975m in its Thailand IPO. Cornerstone investors, including GIC, took up around 54% of the deal. In this...

Sumeet Singh

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