Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Two days before Huawei and Chery releasing their Luxeed S7 sedan to rival Model 3, LI unveiled the technical details of its MPV entry MEGA; </li>
<li>We see MEGA taking a meaningful market share from BYD’s Denza D9, GM’s GL8, GAC’s Trumpchi M8, all selling ~10K a month. We raise MEGA’s 2024 shipment to 57K;</li>
<li>We raise LI’s TP from US$40 to US$47 and maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


Two days before Huawei and Chery releasing their Luxeed S7 sedan to rival Model 3, LI unveiled the technical details of its MPV entry MEGA; 
We see MEGA taking a meaningful market share from BYD’s Denza D9, GM’s GL8, GAC’s Trumpchi M8, all selling ~10K a month. We raise MEGA’s 2024 shipment to 57K;
We raise LI’s TP from US$40 to US$47 and maintain BUY.


[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$47) Target Price Change]: Li’s MEGA Can Change the MPV Landscape

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Chenqi Technology Limited / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chenqi-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40058:1" rel="noopener">Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK)</a> is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. </li>
<li>Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent. </li>
<li>Chenqi has grown its GTV fast on the back of network expansion. However, Dida’s inability to list and Chinese regulators’ scrutiny on Didi would likely dent sentiment surrounding Chenqi. </li>
</ul>



Chenqi Technology Limited (CT HK) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
Chenqi Technology (Chenqi) is a mobility technology and service company in China, founded by the GAC Group and Tencent. 
Chenqi has grown its GTV fast on the back of network expansion. However, Dida’s inability to list and Chinese regulators’ scrutiny on Didi would likely dent sentiment surrounding Chenqi. 


Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO - Listing Would Almost Feel like a Pipe Dream

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener"> BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/1519.HK/: Express parcel volume grew +20% YoY during first week of 11.11 Shopping (+) </a></li>
<li>BEKE: Property Update - Mild recovery for existing home sales in October and 1st week of November</li>
<li>XPEV: Xpeng, Huawei dispute over Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) (-)</li>
</ul>


 BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/1519.HK/: Express parcel volume grew +20% YoY during first week of 11.11 Shopping (+) 
BEKE: Property Update - Mild recovery for existing home sales in October and 1st week of November
XPEV: Xpeng, Huawei dispute over Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) (-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/BEKE/XPEV/NIO/LI/BGNE

<ul>
<li>The rapid ascending Huawei EV ecosystem is threatening everyone except BYD and Tesla. XPEV is the next in line after NIO;</li>
<li>We do view Xiaomi as offering an alternative to Huawei to present a unified IOT user experience. But now is too early to judge Xiaomi’s success and XPEV’s role;</li>
<li>We cut the TP from US$24.3 to US$18 and maintain BUY.</li>
</ul>


The rapid ascending Huawei EV ecosystem is threatening everyone except BYD and Tesla. XPEV is the next in line after NIO;
We do view Xiaomi as offering an alternative to Huawei to present a unified IOT user experience. But now is too early to judge Xiaomi’s success and XPEV’s role;
We cut the TP from US$24.3 to US$18 and maintain BUY.


[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$18) Target Price Change]: Does Xiaopeng Need Xiaomi to Survive?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We summarize the Oct 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li><li>In general, new orders per store for most brands have been rising MoM since Apr 2023, which have been consistent with our prior projection that NEV market share in China could rise sequentially for the remainder of the year. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We summarize the Oct 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.In general, new orders per store for most brands have been rising MoM since Apr 2023, which have been consistent with our prior projection that NEV market share in China could rise sequentially for the remainder of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Improving Leading Indicators Imply Strong 4Q23

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$47) Target Price Change]: Li’s MEGA Can Change the MPV Landscape

"LI unveils technical details of MEGA MPV, expected to compete with Denza D9, GL8, and Trumpchi M8. Shipment estimate raised to 57K by 2024. LI's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO - Listing Would Almost Feel like a Pipe Dream

Chenqi Technology Limited is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Dida’s inability to list and Chinese regulators’ scrutiny on...

Ethan Aw

[Blue Lotus Daily]BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/BEKE/XPEV/NIO/LI/BGNE

Daily news including JD.com, Alibaba, PDD Holdings, ZTO Express Cayman, J&T Global Express, KE Holdings, XPeng, and Li Auto.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$18) Target Price Change]: Does Xiaopeng Need Xiaomi to Survive?

Huawei's EV ecosystem poses a threat to many, except BYD and Tesla. XPEV follows NIO, while Xiaomi's success and XPEV's role are yet to be...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Auto Sector – Improving Leading Indicators Imply Strong 4Q23

We summarize the Oct 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, BUY, TP US$47) Target Price Change]: Li’s MEGA Can Change the MPV Landscape

​"LI unveils technical details of MEGA MPV, expected to compete with Denza D9, GL8, and Trumpchi M8. Shipment estimate raised to 57K by 2024. LI's...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Chenqi Technology Pre-IPO - Listing Would Almost Feel like a Pipe Dream

Chenqi Technology Limited is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Dida’s inability to list and Chinese regulators’ scrutiny on...

Ethan Aw

[Blue Lotus Daily]BABA/PDD/JD/ZTO/BEKE/XPEV/NIO/LI/BGNE

Daily news including JD.com, Alibaba, PDD Holdings, ZTO Express Cayman, J&T Global Express, KE Holdings, XPeng, and Li Auto.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[XPeng Inc. (XPEV US, BUY, TP US$18) Target Price Change]: Does Xiaopeng Need Xiaomi to Survive?

Huawei's EV ecosystem poses a threat to many, except BYD and Tesla. XPEV follows NIO, while Xiaomi's success and XPEV's role are yet to be...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Auto Sector – Improving Leading Indicators Imply Strong 4Q23

We summarize the Oct 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

"LI unveils technical details of MEGA MPV, expected to compete with Denza D9, GL8, and Trumpchi M8. Shipment estimate raised to 57K by 2024. LI's...