IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.</li>
<li>This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. </li>
<li>Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.
This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. 
Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 104.8% as of Nov 15th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 6.9ppt week-on-week, led by financials, information technology, consumer discretionary and offset by communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Chalco, CICC, HUAHONG GROUP, CanSinoBIO.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 104.8% as of Nov 15th.
The average A-H premium changed by 6.9ppt week-on-week, led by financials, information technology, consumer discretionary and offset by communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Chalco, CICC, HUAHONG GROUP, CanSinoBIO.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 15th):Chalco, CICC, HUAHONG GROUP, CanSinoBIO

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.8% as of Nov 8th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.1ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, real estate, financials and offset by consumer staples, information technology, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BAIYUNSHAN PH, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.8% as of Nov 8th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.1ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, real estate, financials and offset by consumer staples, information technology, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for BAIYUNSHAN PH, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 8th):Baiyunshan, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.6% as of Nov 1st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, information technology, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Chalco, ZOOMLION, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.6% as of Nov 1st.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.7ppt week-on-week, led by utilities, information technology, materials.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Chalco, ZOOMLION, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO.


A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 1st):Chalco, ZOOMLION, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>’s monthly update notes that the consortium has secured SAMR approval and made progress in obtaining the other regulatory approvals. </li>
<li>As expected, the precondition will not be satisfied before the 18 October long stop date. Unexpectedly, whether the consortium members will consent to the extension remains uncertain.</li>
<li>The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from a deal break, the time investment is significant, and the warning was legally required.</li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)’s monthly update notes that the consortium has secured SAMR approval and made progress in obtaining the other regulatory approvals. 
As expected, the precondition will not be satisfied before the 18 October long stop date. Unexpectedly, whether the consortium members will consent to the extension remains uncertain.
The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from a deal break, the time investment is significant, and the warning was legally required.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Theatre of the Absurd

China

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells Chinese patent medicine. The Company also wholesales, retails, imports, and exports Western and Chinese pharmaceutical products and various medical apparatus.

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings (874 HK)

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings (874 HK)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price

This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. Shareholders will have a bruising...

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 15th):Chalco, CICC, HUAHONG GROUP, CanSinoBIO

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Chalco, CICC, HUAHONG GROUP, CanSinoBIO.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 8th):Baiyunshan, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for baiyunshan, SMIC, PICC, CHINA LIFE, FDZJ.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Nov 1st):Chalco, ZOOMLION, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Chalco, ZOOMLION, FDZJ, FLAT GROUP, RemeGen, CanSinoBIO.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Theatre of the Absurd

The update will do little to soothe frayed nerves. The extension will be forthcoming as the delay is procedural, there is a reputational risk from...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)