Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. </li>
<li>We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We revise GAC Group (GAC)’s FY24E net profit by 4% to RMB6.3bn, largely due to resilient equity income from joint ventures (JVs) and associates.</li><li>We expect Aion to be at a breakeven level in FY24E, and we are of the view that Aion needs quality growth in 2024. We believe GAC’s current valuation is attractive.</li><li>We project 4Q23E net profit to be RMB218mn. GAC’s 4Q earnings every year are the most volatile compared with other quarters, making it difficult for us to forecast.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We revise GAC Group (GAC)’s FY24E net profit by 4% to RMB6.3bn, largely due to resilient equity income from joint ventures (JVs) and associates.We expect Aion to be at a breakeven level in FY24E, and we are of the view that Aion needs quality growth in 2024. We believe GAC’s current valuation is attractive.We project 4Q23E net profit to be RMB218mn. GAC’s 4Q earnings every year are the most volatile compared with other quarters, making it difficult for us to forecast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GAC Group (2238 HK) - FY24E NP to Rise YoY on JVs and Aion

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished.</li>
<li>STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished.
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>Absolutely STONKING performance this past week - +1.62% Friday to Friday across 42 trades. Positive performance in every sector. Portfolio at new high. Southbound inflows. BigCapHighDiv SOE outflows.</li>
<li>Short sales this week now need 100% in the account for hedge funds. And the MSS claims some are short-selling or talking bearishly on stocks for political reasons.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Absolutely STONKING performance this past week - +1.62% Friday to Friday across 42 trades. Positive performance in every sector. Portfolio at new high. Southbound inflows. BigCapHighDiv SOE outflows.
Short sales this week now need 100% in the account for hedge funds. And the MSS claims some are short-selling or talking bearishly on stocks for political reasons.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. GAC’s 3Q23 earnings beat, as Aion turned profitable, which could be a positive catalyst. Equity income from JVs was also more resilient than expected.</li><li>We project GAC’s FY24E NP to rise 31% YoY to RMB 6.1bn.</li><li>3Q23 earnings beat. GAC’s 3Q23 revenue was 2% lower than our prior forecast while its GPM widened by 4.1 ppts QoQ and beat our projection by 3 ppts. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. GAC’s 3Q23 earnings beat, as Aion turned profitable, which could be a positive catalyst. Equity income from JVs was also more resilient than expected.We project GAC’s FY24E NP to rise 31% YoY to RMB 6.1bn.3Q23 earnings beat. GAC’s 3Q23 revenue was 2% lower than our prior forecast while its GPM widened by 4.1 ppts QoQ and beat our projection by 3 ppts. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GAC Group (2238 HK) – Aion’s Turning Profitable as a Positive Catalyst

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. operates as a passenger car manufacturer. The Company engages in research, development, and marketing of new energy vehicles and power battery system. BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology conducts businesses in China.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Techn (600733 CH)

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets bus and truck chassis, gear boxes, other auto parts, and business automobiles.

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd, through joint ventures, manufactures and markets cars and auto parts.  The Company produces automobiles, transmission systems, and engines.  FAW Car also provides auto repair and customizing services.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited develops, manufactures, and markets mini cars, mini sedans, full size sedans, and engines.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)

Li Auto Inc. manufactures automobiles. The Company designs, develops, and sells smart new energy electric sport utility vehicles. Li Auto conducts businesses in China.

BAIC Motor Corporation Limited designs, researches, develops, manufactures and sells a variety of passenger vehicles in China.

Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited, through joint ventures, designs, manufactures, and markets diesel engines, light trucks, automobiles, castings, and related spare parts.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

Isuzu Motors Limited manufactures and markets trucks and automobile parts. The Company's products include pickup trucks, light/heavy duty trucks, medium and large-sized buses, recreational vehicles, and sport utility vehicles.

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company Limited manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company vehicles, motorcycles, and other products. Guangzhou Automobile Group also provides automobile parts manufacturing, automotive business services, automotive finance, and other services.

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Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238 CH)

GAC Group (2238 HK) - FY24E NP to Rise YoY on JVs and Aion

We revise GAC Group (GAC)’s FY24E net profit by 4% to RMB6.3bn, largely due to resilient equity income from joint ventures (JVs) and associates

CMB International

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

Large cap and liquid Hs in H/A Pairs underperformed their As by 60bp, most of that on Friday on the gaming news. High A premium pairs saw Hs...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?

The Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor continues onward and upward. Stonking 13th week. Now at new highs. +3.8% perf for the three months. 5 new trades...

Travis Lundy

GAC Group (2238 HK) – Aion’s Turning Profitable as a Positive Catalyst

Maintain BUY. GAC’s 3Q23 earnings beat, as Aion turned profitable, which could be a positive catalyst. Equity income from JVs was also more...

CMB International

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The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

Quiddity's New & Improved And Really Quite Spiffy H/A Discount Monitor. All the H/A Pairs, universe & sector metrics, with interactive tables and...

Travis Lundy

GAC Group (2238 HK) - FY24E NP to Rise YoY on JVs and Aion

We revise GAC Group (GAC)’s FY24E net profit by 4% to RMB6.3bn, largely due to resilient equity income from joint ventures (JVs) and associates

CMB International

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

Large cap and liquid Hs in H/A Pairs underperformed their As by 60bp, most of that on Friday on the gaming news. High A premium pairs saw Hs...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?

The Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor continues onward and upward. Stonking 13th week. Now at new highs. +3.8% perf for the three months. 5 new trades...

Travis Lundy

GAC Group (2238 HK) – Aion’s Turning Profitable as a Positive Catalyst

Maintain BUY. GAC’s 3Q23 earnings beat, as Aion turned profitable, which could be a positive catalyst. Equity income from JVs was also more...

CMB International