Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<p>Short selling has finally resumed in Korea and it has been a busy couple of days on that front with foreign investors piling into stocks that have run up more than their peers over the last year and are potentially overvalued.</p><p>Long/short pairs could be implemented in Korea during the short sell ban if you had long inventory or if there were listed single stock futures on the short leg.</p><p>With short selling permitted on constituents of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a>, we take a look at long/short pairs where both stocks are members of the index. These pairs belong to the same GICS sub-industry, are correlated and exhibit mean-reversion. We also use short sale data from the last couple of trading sessions to see which stocks are being targeted by short sellers.</p>

Short selling has finally resumed in Korea and it has been a busy couple of days on that front with foreign investors piling into stocks that have run up more than their peers over the last year and are potentially overvalued.Long/short pairs could be implemented in Korea during the short sell ban if you had long inventory or if there were listed single stock futures on the short leg.With short selling permitted on constituents of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX), we take a look at long/short pairs where both stocks are members of the index. These pairs belong to the same GICS sub-industry, are correlated and exhibit mean-reversion. We also use short sale data from the last couple of trading sessions to see which stocks are being targeted by short sellers.

Korea Pair Trades: High Risk/Reward Names with Short Sell Screen

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<p>GS Retail merger swap with GS Home Shopping is still in progress. It is a stock swap. The GS Home Shopping shareholders will get 4.22368 GS Retail shares for each GS Home Shopping share.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Overview (₩B)"}'>Overview (₩B)</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Type"}'>Type</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stock swap"}'>Stock swap</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Acquirer"}'>Acquirer</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GS Retail Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>GS Retail Co Ltd (007070)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Target company"}'>Target company</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GS Home Shopping Inc."}' data-sheets-formula='=googlefinance(R[1]C[0], "name")'>GS Home Shopping Inc. (028150)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Offering price"}'><strong>Swap price for GS Retail</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":33800}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}'><strong>₩33,800</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Target price"}'><strong>Swap price for GS Home Shopping</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":142762}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"[$₩-412]#,##0","3":1}'><strong>₩142,762</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Swap ratio"}'><strong>Swap ratio</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":4.2236834}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":2,"2":"#,##0.0000000","3":1}'><strong>4.2236834</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><div>
<p>May 28 is the big day to ger shareholder approval for the merger. Stock repurchase right exercise will proceed on May 28 to June 17.</p>
<p>Of course, it is only for those who purchased the shares before November 11 last year. But stock swap arb trade? Everyone can do it any time from now until the trade suspension begins June 29.</p>
<table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="300">
<col width="300">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Timetable"}' data-sheets-note="Sang Hyun Park: We have to buy shares until BOD+1 to be eligible to receive stock purchase rights. We then have to notify our dissenting opinion until the end of dissenting opinion notice period.">Timetable</td></tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Dissenting opinion notice begins"}'>Dissenting opinion notice</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44329}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>5. 13 ~ 27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"EGM"}'><strong>EGM</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44344}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>5. 28</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Stock purchase right exercise begins"}'><strong>Stock purchase right exercise</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44344}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>5. 28 ~ 6. 17</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Trade suspension begins - GS Home Shopping"}'>Trade suspension (GS Home Shopping)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44376}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'>6. 29 ~ 7. 15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'><strong>Listing</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44393}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>7. 16</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>

GS Retail merger swap with GS Home Shopping is still in progress. It is a stock swap. The GS Home Shopping shareholders will get 4.22368 GS Retail shares for each GS Home Shopping share.





Overview (₩B)

Type
Stock swap


Acquirer
GS Retail Co Ltd (007070)


Target company
GS Home Shopping Inc. (028150)


Swap price for GS Retail
₩33,800


Swap price for GS Home Shopping
₩142,762


Swap ratio
4.2236834

Source: DART


May 28 is the big day to ger shareholder approval for the merger. Stock repurchase right exercise will proceed on May 28 to June 17.
Of course, it is only for those who purchased the shares before November 11 last year. But stock swap arb trade? Everyone can do it any time from now until the trade suspension begins June 29.






Timetable

Dissenting opinion notice
5. 13 ~ 27


EGM
5. 28


Stock purchase right exercise
5. 28 ~ 6. 17


Trade suspension (GS Home Shopping)
6. 29 ~ 7. 15


Listing
7. 16

Source: DART




GS Retail Merger Swap Arb Trade Begins This Monday

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight"><p>In this insight, we highlight the closing of the pricing gaps between the major Korean holdcos and opcos, especially with the upcoming end of the ban on the short selling of shares in Korea in May. In this insight, we highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.</p></div><p>Just a reminder that the ban on short selling of KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 included stocks will remain in place until May 2nd and investors will be able to resume their shorting on these 350 stocks starting on May 3rd. Once this ban on short selling of stocks ends, there could be more investors that may look to add to the holdco shares and short the opco shares (especially among the pairs where the holdco shares have underperformed the opco shares in the past year). However, some of these moves have already started to take place in the past few weeks, which could reduce the overall profits on the pair trades. </p><p>Traditionally, the pair trades involving Korean holdcos and opcos have been a trading strategy that many hedge funds have employed for many years. However, the ban on short selling of stocks in Korea have prevented many of these funds from employing these pair trade strategies. Once the ban ends, you will likely see these funds becoming more active in these trading methods once again. </p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>In the section below, we separated the pair trades into two different sections. The first table involves major opcos outperforming holdcos (regular and quasi) in the past year. Of the 26 pair trade strategies mentioned in this insight, this section I involves 19 of them (73% of total). The section II (which involve holdcos outperforming the opcos in the past year) involves 7 pair trade strategies (27% of total).</p>
<p>In other words, the opcos in general have vastly outperformed the holdcos in the past year, especially due to the ban on the short selling of stocks in Korea. Because the opcos tend to be the bigger company than the holdcos in terms of market cap, many fund managers (both active and passive) have tended to just invest in the opcos and pay less attention to the holdcos.  </p>
</div><p>Also, we described the holdcos as either regular or quasi. SK Telecom and Samsung C&amp;T would be examples of "quasi" holdcos whereas Orion Holdings and Hanjin Kal would be examples of regular holdcos. </p>

In this insight, we highlight the closing of the pricing gaps between the major Korean holdcos and opcos, especially with the upcoming end of the ban on the short selling of shares in Korea in May. In this insight, we highlight 26 pair trades that involve Korean holdcos and opcos.Just a reminder that the ban on short selling of KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 included stocks will remain in place until May 2nd and investors will be able to resume their shorting on these 350 stocks starting on May 3rd. Once this ban on short selling of stocks ends, there could be more investors that may look to add to the holdco shares and short the opco shares (especially among the pairs where the holdco shares have underperformed the opco shares in the past year). However, some of these moves have already started to take place in the past few weeks, which could reduce the overall profits on the pair trades. Traditionally, the pair trades involving Korean holdcos and opcos have been a trading strategy that many hedge funds have employed for many years. However, the ban on short selling of stocks in Korea have prevented many of these funds from employing these pair trade strategies. Once the ban ends, you will likely see these funds becoming more active in these trading methods once again. 
In the section below, we separated the pair trades into two different sections. The first table involves major opcos outperforming holdcos (regular and quasi) in the past year. Of the 26 pair trade strategies mentioned in this insight, this section I involves 19 of them (73% of total). The section II (which involve holdcos outperforming the opcos in the past year) involves 7 pair trade strategies (27% of total).
In other words, the opcos in general have vastly outperformed the holdcos in the past year, especially due to the ban on the short selling of stocks in Korea. Because the opcos tend to be the bigger company than the holdcos in terms of market cap, many fund managers (both active and passive) have tended to just invest in the opcos and pay less attention to the holdcos.  
Also, we described the holdcos as either regular or quasi. SK Telecom and Samsung C&amp;T would be examples of "quasi" holdcos whereas Orion Holdings and Hanjin Kal would be examples of regular holdcos. 

Closing the Gap: Korean Holdcos Vs. Opcos

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<div>While the details are scarce, local press is reporting that SKT and AMZN has been in talks for more than a year and would allow really an export/import biz on both of their channels (ie Korean products to be bought by US consumers and US products to be bought thru 11th St (SK's ecommerce portal) for Koreans. </div><div></div><div>This can't be good for the ecommerce players in Korea.  In the US, if you hear that AMZN is coming in whatever business, the whole sector falls.   Is Naver next? </div>

While the details are scarce, local press is reporting that SKT and AMZN has been in talks for more than a year and would allow really an export/import biz on both of their channels (ie Korean products to be bought by US consumers and US products to be bought thru 11th St (SK's ecommerce portal) for Koreans. This can't be good for the ecommerce players in Korea.  In the US, if you hear that AMZN is coming in whatever business, the whole sector falls.   Is Naver next? 

AMZN into Korea - "We Are Not Here to Take Part, We're Here to Take Over!"

<div class="content-highlight"><p>In this insight, we provide a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) valuation analysis of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gs-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18524:1" rel="noopener">Gs Holdings (078930 KS)</a>. <strong>Our SoTP valuation analysis suggests a target price of 50,783 won per share for GS Holdings, representing a 34% upside from the current levels. We are including GS Holdings in our model portfolio. </strong></p></div><p>The SoTP valuation is broken down into 5 major components:</p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>A) Value of Public Companies (2.1 trillion won)</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>B) Value of Private Companies (3.2 trillion won) </strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>C) Value of GS Holdings' Core Business (1.5 trillion won) </strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>D) Net Debt (571 billion won)</strong></p><p style="padding-left: 25px;"><strong>E) Holdco Discount (25%)</strong></p><div class="content-highlight">
<p>The three key catalysts of GS Holdings are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>The merger between GS Retail and GS Home Shopping</li>
<li>Insiders have been actively buying shares of GS Holdings in 2020</li>
<li>Turnaround of the GS Energy business in 2021</li>
</ul>
</div>

In this insight, we provide a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) valuation analysis of Gs Holdings (078930 KS). Our SoTP valuation analysis suggests a target price of 50,783 won per share for GS Holdings, representing a 34% upside from the current levels. We are including GS Holdings in our model portfolio. The SoTP valuation is broken down into 5 major components:A) Value of Public Companies (2.1 trillion won)B) Value of Private Companies (3.2 trillion won) C) Value of GS Holdings' Core Business (1.5 trillion won) D) Net Debt (571 billion won)E) Holdco Discount (25%)
The three key catalysts of GS Holdings are as follows:

The merger between GS Retail and GS Home Shopping
Insiders have been actively buying shares of GS Holdings in 2020
Turnaround of the GS Energy business in 2021



GS Holdings SoTP Valuation Analysis & Three Key Catalysts

South Korea

GS Retail Co., Ltd. operates a chain of retail stores. The Company provides beauty and skincare products, candles, gifts, perfumes, ornaments, bathroom accessories, and other products. GS Retail serves its customers in the Republic of South Korea.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GS Retail (007070 KS)

Korea Pair Trades: High Risk/Reward Names with Short Sell Screen

With the resumption of short selling in Korea, we highlight correlated pairs from the same GICS sub-industry that are near reversion points and...

Brian Freitas

GS Retail Merger Swap Arb Trade Begins This Monday

This post examines the current situation of the GS Retail & GS Home Shopping merger swap event and where the arb trade yield stands given the...

Sanghyun Park

Closing the Gap: Korean Holdcos Vs. Opcos

In this insight, we highlight the closing of the pricing gaps between the major Korean holdcos and opcos, especially with the upcoming end of the...

Douglas Kim

AMZN into Korea - "We Are Not Here to Take Part, We're Here to Take Over!"

I guess the Koreans aren't scared of Amazon's entry into the ecommerce space! I'm a seller of Naver here on the news that Amazon will come into...

Ken S. Kim

GS Holdings SoTP Valuation Analysis & Three Key Catalysts

Our SoTP valuation analysis suggests a target price of 50,783 won per share for GS Holdings, representing a 34% upside from the current levels.

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)