Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this note we assess the JSE Top 40 index effect of an Anglo American restructuring or takeover by BHP, assuming the Amplats and Kumba stakes are spun out.</li>
<li>We also explore the details of BHP's initial offer and what the market could be pricing with respect to a potential revision of BHP's stock offer (minimum).</li>
<li>If Kumba is unbundled from Anglo American, we expect the stock to enter the JSE Top 40. Potential deletes are included in the note.</li>
</ul>


In this note we assess the JSE Top 40 index effect of an Anglo American restructuring or takeover by BHP, assuming the Amplats and Kumba stakes are spun out.
We also explore the details of BHP's initial offer and what the market could be pricing with respect to a potential revision of BHP's stock offer (minimum).
If Kumba is unbundled from Anglo American, we expect the stock to enter the JSE Top 40. Potential deletes are included in the note.


Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

<ul><li>Last night the price snapshot was taken for the March 2024 rebalance.</li><li>We do not expect there to be any changes to the Top 40, Top 40 SWIX, FINI, FINDI or INDI.</li><li>EXX is expected to enter the RESI with NPH falling out. </li></ul>

Last night the price snapshot was taken for the March 2024 rebalance.We do not expect there to be any changes to the Top 40, Top 40 SWIX, FINI, FINDI or INDI.EXX is expected to enter the RESI with NPH falling out. 

JSE Mar '24 Rebalance: No T40 or T40 SWIX Changes Expected

<ul><li>Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February.</li><li>The three largest additions to the World Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Samsara A (USA), Corebridge Financial (USA) and Applovin Corp A (USA)</li><li>The three largest additions to the Emerging Markets Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Midea Group Co A (HK-C) (China), Punjab National Bank (India) and Union Bank Of India (India)</li></ul>

Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February.The three largest additions to the World Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Samsara A (USA), Corebridge Financial (USA) and Applovin Corp A (USA)The three largest additions to the Emerging Markets Index measured by full company market capitalization will be Midea Group Co A (HK-C) (China), Punjab National Bank (India) and Union Bank Of India (India)

FEB 2024 REBALANCE Index Changes Announced, SA Constituents to Remain the Same

<ul><li>Naspers and Prosus reported H1 FY24 results last week Wednesday before the open.</li><li>No major surprises, all three discounts closed slightly lower. We see room for further narrowing as the consolidated ecommerce businesses approach profitability ahead of the initial target.</li><li>Prosus is still trading below the value of its Tencent stake.</li></ul>

Naspers and Prosus reported H1 FY24 results last week Wednesday before the open.No major surprises, all three discounts closed slightly lower. We see room for further narrowing as the consolidated ecommerce businesses approach profitability ahead of the initial target.Prosus is still trading below the value of its Tencent stake.

NPN X PRX Discount Update + Key Takeaways H1 FY24 Results

South Africa

Growthpoint Properties Limited is a real estate trust in South Africa. The Company owns a portfolio of commercial, retail and industrial (mostly warehouses) properties in South Africa and Australia. 1370329D SJ Equity has pre-2012 Financial Analysis fundamental data.

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Growthpoint Properties (GRT SJ)

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

We explore the recent takeover bid by BHP and potential JSE index effects of a takeover or restructuring that would see Amplats and Kumba unbundled.

DMA

JSE Mar '24 Rebalance: No T40 or T40 SWIX Changes Expected

Last night the price snapshot was taken for the March 2024 rebalance. We do not expect there to be any changes to the Top 40, Top 40 SWIX, FINI,...

DMA

FEB 2024 REBALANCE Index Changes Announced, SA Constituents to Remain the Same

Indices will be rebalanced at the end of the month on Thursday the 29th of February. The three largest additions to the World Index measured by...

DMA

NPN X PRX Discount Update + Key Takeaways H1 FY24 Results

Naspers and Prosus reported H1 FY24 results last week Wednesday before the open. No major surprises, all three discounts closed slightly lower.

DMA

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