Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beenos-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18023:1" rel="noopener">Beenos Inc (3328 JP)</a> is a relatively small cross-border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥64.7bn last year.</li>
<li>The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in start-ups mainly in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.</li>
<li>Down below, we analyse the impact on Beenos’ valuation following GOTO’s impending IPO of which Beenos owns 0.5%.</li>
</ul>



Beenos Inc (3328 JP) is a relatively small cross-border e-commerce and internet company from Japan with a consolidated GMV of ¥64.7bn last year.
The company also runs an incubator platform to create new businesses and invest in start-ups mainly in emerging regions such as India and South-East Asia.
Down below, we analyse the impact on Beenos’ valuation following GOTO’s impending IPO of which Beenos owns 0.5%.


GoTo May Not Be So Expensive, If You Own It Through Beenos

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a> reported 4Q2021 results yesterday (before market). IFRS revenue decreased 44.29% YoY to $122m (vs consensus $219m) compared to $219m in the same quarter a year ago.</li>
<li>Adjusted EBITDA (loss) for the quarter was -$305m (vs consensus -$206m) compared to -$102m a year ago as the company heavily spent on incentives to attract and retain drivers.</li>
<li>Grab’s shares have lost almost 40.0% during intra-day trading as its growth story did not bode well with the investors.</li>
</ul>



Grab (GRAB US) reported 4Q2021 results yesterday (before market). IFRS revenue decreased 44.29% YoY to $122m (vs consensus $219m) compared to $219m in the same quarter a year ago.
Adjusted EBITDA (loss) for the quarter was -$305m (vs consensus -$206m) compared to -$102m a year ago as the company heavily spent on incentives to attract and retain drivers.
Grab’s shares have lost almost 40.0% during intra-day trading as its growth story did not bode well with the investors.


Grab 4Q2021: Heavy Spending on Customer and Driver Incentives Hurts Earnings

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>The confirmation that Jerry Ng, one of the major shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago</a> will take a controlling stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia</a> should create a win-win combination.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia</a> brings best-in-class exposure to multi finance, whilst integration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago</a> and GoTo group should help it to accelerate the company's digitalisation and boost growth.</li>
<li>The company trades on 2.7x FY21E PBV with a forecast ROE of 14.7% for FY2021E and 18.5% in FY2023E but historically it has generated ROEs of 25% plus.</li>
</ul>


The confirmation that Jerry Ng, one of the major shareholders of Bank Jago will take a controlling stake in BFI Finance Indonesia should create a win-win combination.

BFI Finance Indonesia brings best-in-class exposure to multi finance, whilst integration with Bank Jago and GoTo group should help it to accelerate the company's digitalisation and boost growth.
The company trades on 2.7x FY21E PBV with a forecast ROE of 14.7% for FY2021E and 18.5% in FY2023E but historically it has generated ROEs of 25% plus.


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Taking the Digital High Road

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> released a strong set of 1H2021 results with overall revenues up by +23% YoY to IDR4,863,1bn, driven by advertising revenue growth of +27% YoY. Free-to-Air Television advertising revenues grew by +16% YoY to IDR4,595.1bn, whilst digital advertising revenues grew by +117% YoY to IDR889.2bn.</p>
</section>
<p>There was also a strong performance from e-commerce players such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lazada-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26148:1" rel="noopener">Lazada Group</a>, Shopee (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia</a>, and BliBli.com, which block-booked primetime slots for entertainment variety shows and promotional events. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener"></a>Content is King</p>
<section class="figure">
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> continues to see strong performance from its prime-time blocking programs, which are predominantly for e-commerce companies but also players such as Telkomsel. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> continues to see explosive growth from its digital adverting efforts, which saw revenues rise +117% in 1H2021.</p>
<p>Management is also very excited about the prospects for the company's RCTI+ super app, which had 39.8m MAUs at the end of 1H2021 versus 9.5m a year ago, and already hit 50m MAUs in August, with expectations of 60-70m by year-end.</p>
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<p>Management is optimistic that 2H2021 can see even stronger growth and the lack of European Cup costs should see better margins at the same time. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/media-nusantara-citra-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6881:1" rel="noopener">Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ)</a> looks very attractive from a valuation perspective trading on 5.3x FY21E PER and 4.4x FY22E PER versus a 5-year average of 9.3x forward PER.</p>
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<p></p>
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Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) released a strong set of 1H2021 results with overall revenues up by +23% YoY to IDR4,863,1bn, driven by advertising revenue growth of +27% YoY. Free-to-Air Television advertising revenues grew by +16% YoY to IDR4,595.1bn, whilst digital advertising revenues grew by +117% YoY to IDR889.2bn.

There was also a strong performance from e-commerce players such as Lazada Group, Shopee (Sea Ltd (SE US), Gojek &amp; Tokopedia, and BliBli.com, which block-booked primetime slots for entertainment variety shows and promotional events. Content is King

Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) continues to see strong performance from its prime-time blocking programs, which are predominantly for e-commerce companies but also players such as Telkomsel. 
Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) continues to see explosive growth from its digital adverting efforts, which saw revenues rise +117% in 1H2021.
Management is also very excited about the prospects for the company's RCTI+ super app, which had 39.8m MAUs at the end of 1H2021 versus 9.5m a year ago, and already hit 50m MAUs in August, with expectations of 60-70m by year-end.




Management is optimistic that 2H2021 can see even stronger growth and the lack of European Cup costs should see better margins at the same time. Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) looks very attractive from a valuation perspective trading on 5.3x FY21E PER and 4.4x FY22E PER versus a 5-year average of 9.3x forward PER.










Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - Increasingly Digital with Gaming to Boot

<div class="content-highlight">
<p>A rare post-results call with leading Indonesian consumer staples company <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayora-indah-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15131:1" rel="noopener">Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ)</a></strong> management revealed a company well-positioned to take advantage of the recovery in 2H2021, with a good number of new products launches likely to help drive growth both domestically and overseas.</p>
</div>
<p>Rising commodity prices are a potential threat to margins but management has outlined a number of strategies to cope with this including price increases.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayora-indah-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15131:1" rel="noopener">Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ)</a> saw strong growth in sales and operating profits reflecting the strength of the recovery domestically and especially in the export of its products. </p>
<p>The company continues to gain market share in a number of categories and especially in biscuits, wafers, and coffee. It continues to broaden the range of products available in export markets such as the Philippines and Thailand.</p>
<section class="figure"></section>
<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayora-indah-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15131:1" rel="noopener">Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ)</a>'s valuations look attractive versus history with the company trading on 19.6x FY21E PER and 17.2x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 27x.</section>


A rare post-results call with leading Indonesian consumer staples company Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) management revealed a company well-positioned to take advantage of the recovery in 2H2021, with a good number of new products launches likely to help drive growth both domestically and overseas.

Rising commodity prices are a potential threat to margins but management has outlined a number of strategies to cope with this including price increases.
Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) saw strong growth in sales and operating profits reflecting the strength of the recovery domestically and especially in the export of its products. 
The company continues to gain market share in a number of categories and especially in biscuits, wafers, and coffee. It continues to broaden the range of products available in export markets such as the Philippines and Thailand.

Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ)'s valuations look attractive versus history with the company trading on 19.6x FY21E PER and 17.2x FY22E PER versus its 5-year average forward PER of 27x.

Indonesia

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk operates department stores and specialty stores selling a broad range of goods including clothing, toys, food, and other merchandise.

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk provides e-discretionary services. The Company offers range of electronics, food, shoes, apparel, watches, bags, cosmetics products, and other accessories. Bukalapak.com serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Matahari Department Store Tbk engages in the retail business for several types of products such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, household appliances, and management consulting services.

PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk operates department stores in Indonesia which sell items such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, and daily needs. Its department stores are known as Ramayana, Robinson, and Cahaya.

PT MAP Aktif Adiperkasa Tbk retails sporting goods. The Company operates an online portal that offers a wide range boots, shoes, sandals, shorts, caps, hoodies, and accessories. Map Aktif Adiperkasa serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Multipolar Tbk imports, trades, distributes, retails, and services computers and related products. The Company provides computer equipment rental, informatics engineering, and management services. Multipolar, through its subsidiaries, also provides share administration services.

PT ACE Hardware Indonesia Tbk retails tools, home improvement products, lawn and garden supplies, plumbing, furniture, sporting goods, and pet supplies.

PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk operates in the retail telecommunication business.  The Company operates retail stores in cities throughout Indonesia that offer a wide range of branded cellular phones.

PT Tunas Ridean Tbk and its subsidiaries operate automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after-sales services.  Through its subsidiary, PT Tunas Financindo Corporation, the Company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk assembles, and distributes automobiles, buses, trucks, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company provides automotive maintenance, financing, and rental services.  Indomobil also trades used cars.

Takashimaya Company, Limited., founded in Kyoto in 1831, operates department stores.  The Company's main stores are located in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Takashimaya also operates department stores in Paris, France, Singapore, China, Australia, and New York, USA.  The Company retails clothing, foods, art objects, sundry goods, and household utensils.  The Company also operates restaurants.

Harvey Norman Holdings Limited is a holding company for companies and trusts in a third party franchise agreement. The franchises operate stores under the name "Harvey Norman Discounts," selling home wares and electrical goods. The Company also provides advisory and advertising to the franchises. In addition, the Company provides consumer finance and has property investments.

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co., Ltd operates supermarkets and department stores in Guangzhou, China.  The Company sells a variety of consumer products, including apparel, food and beverages, electronics, jewelry, cosmetics, and electric appliances.  Guangzhou Friendship also leases real estate properties.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co, Ltd. (000987 CH)

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. operates department stores which sell clothing, accessories, home appliances, and food stuffs.  The Company also provides consumer loan services.  Marui Group operates in the Tokyo area.

Macy's, Inc. operates department stores in the United States.  The Company also operates direct mail catalog and electronic commerce subsidiaries. Macy's retail stores sell a wide range of merchandise, including men's, women's and children's apparel and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods.

Nordstrom, Inc. is a fashion retailer of apparel, shoes, and accessories for men, women, and children.  The Company operates through multiple retail channels, discount stores, boutiques, catalogs, and on the Internet. Nordstrom, Inc. also offers, through a subsidiary, private label card credit and debit cards.

Woolworths Holdings Limited is a South African-based retail group. The Group, operates a chain of retail stores offering a selected range of clothing, food, homeware, beauty and financial services under its own brand name. The Company also owns a clothing and homeware retailer and has stores in selected African countries and the Middle East.

Hainan Island Construction Co Ltd.  is a property development company. The Company also operates regional malls and hotels.

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

GoTo May Not Be So Expensive, If You Own It Through Beenos

Beenos owns 3.545bn shares of GoTo with a lock-up period of 8 months and at the IPO price, the company’s ownership share would be valued at around...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Grab 4Q2021: Heavy Spending on Customer and Driver Incentives Hurts Earnings

Grab's first post-IPO results was disappointing as both revenues and margins dropped due to heavy spending on customer/driver incentives. Share...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) - Taking the Digital High Road

The confirmation that Jerry Ng, one of the major shareholders of Bank Jago will take a controlling stake in BFI Finance Indonesia should create a...

Angus Mackintosh

Media Nusantara Citra (MNCN IJ) - Increasingly Digital with Gaming to Boot

MNCN continues to dominate audience share in FTA TV in Indonesia, which is yielding positive advertising returns but it is also growing its digital...

Angus Mackintosh

Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) - Lovely Biscuits

Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) is one of the best quality consumer companies in Indonesia leading in categories such as biscuits, candies, cereal, and...

Angus Mackintosh

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