Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Goldwin has big plans for both The North Face in the Japanese and Korean markets and for its own brand globally.</li>
<li>But there are worries about saturation for the former in Japan, slowing brand development, and lack of expertise in overseas markets to build its own brand.</li>
<li>Goldwin has had an amazing run but can it build a global brand? If it can, it will feed into high levels of demand for Japan-tech sports brands.</li>
</ul>


Goldwin has big plans for both The North Face in the Japanese and Korean markets and for its own brand globally.
But there are worries about saturation for the former in Japan, slowing brand development, and lack of expertise in overseas markets to build its own brand.
Goldwin has had an amazing run but can it build a global brand? If it can, it will feed into high levels of demand for Japan-tech sports brands.


Goldwin: 50% Growth in 5 Years? Possible but Some Challenges

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Growth Inflection: Goldwin's mid-term plan targets ¥190 billion in sales, driven by The North Face's expansion and a transformation of the Goldwin brand globally.</li>
<li>Profitability: Shifting from wholesale to direct-to-consumer, Goldwin has achieved significant margin growth, expanding operating margins to 19%, with further gains expected.</li>
<li>Strong Capital Position: Goldwin's robust balance sheet and anticipated ¥100 billion free cash flow support shareholder returns, alongside a proven management track record of delivering on growth objectives.</li>
</ul>


Growth Inflection: Goldwin's mid-term plan targets ¥190 billion in sales, driven by The North Face's expansion and a transformation of the Goldwin brand globally.
Profitability: Shifting from wholesale to direct-to-consumer, Goldwin has achieved significant margin growth, expanding operating margins to 19%, with further gains expected.
Strong Capital Position: Goldwin's robust balance sheet and anticipated ¥100 billion free cash flow support shareholder returns, alongside a proven management track record of delivering on growth objectives.


<ul>
<li>As expected, Goldwin posted another record year of sales and profits in FY2023.</li>
<li>The sports firm is now narrowing its focus on a smaller number of high profile brands to maximise sales and investment spending.</li>
<li>The big promise is its own brand, Goldwin, which is proving as popular overseas as in Japan and looks set to become a global premium sports brand longer-term.</li>
</ul>


As expected, Goldwin posted another record year of sales and profits in FY2023.
The sports firm is now narrowing its focus on a smaller number of high profile brands to maximise sales and investment spending.
The big promise is its own brand, Goldwin, which is proving as popular overseas as in Japan and looks set to become a global premium sports brand longer-term.


Goldwin Focusing on Core Brands, Aims for Global Success

<ul>
<li>Goldwin has had a remarkable run of record sales and profits, a beneficiary of the continuing growth in the outdoor market as well as its own retail strategy. </li>
<li>Although much of its success has come from The North Face, Goldwin is determined to become a more diversified – and global – sports business.</li>
<li>When we first recommended the stock it was around ¥5,000 and rose to a peak of ¥12,600 but is now about ¥9,000. Will it grow again? We think so.</li>
</ul>


Goldwin has had a remarkable run of record sales and profits, a beneficiary of the continuing growth in the outdoor market as well as its own retail strategy. 
Although much of its success has come from The North Face, Goldwin is determined to become a more diversified – and global – sports business.
When we first recommended the stock it was around ¥5,000 and rose to a peak of ¥12,600 but is now about ¥9,000. Will it grow again? We think so.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a> has announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Itochu Corp (8001 JP)</a>’s tender offer precondition has been satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. </li>
<li>The offer is arguably light due to the peer re-rating and historical trading ranges. It is also below the midpoint of the special committee’s IFA DCF valuation range. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium multiple compared to peers. </li>
</ul>



Descente Ltd (8114 JP) has announced that Itochu Corp (8001 JP)’s tender offer precondition has been satisfied. The offer terms are unchanged at JPY4,350 per share. 
The offer is arguably light due to the peer re-rating and historical trading ranges. It is also below the midpoint of the special committee’s IFA DCF valuation range. 
Nevertheless, the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium multiple compared to peers. 


Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Tender Offer Launches

Japan

GOLDWIN INC. manufactures and markets sportswear for skiing, snowboarding, soccer, tennis, swimming, and other outdoor activities.

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Goldwin Inc (8111 JP)

Goldwin: 50% Growth in 5 Years? Possible but Some Challenges

Goldwin aims to further expand The North Face while building a global brand of its own. There is very strong potential but it faces challenges due...

Michael Causton

Goldwin (8111) | Scaling New Peaks

Goldwin aims for ¥190 billion in sales through The North Face expansion and global brand transformation, with a shift to direct-to-consumer...

Mark Chadwick

Goldwin Focusing on Core Brands, Aims for Global Success

Goldwin achieves record sales and profits, shifts focus to high profile brands like its own, poised to become a global premium sports brand.

Michael Causton

Goldwin: Sustainable Records

Goldwin's remarkable sales and profits have continued, despite relying heavily on The North Face. The company now aims to diversify and expand...

Michael Causton

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Tender Offer Launches

While light the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Goldwin: 50% Growth in 5 Years? Possible but Some Challenges

​Goldwin aims to further expand The North Face while building a global brand of its own. There is very strong potential but it faces challenges due...

Michael Causton

Goldwin (8111) | Scaling New Peaks

​Goldwin aims for ¥190 billion in sales through The North Face expansion and global brand transformation, with a shift to direct-to-consumer...

Mark Chadwick

Goldwin Focusing on Core Brands, Aims for Global Success

​Goldwin achieves record sales and profits, shifts focus to high profile brands like its own, poised to become a global premium sports brand.

Michael Causton

Goldwin: Sustainable Records

​Goldwin's remarkable sales and profits have continued, despite relying heavily on The North Face. The company now aims to diversify and expand...

Michael Causton

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Tender Offer Launches

While light the offer will likely succeed. There is no vocal opposition, the volume traded through terms is low, and the offer implies a premium...

Arun George

Goldwin aims to further expand The North Face while building a global brand of its own. There is very strong potential but it faces challenges due...

Goldwin aims for ¥190 billion in sales through The North Face expansion and global brand transformation, with a shift to direct-to-consumer...

Goldwin achieves record sales and profits, shifts focus to high profile brands like its own, poised to become a global premium sports brand.

Goldwin's remarkable sales and profits have continued, despite relying heavily on The North Face. The company now aims to diversify and expand...