Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>US crude oil inventory declined by 12.2 million barrels as of the week ending on 28/Jun, the biggest drawdown since July 2023.</li>
<li>Henry Hub prices continued to decline from last week due to increased production and cooler weather forecasts.</li>
<li>Saudi Aramco awarded over USD 25 billion in contracts for gas expansion. Goldman Sachs lowered its target price on Saudi Aramco but maintained its “Neutral” rating.</li>
</ul>


US crude oil inventory declined by 12.2 million barrels as of the week ending on 28/Jun, the biggest drawdown since July 2023.
Henry Hub prices continued to decline from last week due to increased production and cooler weather forecasts.
Saudi Aramco awarded over USD 25 billion in contracts for gas expansion. Goldman Sachs lowered its target price on Saudi Aramco but maintained its “Neutral” rating.


[ETP 27/2024] Oil Prices Surge While Natural Gas Slides; Energy Majors' Gains Slowdown

Pranay Yadav

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Outlook for interest rates in 2024 remains uncertain with market expectations diverging from Fed’s dot plot. Overall, rate cuts are expected in 2024.</li>
<li>Lower rate outlook for 2024 will drive higher deal-making which is likely to benefit Goldman. A slowdown in the US economy could hamper Goldman’s recovery.</li>
<li>Market metrics point to a positive sentiment around Goldman Sachs stock amongst analysts with summary analyst recommendation pointing to a Buy rating and average upside of 11%.</li>
</ul>


Outlook for interest rates in 2024 remains uncertain with market expectations diverging from Fed’s dot plot. Overall, rate cuts are expected in 2024.
Lower rate outlook for 2024 will drive higher deal-making which is likely to benefit Goldman. A slowdown in the US economy could hamper Goldman’s recovery.
Market metrics point to a positive sentiment around Goldman Sachs stock amongst analysts with summary analyst recommendation pointing to a Buy rating and average upside of 11%.


Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

<ul>
<li>Goldman reported FY and Q4 2023 earnings and revenue that topped analysts estimates. Goldman stands to benefit from higher deal-making and lower operating expenses in 2024.</li>
<li>FY2023 earnings and revenue were lower than FY2022 as Goldman faced large losses on its real estate portfolio and retreat from its consumer banking push.</li>
<li>Q4 earnings beat expectations by a huge margin but investment banking fees continued to lag; heading into a looser monetary environment in 2024, Goldman stands to outperform.</li>
</ul>


Goldman reported FY and Q4 2023 earnings and revenue that topped analysts estimates. Goldman stands to benefit from higher deal-making and lower operating expenses in 2024.
FY2023 earnings and revenue were lower than FY2022 as Goldman faced large losses on its real estate portfolio and retreat from its consumer banking push.
Q4 earnings beat expectations by a huge margin but investment banking fees continued to lag; heading into a looser monetary environment in 2024, Goldman stands to outperform.


Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 1)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.</li>
<li>It is a branchless digital bank that only started operations in 2017. As of Sep 21, it had a loan book of US$21bn, deposit base of US$24bn and 17.4m customers.</li>
<li>Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea.</li>
</ul>


Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.
It is a branchless digital bank that only started operations in 2017. As of Sep 21, it had a loan book of US$21bn, deposit base of US$24bn and 17.4m customers.
Even though Kakao started operations only in July 2017, by 2020 it had already garnered more than 1% market share of overall loans and deposits in South Korea.


2022 High Conviction - Kakao Bank - A Long Way to Go

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>Quarterly figures are poor, with net interest income growth negative, again</li>
<li>Fees appear to be topping out, with operating costs at very high levels</li>
<li>7 August letter from Senator Warren: congressional scrutiny on SVB</li>
</ul>


Quarterly figures are poor, with net interest income growth negative, again
Fees appear to be topping out, with operating costs at very high levels
7 August letter from Senator Warren: congressional scrutiny on SVB


GS - 2 Quarters Of Falling Net Int Inc, Fees Topping Out, Very High Costs, Credit Metrics Worsening

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

[ETP 27/2024] Oil Prices Surge While Natural Gas Slides; Energy Majors' Gains Slowdown

US crude oil inventory sees the biggest drawdown since July 2023. TotalEnergies exits South Africa to focus on Namibia. Jefferies cuts Chevron's...

Mint Finance

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

The uncertain outlook for interest rates in 2024 provides diverging outlook for Goldman stock's performance. In this part 2 paper, Mint Finance...

Mint Finance

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 1)

Goldman Sachs surpasses analysts' estimates with strong FY and Q4 2023 earnings, benefiting from increased deal-making and reduced operating...

Mint Finance

2022 High Conviction - Kakao Bank - A Long Way to Go

Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.

Sumeet Singh

GS - 2 Quarters Of Falling Net Int Inc, Fees Topping Out, Very High Costs, Credit Metrics Worsening

We now see GS struggling further with recent results but also see average growth rate of net interest income at large US banks decelerating sharply...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 27/2024] Oil Prices Surge While Natural Gas Slides; Energy Majors' Gains Slowdown

US crude oil inventory sees the biggest drawdown since July 2023. TotalEnergies exits South Africa to focus on Namibia. Jefferies cuts Chevron's...

Mint Finance

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

The uncertain outlook for interest rates in 2024 provides diverging outlook for Goldman stock's performance. In this part 2 paper, Mint Finance...

Mint Finance

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 1)

​Goldman Sachs surpasses analysts' estimates with strong FY and Q4 2023 earnings, benefiting from increased deal-making and reduced operating...

Mint Finance

2022 High Conviction - Kakao Bank - A Long Way to Go

Kakao Bank (KB) is South Korea’s largest digital bank. It's a subsidiary of Kakao, which holds a 27.3% stake post listing.

Sumeet Singh

GS - 2 Quarters Of Falling Net Int Inc, Fees Topping Out, Very High Costs, Credit Metrics Worsening

We now see GS struggling further with recent results but also see average growth rate of net interest income at large US banks decelerating sharply...

Daniel Tabbush

Goldman Sachs surpasses analysts' estimates with strong FY and Q4 2023 earnings, benefiting from increased deal-making and reduced operating...