Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago</li>
<li>Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure</li>
</ul>


Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data
Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago
Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure


US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul>
<li>US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the median credit risk faced by all US- banks.</li>
<li>The downward trend in the Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) for G-SIBs was largely driven by improvements in their equity performance, which has improved their financial position comparative to its peers.</li>
<li>As can be seen from Chart 1, although the G-SIB CCCI is trending lower since late September-2023, their aggregate credit profile is still close to the upper quartile credit risk of the US banking industry.</li>
</ul>


US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the median credit risk faced by all US- banks.
The downward trend in the Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) for G-SIBs was largely driven by improvements in their equity performance, which has improved their financial position comparative to its peers.
As can be seen from Chart 1, although the G-SIB CCCI is trending lower since late September-2023, their aggregate credit profile is still close to the upper quartile credit risk of the US banking industry.


US G-SIBs Recover in Q4 2023, Facing Cloudy Outlook for 2024

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Regional and small US banks face a greater risk to rising delinquencies on CRE loans given their higher exposure to CRE debt.</li>
<li>CRE loan delinquency rates and net charge-offs have accelerated since Q32022, mostly driven by the office space portfolio.</li>
<li>Within the CRE industry, property types such as hotels, offices and retail assets have the highest average rate caps, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Regional and small US banks face a greater risk to rising delinquencies on CRE loans given their higher exposure to CRE debt.
CRE loan delinquency rates and net charge-offs have accelerated since Q32022, mostly driven by the office space portfolio.
Within the CRE industry, property types such as hotels, offices and retail assets have the highest average rate caps, respectively.


Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

<ul>
<li>US banks show flat lining loan growth, and continued very high growth in Jumbo time deposits, borrowings. Total deposits though, remain in contraction. </li>
<li>With the liability shift away from checking accounts, loan growth at near zero YoY will not help net interest income growth. Most recent two weeks' data, loans declined USD58bn.</li>
<li>Our sample of 36 US banks shows net interest income has just turned negative in 4Q23, and its pace of decline should worsen considerably, in coming quarters. </li>
</ul>


US banks show flat lining loan growth, and continued very high growth in Jumbo time deposits, borrowings. Total deposits though, remain in contraction. 
With the liability shift away from checking accounts, loan growth at near zero YoY will not help net interest income growth. Most recent two weeks' data, loans declined USD58bn.
Our sample of 36 US banks shows net interest income has just turned negative in 4Q23, and its pace of decline should worsen considerably, in coming quarters. 


US Banks - Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for Japanese IPOs and placements in 2023. </li>
<li>The following dataset includes all Japanese IPOs and placements above US$100m, <strong>which amounted to a total of 32 deals. </strong>
</li>
<li>The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO and placement tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information.</li>
</ul>


In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for Japanese IPOs and placements in 2023. 
The following dataset includes all Japanese IPOs and placements above US$100m, which amounted to a total of 32 deals. 

The deals you see in this note are based on our historical IPO and placement tracker. Feel free to drop us a message for additional information.


Aequitas Japan IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

High frequency data shows US banks with very weak C&I loans and total loans. Large time deposit growth remains high, only adding to core income...

Daniel Tabbush

US G-SIBs Recover in Q4 2023, Facing Cloudy Outlook for 2024

US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the...

Criat

Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

Regional banks' asset quality is under greater threat given their high exposure to CRE loans. Hotels, offices, and retail assets have the highest...

Mint Finance

US Banks - Flat Line Loans, High Growth Higher Cost Funding, Net Interest Income Growth Is Negative

Weekly balance sheet data for large US banks shows liabilities shift toward higher cost funding continues, with loan growth remaining week, losing...

Daniel Tabbush

Aequitas Japan IPOs + Placements Broker Performance 2023

In this note, we will take a look at broker performance for Japanese IPOs and placements in 2023, which includes all Japanese IPOs and placements...

Ethan Aw

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)