Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it.  There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios. ... </p><p>I didn’t think he’d manage it. His indiscretions seemed too large, his gaffes too many. But what we saw, with some 1+m Trump win of the popular vote, was the forgotten rural Americans voting anti-Clinton in greater numbers than expected, particularly in Blue Belt (Rust Belt) areas of the US Center. All while doing what Trump said he would do in…</p>

It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it.  There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios. ... I didn’t think he’d manage it. His indiscretions seemed too large, his gaffes too many. But what we saw, with some 1+m Trump win of the popular vote, was the forgotten rural Americans voting anti-Clinton in greater numbers than expected, particularly in Blue Belt (Rust Belt) areas of the US Center. All while doing what Trump said he would do in…

Against [Official] Odds It's a Trump USA Now

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<p>As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. </p><p>I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.</p>

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears
The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.

The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of…


Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

<p>Yesterday's high court ruling stating that parliament must have a say before any triggering of Article 50 to start the process for Britain to leave the EU puts us at point 7 in my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-path-to-no-brexit" target="_blank">path to no Brexit</a>.</p><p>The reaction from the pro-Brexit press and prominent individuals has been sharp, from declaring the judges in question as enemies of the nation (The Daily Mail) to saying this is the darkest day for the UK since World War II and for readers to fight, fight, fight (The Daily Express).</p><p>Coming five months…</p>

Yesterday's high court ruling stating that parliament must have a say before any triggering of Article 50 to start the process for Britain to leave the EU puts us at point 7 in my path to no Brexit.The reaction from the pro-Brexit press and prominent individuals has been sharp, from declaring the judges in question as enemies of the nation (The Daily Mail) to saying this is the darkest day for the UK since World War II and for readers to fight, fight, fight (The Daily Express).Coming five months…

Amareos

Ryan Shea

<p>As any parent will confirm, teenagers know one thing. Unfortunately, it is “every”-thing. The rest of the population, by contrast, recognizes and appreciates the complexity of the world in which we inhabit, all the uncertainty that this necessarily generates, and the associated risks.</p><p>Borrowing the lexicon of Donald Rumsfeld, there are two types of risk that we regularly encounter: unknown-unknowns and known-unknowns. As investors we can’t do much about the former, but we can do something about the latter. Indeed, this is the bread and butter of risk managers around the world.</p><p>Crowd-sourced sentiment indicators provide a new additional tool for investors to monitor and assess a wide variety of financial market risks.  In this note, we demonstrate their applicability before going on to assess the short-run and long-run risks for US equities; particularly pertinent given two substantial known-unknowns looming on the near-horizon, namely the US Presidential election campaign and the upcoming FOMC meetings.</p>

As any parent will confirm, teenagers know one thing. Unfortunately, it is “every”-thing. The rest of the population, by contrast, recognizes and appreciates the complexity of the world in which we inhabit, all the uncertainty that this necessarily generates, and the associated risks.Borrowing the lexicon of Donald Rumsfeld, there are two types of risk that we regularly encounter: unknown-unknowns and known-unknowns. As investors we can’t do much about the former, but we can do something about the latter. Indeed, this is the bread and butter of risk managers around the world.Crowd-sourced sentiment indicators provide a new additional tool for investors to monitor and assess a wide variety of financial market risks.  In this note, we demonstrate their applicability before going on to assess the short-run and long-run risks for US equities; particularly pertinent given two substantial known-unknowns looming on the near-horizon, namely the US Presidential election campaign and the upcoming FOMC meetings.

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

Against [Official] Odds It's a Trump USA Now

It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it. There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios....

Charles De Trenck

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were...

Sean Maher

Brexit: Judgement Versus Obedience

Yesterday's high court ruling stating that parliament must have a say before any triggering of Article 50 to start the process for Britain to leave...

Emad Mostaque

Risk: Dealing With Known-Unknowns

As any parent will confirm, teenagers know one thing. Unfortunately, it is “every”-thing. The rest of the population, by contrast, recognizes and...

Amareos

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