Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

* 2Q18 Results Even lower than pre-release; * Overall results appear to have been managed; and *Large capital raise likely on the near-term horizon. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) reported underlying profit before tax of EUR 667 mn (against a pre-release of EUR 696 mn).  Although weaker than initially anticipated, this result appears to have been driven by higher than expected: compensation (staff retention), loan workout gains, lower management fees, a decrease in loan loss…

* 2Q18 Results Even lower than pre-release; * Overall results appear to have been managed; and *Large capital raise likely on the near-term horizon. Investment SummaryDeutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) reported underlying profit before tax of EUR 667 mn (against a pre-release of EUR 696 mn).  Although weaker than initially anticipated, this result appears to have been driven by higher than expected: compensation (staff retention), loan workout gains, lower management fees, a decrease in loan loss…

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations;  * Deutsche still continues to be a multi-year restructuring which is wholly dependent upon the business cycle; and * Despite all the hoopla with these results, Deutsche still has an enormous headache on its hands.  <h2>Investment Summary</h2>Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations. We remain concerned…

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations;  * Deutsche still continues to be a multi-year restructuring which is wholly dependent upon the business cycle; and * Despite all the hoopla with these results, Deutsche still has an enormous headache on its hands.  Investment SummaryDeutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations. We remain concerned…

* Deutsche Bank USA Fails CCAR and Capital Infusion Likely Necessary;* Several Other Banks Passed Conditionally; and *  Deutsche’s  CDS spreads are significantly wider; the belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that Deutsche is far from being out of the woods;  and  the HNA Group and Qatari Share Dumps To Continue. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>All but one of the 35 commercial banks have passed the Federal Reserve Board's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test inclusive of…

* Deutsche Bank USA Fails CCAR and Capital Infusion Likely Necessary;* Several Other Banks Passed Conditionally; and *  Deutsche’s  CDS spreads are significantly wider; the belated S&amp;P downgrade continues to suggest that Deutsche is far from being out of the woods;  and  the HNA Group and Qatari Share Dumps To Continue. Investment SummaryAll but one of the 35 commercial banks have passed the Federal Reserve Board's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test inclusive of…

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

So far the S&amp;P 500 has failed to overcome the 2,790-2,800 resistance level we first highlighted in our 6/5/18 Compass. However, while a breakdown below support remains possible, the S&amp;P 500 is currently at an area where we would expect to see some support. The wild card remains financials.  A breakdown of the sector has the potential to usher in another broad market selloff, which could cause the S&amp;P 500 to fall below 200-day moving average support and lead to more negative breadth signals for the indicators highlighted above. $26.50 on the XLF is the level we are watching.

So far the S&amp;P 500 has failed to overcome the 2,790-2,800 resistance level we first highlighted in our 6/5/18 Compass. However, while a breakdown below support remains possible, the S&amp;P 500 is currently at an area where we would expect to see some support. The wild card remains financials.  A breakdown of the sector has the potential to usher in another broad market selloff, which could cause the S&amp;P 500 to fall below 200-day moving average support and lead to more negative breadth signals for the indicators highlighted above. $26.50 on the XLF is the level we are watching.

U.S. Equities: Downgrading Manufacturing and Materials; Large-Cap Financials at Critical Support

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Turns out Paul Tudor Jones, one of the best long term investors there is, has been on the case of improving Capitalism for sometime. But he came back into the media limelight with a great long interview with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/by/andrew-ross-sorkin" target="_blank">Andrew Ross Sorkin</a> (CNBC/NYT) on Tuesday. The occasion is to time with a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/785" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1">Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS US)</a> launch of a new Social Investing ETF – JUST. JUST is launching this week.The idea is to use Tudor Jones’ guidelines for picking socially engaged companies, using key metrics to select the…

Turns out Paul Tudor Jones, one of the best long term investors there is, has been on the case of improving Capitalism for sometime. But he came back into the media limelight with a great long interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin (CNBC/NYT) on Tuesday. The occasion is to time with a Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS US) launch of a new Social Investing ETF – JUST. JUST is launching this week.The idea is to use Tudor Jones’ guidelines for picking socially engaged companies, using key metrics to select the…

Paul Tudor Jones: Shifting Capitalism's Agenda

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

Deutsche Bank – Dumpster Fire Rages On

* 2Q18 Results Even lower than pre-release; * Overall results appear to have been managed; and *Large capital raise likely on the near-term...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - Still A Dumpster Fire

* Deutsche Bank (DBK.GY/DB.US) [Deutsche] provided a preliminary update with improved capital metrics versus expectations; * Deutsche still...

Thomas J. Monaco

Deutsche Bank - Failed CCAR

* Deutsche Bank USA Fails CCAR and Capital Infusion Likely Necessary;* Several Other Banks Passed Conditionally; and * Deutsche’s CDS spreads are...

Thomas J. Monaco

U.S. Equities: Downgrading Manufacturing and Materials; Large-Cap Financials at Critical Support

So far the S&P 500 has failed to overcome the 2,790-2,800 resistance level we first highlighted in our 6/5/18 Compass. However, while a...

Vermilion Research

Paul Tudor Jones: Shifting Capitalism's Agenda

Turns out Paul Tudor Jones, one of the best long term investors there is, has been on the case of improving Capitalism for sometime. But he came...

Charles De Trenck

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