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Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Headline Developments Apple (AAPL) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are reportedly partnering to launch a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service through Apple Pay, according to Bloomberg .  The service will reportedly allow users to spread payments of their purchases across four interest-free payments every two weeks, or across several months with interest.

Headline Developments Apple (AAPL) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are reportedly partnering to launch a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service through Apple Pay, according to Bloomberg .  The service will reportedly allow users to spread payments of their purchases across four interest-free payments every two weeks, or across several months with interest.

Bond market data and technology, BondEvalue

BondEvalue

Bond market data and technology

BondEvalue is a Singapore-based Fintech that specializes in bond market data and technology. The company's information services business offers bond market data on hard-currency corporate & sovereign bonds across Asia, Middle East, Europe and the Americas. The data, which includes bond prices, yields, news and analytics, is offered to end investors via interactive Mobile and Web Apps. Investors can sign up for a free trial of the service either via the company's website (https://bondevalue.com) or by downloading the BondEvalue Mobile App (http://onelink.to/wej7jq). BondEvalue is also developing an electronic bond exchange, BondbloX in Singapore that allows investors to trade bonds electronically in smaller sizes (US$1,000 or equivalent). For more information, visit https://www.bondblox.com/

Bond Market Data and Technology

Credit

US Markets retreated from their early gains even after strong Q2 earnings from banking majors JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs (details below). S&amp;P and Nasdaq were down ~0.4% with the fall spearheaded by Boeing’s 4.2% drop after the FAA reported a manufacturing quality issue on its 787 fleet (details below). Real Estate, down 1.3% and Consumer Discretionary down 1.2% led the drop while IT up 0.4% provided some support. Financials, Industrials and Energy were also down ~1%. US CPI  rose to 0.9% MoM in June against a forecast of 0.5% – the largest one month change since June 2008. The inflation reading YoY came in at 5.4%, the highest in 13 years, vs. an estimate of 5.0%. The Core CPI, the index for all items less food and energy, rose 4.5% over the last year, the highest since 1991. US 10Y Treasury yields ended 3bp higher to 1.4% after the CPI release and a weak 30Y bond auction. European indices were broadly flat – DAX, CAC and FTSE down 0.01%. US IG and HY CDS spreads widened 0.7bp and 3.8bp respectively. EU main CDS spreads were flat while crossover spreads tightened 0.5bp. Brazil’s Bovespa was up 0.5%. Saudi TASI and Abu Dhabi’s ADX were up 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Asian markets opened in the red – HSI and Shanghai were down 0.4%, Nikkei was down 0.2% and Singapore’s STI was down 0.1%. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads were 0.1bp tighter.

KT Corp Launches $ Bond; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers & Losers

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

Manulife US REIT (MUST) / Equity Bottom-Up

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SGX lists eight actively traded S-Reits with properties in the United States (US). Five out of the eight S-Reits have pure exposure to the US and among them are three US office S-Reits. 
The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on May 13 announced that fully vaccinated individuals do not need to wear masks outdoors and can avoid wearing masks indoors in most places, and updated that life can begin to return to normal despite caution issued by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Nonetheless, US Office S-Reits remain sanguine about companies' return-to-office plans and are adapting to agile and "new normal" arrangements as the US continues to push for normalcy and re-opening of sectors and industries. 
The three US Office S-Reits trade at an average price-to-book ratio of 0.98 times and average 7.8 per cent in distribution yield. All of the three have average committed occupancy rates of over 90 per cent, above the average Class A US office average of 84 per cent, and have weighted average lease expiry (WALE) that range from 4.3 to 5.3 years. 
Manulife US Reit (MUST), which has an occupancy rate of 92 per cent, has observed more tenants gradually returning to the office with May 2021's portfolio physical occupancy at 20.0 per cent, versus 13.3 per cent seen in Jan 2021. The Reit notes that offices continue to remain relevant as companies adopt a hybrid model and the majority of employers do require the same if not more office space post Covid-19, driven by the demand for rising headcount and social distancing needs.

MUST sees post-Covid-19 themes such as the acceleration of population and company migration to magnet cities, growing tech sector, strong demand for health care, and fast developing knowledge economy to provide uplift for the Reit. MUST has a focus to target magnet cities which are defined as having attributes such as growing tech tenants, population growth, business friendly and lower costs of living.

Prime US Reit (Prime) sees interest in its assets pick up as tenants make longer-term leasing decisions, despite the current low physical occupancy. Its current portfolio occupancy rate is at 91.7 per cent. Some of its tenants which include Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo have also made plans for employees to return to the office by July 2021.

In securing new leases, Prime notes that its new tenants are largely from diverse established and technology sectors. The Reit observes that the US office transaction market has shown signs of activity in recent weeks and it is actively exploring acquisition opportunities in its target markets.

Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit (KORE) has a 91.6 per cent portfolio committed occupancy rate and believes that the rollout of vaccines and removal of restrictions is raising confidence and optimism. LaSalle Network's Office Re-Entry Index shows that 70 per cent of CEOs, human resources and finance leaders are planning for employees to return to the office by fall 2021.

KORE has a focus in markets with exposure to technology hubs and tech-tenancy. Its recent leasing activities are driven mainly by demand from professional services, finance and insurance, and technology. Over 37 per cent of its current portfolio by net lettable area comprises tenants from technology and medical and healthcare.  REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, <a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/us-office-s-reits-half-empty-or-half-full">read</a> the original version.
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    8 SREIT with exposes to US assets


SGX lists eight actively traded S-Reits with properties in the United States (US). Five out of the eight S-Reits have pure exposure to the US and among them are three US office S-Reits.  
The US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on May 13 announced that fully vaccinated individuals do not need to wear masks outdoors and can avoid wearing masks indoors in most places, and updated that life can begin to return to normal despite caution issued by the World Health Organization (WHO).

Nonetheless, US Office S-Reits remain sanguine about companies' return-to-office plans and are adapting to agile and "new normal" arrangements as the US continues to push for normalcy and re-opening of sectors and industries.  
The three US Office S-Reits trade at an average price-to-book ratio of 0.98 times and average 7.8 per cent in distribution yield. All of the three have average committed occupancy rates of over 90 per cent, above the average Class A US office average of 84 per cent, and have weighted average lease expiry (WALE) that range from 4.3 to 5.3 years.  
Manulife US Reit (MUST), which has an occupancy rate of 92 per cent, has observed more tenants gradually returning to the office with May 2021's portfolio physical occupancy at 20.0 per cent, versus 13.3 per cent seen in Jan 2021. The Reit notes that offices continue to remain relevant as companies adopt a hybrid model and the majority of employers do require the same if not more office space post Covid-19, driven by the demand for rising headcount and social distancing needs.

MUST sees post-Covid-19 themes such as the acceleration of population and company migration to magnet cities, growing tech sector, strong demand for health care, and fast developing knowledge economy to provide uplift for the Reit. MUST has a focus to target magnet cities which are defined as having attributes such as growing tech tenants, population growth, business friendly and lower costs of living.

Prime US Reit (Prime) sees interest in its assets pick up as tenants make longer-term leasing decisions, despite the current low physical occupancy. Its current portfolio occupancy rate is at 91.7 per cent. Some of its tenants which include Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo have also made plans for employees to return to the office by July 2021.

In securing new leases, Prime notes that its new tenants are largely from diverse established and technology sectors. The Reit observes that the US office transaction market has shown signs of activity in recent weeks and it is actively exploring acquisition opportunities in its target markets.

Keppel Pacific Oak US Reit (KORE) has a 91.6 per cent portfolio committed occupancy rate and believes that the rollout of vaccines and removal of restrictions is raising confidence and optimism. LaSalle Network's Office Re-Entry Index shows that 70 per cent of CEOs, human resources and finance leaders are planning for employees to return to the office by fall 2021.

KORE has a focus in markets with exposure to technology hubs and tech-tenancy. Its recent leasing activities are driven mainly by demand from professional services, finance and insurance, and technology. Over 37 per cent of its current portfolio by net lettable area comprises tenants from technology and medical and healthcare.   REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



REIT Watch - US office S-Reits - half empty or half full?

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*No Stranger To Losses: As initially discussed in our “Credit Suisse Group – Hit Parade Continues” note dated March 30, 2021, we expressed our concerns related to various high profile screw-ups at Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX) [Credit Suisse]. Credit Suisse’ high profile challenges still include: Archegos Capital Management; Greensill Capital; Wirecard, and Luckin Coffee; and   *Adding Insult To Injury: According to Bloomberg, construction start-up, Katerra, has burned through over USD 2.0 bn and is now being shut down.  Credit Suisse initially indicated losses of between USD 1.0-USD 1.5 bn on its Greensill-related exposures.  Well, this figure appears to increase those losses closer to USD 2.0 bn.

*No Stranger To Losses: As initially discussed in our “Credit Suisse Group – Hit Parade Continues” note dated March 30, 2021, we expressed our concerns related to various high profile screw-ups at Credit Suisse Group (CSGN.VX) [Credit Suisse]. Credit Suisse’ high profile challenges still include: Archegos Capital Management; Greensill Capital; Wirecard, and Luckin Coffee; and   *Adding Insult To Injury: According to Bloomberg, construction start-up, Katerra, has burned through over USD 2.0 bn and is now being shut down.  Credit Suisse initially indicated losses of between USD 1.0-USD 1.5 bn on its Greensill-related exposures.  Well, this figure appears to increase those losses closer to USD 2.0 bn.  

Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Executive Summary: A liquidity driven melt-up combined with month-end rebalancing to drive bank credit spread performance over the last week. Remove the month-end rebalancing and short duration positioning may remain the best strategy over the next few weeks, absent a material inflection point in the upcoming non-farm payroll numbers. The short end of the rates market continued to push investors up the curve to generate returns. Awash with still rising liquidity, this melt-up was the key driver of credit spread outperformance.Risk asset volatility and talking about, talking about, talking about tapering had little lasting impact on US interest rates over the last few weeks. In fact, rate curve flattening, and falling forward breakeven rates, suggest that the interest rate market may buy the Fed’s assessment of inflation as being transitory.While the transitory mantra is believed, whispers of supply driven growth constraints are being mentioned. This would be interest rate and credit spread positive as it would extend the duration of the recovery and thereby delay late-stage economic cycle repositioning. Although not consensus, this thought is disconcerting, as it suggests the rising rates consensus is very wrong.Therefore, the risk is clearly that the rates market is underpricing the potential for an extended period of higher than anticipated inflation. However, holding cash is expensive. Moving too early to position for higher or longer than anticipated inflation may be career ending. Extending duration to take advantage of declining rates is considered insane. Carry trades remain unloved. Ergo, the silent self-doubtful suffering of the rate and credit markets. Security selection based on fundamental analysis, in so much as one avoids unexpected spread widening, may be the differentiator for outsized total returns over the next few weeks.  We elaborate on these themes within.Market Outlook: The question is whether the over-heating narrative will make a comeback and bring rate and tapering expectations closer. Financial stability risks appear binary from here. Either the Fed is over-accommodative, and it sits on its hands too long while asset bubbles over-inflate so that it gets nasty when it moves, or the Fed gets impatient, and it lowers accommodation unexpectedly which creates a risk off reaction. In both cases, curves flatten in a risk-off environment. We suspect the former is more likely, and for now, the Fed remains the bartender rather than the bouncer.

Executive Summary: A liquidity driven melt-up combined with month-end rebalancing to drive bank credit spread performance over the last week. Remove the month-end rebalancing and short duration positioning may remain the best strategy over the next few weeks, absent a material inflection point in the upcoming non-farm payroll numbers. The short end of the rates market continued to push investors up the curve to generate returns. Awash with still rising liquidity, this melt-up was the key driver of credit spread outperformance.Risk asset volatility and talking about, talking about, talking about tapering had little lasting impact on US interest rates over the last few weeks. In fact, rate curve flattening, and falling forward breakeven rates, suggest that the interest rate market may buy the Fed’s assessment of inflation as being transitory.While the transitory mantra is believed, whispers of supply driven growth constraints are being mentioned. This would be interest rate and credit spread positive as it would extend the duration of the recovery and thereby delay late-stage economic cycle repositioning. Although not consensus, this thought is disconcerting, as it suggests the rising rates consensus is very wrong.Therefore, the risk is clearly that the rates market is underpricing the potential for an extended period of higher than anticipated inflation. However, holding cash is expensive. Moving too early to position for higher or longer than anticipated inflation may be career ending. Extending duration to take advantage of declining rates is considered insane. Carry trades remain unloved. Ergo, the silent self-doubtful suffering of the rate and credit markets. Security selection based on fundamental analysis, in so much as one avoids unexpected spread widening, may be the differentiator for outsized total returns over the next few weeks.  We elaborate on these themes within.Market Outlook: The question is whether the over-heating narrative will make a comeback and bring rate and tapering expectations closer. Financial stability risks appear binary from here. Either the Fed is over-accommodative, and it sits on its hands too long while asset bubbles over-inflate so that it gets nasty when it moves, or the Fed gets impatient, and it lowers accommodation unexpectedly which creates a risk off reaction. In both cases, curves flatten in a risk-off environment. We suspect the former is more likely, and for now, the Fed remains the bartender rather than the bouncer.

Bank Credit Weekly: Month-End Rebalancing Takes Risk-Off Before Take-Off

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #40

Headline Developments Apple (AAPL) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are reportedly partnering to launch a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service through Apple

Granite Bay Capital

KT Corp Launches $ Bond; Macro; Rating Changes; New Issues; Talking Heads; Top Gainers & Losers

US Markets retreated from their early gains even after strong Q2 earnings from banking majors JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs (details below). S&P...

BondEvalue

REIT Watch - US office S-Reits - half empty or half full?

SGX lists eight actively traded S-Reits with properties in the United States (US). Five out of the eight S-Reits have pure...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Credit Suisse Group – Here We Go Again

CREDIT SUISSE GROUP: There were already concerns related to various high profile screw-ups. The latest appears to be Greensill-related construction...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bank Credit Weekly: Month-End Rebalancing Takes Risk-Off Before Take-Off

Short duration positioning may remain the best strategy over the next few weeks, absent a material inflection point in the upcoming non-farm...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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