Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway, Odd Lots

Odd Lots

Podcast by Joe Weisenthal & Tracy Alloway

Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tracy and Joe discuss their favorite chat GPT and Claude prompts and how they use them for both serious and fun purposes</li><li>They acknowledge the limitations and risks of using AI in professional settings, especially in large companies like Goldman Sachs</li><li>Marco Argenti, Chief Information Officer at Goldman Sachs, explains his role in ensuring the smooth operation of technology within the company and the evolving use of AI in the financial industry</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Tracy and Joe discuss their favorite chat GPT and Claude prompts and how they use them for both serious and fun purposesThey acknowledge the limitations and risks of using AI in professional settings, especially in large companies like Goldman SachsMarco Argenti, Chief Information Officer at Goldman Sachs, explains his role in ensuring the smooth operation of technology within the company and the evolving use of AI in the financial industryThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Goldman Sachs CIO on How the Bank Is Actually Using AI

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20</li>
<li>JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US</li>
<li>Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs</li>
</ul>


There are few large US banks where quarterly net interest income is more than 1.6x higher now on average than in late FY19 and early FY20
JPM demonstrates some of the best asset-liability management (ALM) of any major bank in the US
Other risks and parts of the business appear to be very well managed too, including credit risk and operating costs


JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Outlook for interest rates in 2024 remains uncertain with market expectations diverging from Fed’s dot plot. Overall, rate cuts are expected in 2024.</li>
<li>Lower rate outlook for 2024 will drive higher deal-making which is likely to benefit Goldman. A slowdown in the US economy could hamper Goldman’s recovery.</li>
<li>Market metrics point to a positive sentiment around Goldman Sachs stock amongst analysts with summary analyst recommendation pointing to a Buy rating and average upside of 11%.</li>
</ul>


Outlook for interest rates in 2024 remains uncertain with market expectations diverging from Fed’s dot plot. Overall, rate cuts are expected in 2024.
Lower rate outlook for 2024 will drive higher deal-making which is likely to benefit Goldman. A slowdown in the US economy could hamper Goldman’s recovery.
Market metrics point to a positive sentiment around Goldman Sachs stock amongst analysts with summary analyst recommendation pointing to a Buy rating and average upside of 11%.


Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

<ul>
<li>Goldman reported FY and Q4 2023 earnings and revenue that topped analysts estimates. Goldman stands to benefit from higher deal-making and lower operating expenses in 2024.</li>
<li>FY2023 earnings and revenue were lower than FY2022 as Goldman faced large losses on its real estate portfolio and retreat from its consumer banking push.</li>
<li>Q4 earnings beat expectations by a huge margin but investment banking fees continued to lag; heading into a looser monetary environment in 2024, Goldman stands to outperform.</li>
</ul>


Goldman reported FY and Q4 2023 earnings and revenue that topped analysts estimates. Goldman stands to benefit from higher deal-making and lower operating expenses in 2024.
FY2023 earnings and revenue were lower than FY2022 as Goldman faced large losses on its real estate portfolio and retreat from its consumer banking push.
Q4 earnings beat expectations by a huge margin but investment banking fees continued to lag; heading into a looser monetary environment in 2024, Goldman stands to outperform.


Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 1)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ally-financial-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9683:1" rel="noopener">Ally Financial (ALLY US)</a> gave a poor view of now and the immediate future for credit costs within its primary loan book, used cars for subprime borrowers</li>
<li>There is often good read-through for mainstream banks and overall credit metrics, we saw this in Thailand before 1997 and in the US with Indymac, Countrywide, Household</li>
<li>If the Fed has a better view on granular data than one single finance company, we believe they will use this data when considering rate cut magnitude, next week
</li>
</ul>



Ally Financial (ALLY US) gave a poor view of now and the immediate future for credit costs within its primary loan book, used cars for subprime borrowers
There is often good read-through for mainstream banks and overall credit metrics, we saw this in Thailand before 1997 and in the US with Indymac, Countrywide, Household
If the Fed has a better view on granular data than one single finance company, we believe they will use this data when considering rate cut magnitude, next week



Ally Financial - Suggests Large Fed Cut, Credit Cost Guidance Worsening, Fringe Finco View Can Lead

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

Goldman Sachs CIO on How the Bank Is Actually Using AI

Tracy and Joe explore the use of AI chat GPT prompts for both professional and creative purposes, showcasing the potential of AI tools while...

Odd Lots

JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

JPM shows some of the best rise of quarterly net interest income in US banking, and we believe this is very much due strong ALM, which is core to...

Daniel Tabbush

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

The uncertain outlook for interest rates in 2024 provides diverging outlook for Goldman stock's performance. In this part 2 paper, Mint Finance...

Mint Finance

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 1)

Goldman Sachs surpasses analysts' estimates with strong FY and Q4 2023 earnings, benefiting from increased deal-making and reduced operating...

Mint Finance

Ally Financial - Suggests Large Fed Cut, Credit Cost Guidance Worsening, Fringe Finco View Can Lead

New disclosure, comments, guidance from Ally Financial show a major deterioration in credit metrics now, in coming months, which can mean a larger...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Goldman Sachs CIO on How the Bank Is Actually Using AI

Tracy and Joe explore the use of AI chat GPT prompts for both professional and creative purposes, showcasing the potential of AI tools while...

Odd Lots

JPM - Exceptional Core Income Strength, ALM Is Excellent, HFD for US Banks Supports Outlook

JPM shows some of the best rise of quarterly net interest income in US banking, and we believe this is very much due strong ALM, which is core to...

Daniel Tabbush

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

The uncertain outlook for interest rates in 2024 provides diverging outlook for Goldman stock's performance. In this part 2 paper, Mint Finance...

Mint Finance

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 1)

​Goldman Sachs surpasses analysts' estimates with strong FY and Q4 2023 earnings, benefiting from increased deal-making and reduced operating...

Mint Finance

Ally Financial - Suggests Large Fed Cut, Credit Cost Guidance Worsening, Fringe Finco View Can Lead

New disclosure, comments, guidance from Ally Financial show a major deterioration in credit metrics now, in coming months, which can mean a larger...

Daniel Tabbush

Goldman Sachs surpasses analysts' estimates with strong FY and Q4 2023 earnings, benefiting from increased deal-making and reduced operating...