Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

China Iron Ore shows a compelling top unfolding that opens the way for fallout back to the early to mid 2018 lows with increasing odds of a major break below this support.MACD bear triangulation shows pent up energy for a break below 2018 lows that would open the way lower with risk of a 30% decline. MACD triangles are the most powerful chart set up.Evidence of slowing growth is becoming more pronounced from Europe to Asia amid tightening liquidity. Tactical rise in commodities should be used to re cycle strategic shorts.US ISM chart also displays a reliable top pattern that calls for a sharp decline in 2019.

China Iron Ore shows a compelling top unfolding that opens the way for fallout back to the early to mid 2018 lows with increasing odds of a major break below this support.MACD bear triangulation shows pent up energy for a break below 2018 lows that would open the way lower with risk of a 30% decline. MACD triangles are the most powerful chart set up.Evidence of slowing growth is becoming more pronounced from Europe to Asia amid tightening liquidity. Tactical rise in commodities should be used to re cycle strategic shorts.US ISM chart also displays a reliable top pattern that calls for a sharp decline in 2019.

Iron Ore Peak with Designs on a 30% Decline

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

The recent global sell-off has caused consternation and confusion among equity investors.  We provide a technical appraisal of the current state of the U.S. equity market, and provide some perspective and guidance for navigating the current period of heightened volatility.

The recent global sell-off has caused consternation and confusion among equity investors.  We provide a technical appraisal of the current state of the U.S. equity market, and provide some perspective and guidance for navigating the current period of heightened volatility.

Technical Appraisal and Expectations for the U.S. Equity Market

Over 25-yrs in Global Materials & Soft Commodities

Charles Spencer

Commodities

INVESTMENT VIEW: Since mid-March there has been the emergence of a negatively sloped correlation between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22886" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1">S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX)</a> with a meaningfully high correlation coefficient of 0.8 since mid-March. 
Parallels could be made to 2011 when Gold also stepped up as the preferred hedge against falling equities, as bonds weren't trusted because of the US debt ceiling crisis.     
We remain short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8632" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8632:1">Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US)</a> ...and hope equities don't crash...

INVESTMENT VIEW: Since mid-March there has been the emergence of a negatively sloped correlation between Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX INDEX) with a meaningfully high correlation coefficient of 0.8 since mid-March. 
Parallels could be made to 2011 when Gold also stepped up as the preferred hedge against falling equities, as bonds weren't trusted because of the US debt ceiling crisis.     
We remain short Spdr Gold Shares (GLD US) ...and hope equities don't crash...

Gold Is Being Used to Hedge an Equity Crash

INVESTMENT VIEW: Challenges remain for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22870" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> bulls from rising real yields as positive catalysts, identified in our last note, fail to emerge.
Real yields continue to rise and appear vulnerable to push through 1%, which is a level not seen since mid-2010. 
Our regression model shows a strong negative correlation between gold prices and real yields, with a fair value for gold at US$1,150/oz assuming 10-year real yields of 1%.

INVESTMENT VIEW:  Challenges remain for Gold (GOLD COMDTY) bulls from rising real yields as positive catalysts, identified in our last note, fail to emerge.
Real yields continue to rise and appear vulnerable to push through 1%, which is a level not seen since mid-2010. 
Our regression model shows a strong negative correlation between gold prices and real yields, with a fair value for gold at US$1,150/oz assuming 10-year real yields of 1%. 

Rising Real Yields Continues to Imped a Gold Rally

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our...

Thomas Schroeder

Iron Ore Peak with Designs on a 30% Decline

China Iron Ore shows a compelling top unfolding that opens the way for fallout back to the early to mid 2018 lows with increasing odds of a major...

Thomas Schroeder

Technical Appraisal and Expectations for the U.S. Equity Market

The recent global sell-off has caused consternation and confusion among equity investors. We provide a technical appraisal of the current state of...

Vermilion Research

Gold Is Being Used to Hedge an Equity Crash

INVESTMENT VIEW:Since mid-March there has been the emergence of a negatively sloped correlation between Gold (GOLD COMDTY) and the S&P 500 (SPX...

Charles Spencer

Rising Real Yields Continues to Imped a Gold Rally

INVESTMENT VIEW: Challenges remain for Gold (GOLD COMDTY) bulls from rising real yields as positive catalysts, identified in our last note, fail to...

Charles Spencer

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