Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.</li><li>This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.</li><li>Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.</li></ul>

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

<ul><li><p>The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.</p></li><li><p>But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.</p></li><li><p>This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.</p></li></ul>

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

<ul><li>Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.</li><li>Yield improvements are projected to account for 79% of global crop production growth, cropland expansion for 15%, and higher cropping intensity for 6% over the outlook period.</li><li>Global growth of sugar consumption will be driven entirely by Africa and Asia, with demand projected to surge in areas where the level of per capita intake is currently low.</li></ul>

Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.Yield improvements are projected to account for 79% of global crop production growth, cropland expansion for 15%, and higher cropping intensity for 6% over the outlook period.Global growth of sugar consumption will be driven entirely by Africa and Asia, with demand projected to surge in areas where the level of per capita intake is currently low.

How Much Do Commodity Prices Rise when Fertilizer Prices Rise?

<ul><li>Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive - as the Fed will likely do more rate hikes.</li><li>The, in some parts, stronger-than-expected job market data we received last week confirmed that view once again.</li><li>We find it interesting that gold hasn’t shown more weakness yet - even as rates continue to rise again.</li></ul>

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive - as the Fed will likely do more rate hikes.The, in some parts, stronger-than-expected job market data we received last week confirmed that view once again.We find it interesting that gold hasn’t shown more weakness yet - even as rates continue to rise again.

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div data-component-type="container"><ul><li>Between the start of the year and 4 May, gold prices rallied by 13%. Since then, they have lost momentum.</li><li>Investors don’t seem eager to buy gold at current levels probably because prices are relatively close to all time high and if prices fall, the current level could not be seen for more than 5 years. </li><li>Previously, we did not hold the view of aggressive rate cuts to come in the near-term but we had expected the easing cycle to start at the end of this year.</li></ul></div><div data-component-type="container"><p>Last week, we changed our Fed view and also our US dollar view. We now expect a recession to start in Q4 and rate cuts to come in Q1 2024. We expect the last rate hike of 25bp at the Fed’s July meeting and no rate cuts this year. We still forecast aggressive rate cuts in 2024. We now have a total of 175 basis point of rate cuts in 2024.</p></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Between the start of the year and 4 May, gold prices rallied by 13%. Since then, they have lost momentum.Investors don’t seem eager to buy gold at current levels probably because prices are relatively close to all time high and if prices fall, the current level could not be seen for more than 5 years. Previously, we did not hold the view of aggressive rate cuts to come in the near-term but we had expected the easing cycle to start at the end of this year.Last week, we changed our Fed view and also our US dollar view. We now expect a recession to start in Q4 and rate cuts to come in Q1 2024. We expect the last rate hike of 25bp at the Fed’s July meeting and no rate cuts this year. We still forecast aggressive rate cuts in 2024. We now have a total of 175 basis point of rate cuts in 2024.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.

The Commodity Report

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost...

The Commodity Report

How Much Do Commodity Prices Rise when Fertilizer Prices Rise?

Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.

The Commodity Report

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive - as the Fed will...

The Commodity Report

Gold - Downgrade of gold price outlook

Previously, we did not hold the view of aggressive rate cuts to come in the near-term but we had expected the easing cycle to start at the end of...

ABN AMRO

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