Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Gold is completing the final touches of a corrective cycle amid washed out sentiment readings and a plunge in flows. This sets up a nice contrarian buying opportunity.Near term hurdles for gold stem from a USD bounce cycle and inflation expectations backing off.Gold shares offer a more leveraged play. Bull wedge is clear in GDX as the proxy for gold shares with buy support near 34 and then again at a more extreme 31 support. A good macro set up that will reward by nearly 80%.

Gold is completing the final touches of a corrective cycle amid washed out sentiment readings and a plunge in flows. This sets up a nice contrarian buying opportunity.Near term hurdles for gold stem from a USD bounce cycle and inflation expectations backing off.Gold shares offer a more leveraged play. Bull wedge is clear in GDX as the proxy for gold shares with buy support near 34 and then again at a more extreme 31 support. A good macro set up that will reward by nearly 80%.

Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Following the November melt-up, we text-mine for clues on inventory restocking dynamics going into year-end</li>
<li>While references to a general inventory restocking in the global financial media are up nearly +4x STDEVs, our data suggests this is the second notable raw materials restocking wave since the recovery began, following a more robust restocking seen in August; nonetheless, the current phase is abnormal relative to typical year-end seasonality, highlighting much-anticipated pent-up demand</li>
<li>Our short-term broad commodity sentiment indicator hit +2x STDEVs, its highest reading since January, on 11/23; this followed a significant spike in China macro sentiment earlier in November, which was preceded by a multi-year record in our Copper sentiment indicator in the first half of the month</li>
<li>Current readings see continued positive sentiment momentum in palladium, copper, aluminum and crude, while negative sentiment persists in pulp, uranium and silver</li>
<li>Our sentiment picture for iron ore and steel has been obfuscated by Australia-China tensions, having turned neutral after readings of +3x STDEV and +1.8x STDEV in recent weeks; but our news attributions also identify reports of seasonally declining BF utilization and end demand in recent weeks</li>
<li>While raw materials-specific and short-cycle industrial restocking may pause in the next 6-8 weeks, the broader global finished goods restocking is likely to remain a supportive factor keeping commodities trading in tighter ranges relative to winter averages </li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


Following the November melt-up, we text-mine for clues on inventory restocking dynamics going into year-end
While references to a general inventory restocking in the global financial media are up nearly +4x STDEVs, our data suggests this is the second notable raw materials restocking wave since the recovery began, following a more robust restocking seen in August; nonetheless, the current phase is abnormal relative to typical year-end seasonality, highlighting much-anticipated pent-up demand
Our short-term broad commodity sentiment indicator hit +2x STDEVs, its highest reading since January, on 11/23; this followed a significant spike in China macro sentiment earlier in November, which was preceded by a multi-year record in our Copper sentiment indicator in the first half of the month
Current readings see continued positive sentiment momentum in palladium, copper, aluminum and crude, while negative sentiment persists in pulp, uranium and silver
Our sentiment picture for iron ore and steel has been obfuscated by Australia-China tensions, having turned neutral after readings of +3x STDEV and +1.8x STDEV in recent weeks; but our news attributions also identify reports of seasonally declining BF utilization and end demand in recent weeks
While raw materials-specific and short-cycle industrial restocking may pause in the next 6-8 weeks, the broader global finished goods restocking is likely to remain a supportive factor keeping commodities trading in tighter ranges relative to winter averages 
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators: December Commodity Sentiment - Restocking into Winter on Pent-Up Demand Expectations

<ul>
<li>We examine a range of gold-related custom indicators to chart the thematic catalysts for gold's persistent weakness since August</li>
<li>Inflation hedging interest is back, having last spiked with gold in early August; but as our text-mining highlights, inflation hedging is now primarily associated with cryptocurrencies rather than precious metals </li>
<li> Gold saw a post-election false start which was abruptly halted by a barrage of vaccine news, and more recently hints of an orderly presidential transition; as a result of lingering post-election dissonance, our diffusion of positive vs. negative gold commentary does not point to imminent reversal from recent negative trends</li>
<li>Global financial media discussion of stimulus has dropped to a YTD low, which appears to be strongly correlated with gold's recent move, replaced by a spike in discussion of easing financial conditions</li>
<li>After a September-October hiatus, we see an upward slope in our text-mined weak-USD expressions indicator in recent weeks, though far less dramatic than the multi-STDEV spike seen over the summer</li>
<li>Mentions of tail risk hedging declined to a 14-month low, having peaked in early April</li>
<li>With gold/SPX T6M correlation running at a decade-high +87% in September, gold's traditional "uncorrelated" portfolio function has been called into question for good reason; similarly, positive gold/USD correlations in the past 3-4 months have not inspired confidence, but given the short interval this does not stand out as abnormally dysfunctional</li>
<li>Overall, we see gold-positive inflation hedge demand, persistent pressure on USD and easing financial conditions as currently more than offset by gold's recent dysfunctions, BTC's emergence as competing inflation hedge, lack of interest in tail risk hedging and falling stimulus expectations; we see short-term downside limited to ~1x STDEV or $1700-1725/oz based on the current data set, following significant unwind of speculative interest and ETF outflows</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight">TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </div>


We examine a range of gold-related custom indicators to chart the thematic catalysts for gold's persistent weakness since August
Inflation hedging interest is back, having last spiked with gold in early August; but as our text-mining highlights, inflation hedging is now primarily associated with cryptocurrencies rather than precious metals 
 Gold saw a post-election false start which was abruptly halted by a barrage of vaccine news, and more recently hints of an orderly presidential transition; as a result of lingering post-election dissonance, our diffusion of positive vs. negative gold commentary does not point to imminent reversal from recent negative trends
Global financial media discussion of stimulus has dropped to a YTD low, which appears to be strongly correlated with gold's recent move, replaced by a spike in discussion of easing financial conditions
After a September-October hiatus, we see an upward slope in our text-mined weak-USD expressions indicator in recent weeks, though far less dramatic than the multi-STDEV spike seen over the summer
Mentions of tail risk hedging declined to a 14-month low, having peaked in early April
With gold/SPX T6M correlation running at a decade-high +87% in September, gold's traditional "uncorrelated" portfolio function has been called into question for good reason; similarly, positive gold/USD correlations in the past 3-4 months have not inspired confidence, but given the short interval this does not stand out as abnormally dysfunctional
Overall, we see gold-positive inflation hedge demand, persistent pressure on USD and easing financial conditions as currently more than offset by gold's recent dysfunctions, BTC's emergence as competing inflation hedge, lack of interest in tail risk hedging and falling stimulus expectations; we see short-term downside limited to ~1x STDEV or $1700-1725/oz based on the current data set, following significant unwind of speculative interest and ETF outflows
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining the Thematics Behind Gold's Disappointing Fall

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>
Capital outflows (largely ‘safe’ assets) major risk for US dollar</li>
<li>
Asian currencies appear to be targeted by policy-makers</li>
<li>
Euro (and gold bullion) main beneficiaries of weaker US dollar</li>
<li>
5-10% US dollar depreciation, but Euro testing US$1.30-1.40/€</li>
</ul>



Capital outflows (largely ‘safe’ assets) major risk for US dollar

Asian currencies appear to be targeted by policy-makers

Euro (and gold bullion) main beneficiaries of weaker US dollar

5-10% US dollar depreciation, but Euro testing US$1.30-1.40/€


2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> faces headwinds from steeper yield, a weaker USD and equity risk on pressures. Worth noting that gold has been trading more like a risk asset in recent months shifting away for a risk off hedge.Gold's November 9th plunge saw the breakout above 1,920/40 fail with a fresh focus back on the 1,850 pivot.The descending bull wedge stands out as the zone to buy near lower wedge support that currently runs near 1,820-00 depending with a slide in time translation. Bull wedge formations typically have a 70% probability of breaking to the upside.Our macro stance remains bullish for gold which may need a DXY low near 90.50 and SPX high near 3,800 for a clearer upside path.We seeing a buy level near 1,800 where the 200 dma, price and lower wedge support meet.

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) faces headwinds from steeper yield, a weaker USD and equity risk on pressures. Worth noting that gold has been trading more like a risk asset in recent months shifting away for a risk off hedge.Gold's November 9th plunge saw the breakout above 1,920/40 fail with a fresh focus back on the 1,850 pivot.The descending bull wedge stands out as the zone to buy near lower wedge support that currently runs near 1,820-00 depending with a slide in time translation. Bull wedge formations typically have a 70% probability of breaking to the upside.Our macro stance remains bullish for gold which may need a DXY low near 90.50 and SPX high near 3,800 for a clearer upside path.We seeing a buy level near 1,800 where the 200 dma, price and lower wedge support meet.

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Gold and GDX Macro Bull Set Up

Gold is completing the final touches of a corrective cycle amid washed out sentiment readings and a plunge in flows. This sets up a nice contrarian...

Thomas Schroeder

TMI Indicators: December Commodity Sentiment - Restocking into Winter on Pent-Up Demand Expectations

We text-mine for clues on the current restocking, and believe the anticipation of pent-up demand is likely to keep the commodities trading in a...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshot: Text-Mining the Thematics Behind Gold's Disappointing Fall

We chart the thematic catalysts for gold's persistent weakness since August with a range of gold-related custom text-mined indicators, offering...

Elan Gore

2021 Outlook: Will The Dollar’s Long-Term Devaluation Continue?

Capital flows drive currencies and capital is beginning to quit the US. The shadow that looms over the US dollar is the whopping US$5-6 trillion...

Michael J. Howell

Re Loading Gold Long

Gold's bull wedge stands out as the zone to buy (also where the 200 dma and price support coincide). Bull wedge formations have a 70% probability...

Thomas Schroeder

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