Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups, The Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investor

Adventurous Investing For Grown Ups

The Adventurous Investor

Introducing private investors to adventurous investment ideas. What does this mean in practice? I’d identify several core themes: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) both in the US and the UK. I’ll look both at the theory underlying these very popular funds as well as the constant stream of new launches. I’ll also feature some model portfolios, with a simple mix of ETFs to suit all tastes. Alternative investment ideas. This is a deliberately wide brief but takes in everything from real asset-backed funds (property and infrastructure for instance) through to music and art…and most things in between. I’ll also journey on adventures overseas and look at alternative emerging and frontier countries and markets that should feature in your portfolio. From Russia to Africa and plenty of exciting places in between. For a UK audience I will also continue to regularly analyze and comment on the listed closed-end fund segment and investment trusts. Last but by no means least I’ll try and make sense of the big macro stories that impact investors. I’ll also weave into this my own slightly idiosyncratic views which I’m afraid mark me out as a liberal/ social-democratic inclined centrist Dad (which is I fear sometimes seen as a tag of shame in these radicalized days).

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!</li><li>They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.</li><li>I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. </li></ul>

I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are!They come in two guises. The first, below, is my overall take on the range of asset classes. There aren’t any changes this time. I’m still wary of equities, especially US equities, though, paradoxically, if I must own US equities, I would rather own the really big mega-cap tech names.I have a neutral position overall in equities, which implies a 60/40 equities/bonds balance, which hasn’t changed for a while – I wouldn’t be racing to put even more money to work in equities. 

Monday Macro – Asset allocation update, the Nvidia show, stubborn rates, and Gold

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Commodities

<ul><li>Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.</li><li>Notably, early February saw the emergence of two contrarian signals that merited closer attention.</li><li>While these signals are not foolproof market timing tools, they warrant attention when they align with technical support levels within an established consolidation pattern.</li></ul>

Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.Notably, early February saw the emergence of two contrarian signals that merited closer attention.While these signals are not foolproof market timing tools, they warrant attention when they align with technical support levels within an established consolidation pattern.

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.</li><li>The investment bank expects ⅔ of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks.</li><li>CTA’s have meanwhile built a decent short position in agriculturals, and flows should remain negative there.</li></ul>

CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.The investment bank expects ⅔ of those flows to reverse in the next two weeks.CTA’s have meanwhile built a decent short position in agriculturals, and flows should remain negative there.

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

<ul><li>As per the International Cocoa Organization, there was a deficit of 216kt in the global market during 2021/22 and 99kt in 2022/23.</li><li>With a significant decline in West African output in the ongoing 2023/24 season, it is anticipated that the market will experience a substantial third deficit, nearing 400kt.</li><li>This would result in stocks reaching their lowest levels in at least a decade.</li></ul>

As per the International Cocoa Organization, there was a deficit of 216kt in the global market during 2021/22 and 99kt in 2022/23.With a significant decline in West African output in the ongoing 2023/24 season, it is anticipated that the market will experience a substantial third deficit, nearing 400kt.This would result in stocks reaching their lowest levels in at least a decade.

<ul><li>In his presentation Thursday morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said input prices are not falling with commodity prices, squeezing margins.</li><li>"When commodity prices normalize and readjust, those input prices tend to be sticky, which shrinks producer margins," Meyer says. "...It was maybe easier to make a little bit of money in '22, '23.</li><li>It's going to be a little bit tougher in the next crop year."</li></ul>

In his presentation Thursday morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said input prices are not falling with commodity prices, squeezing margins."When commodity prices normalize and readjust, those input prices tend to be sticky, which shrinks producer margins," Meyer says. "...It was maybe easier to make a little bit of money in '22, '23.It's going to be a little bit tougher in the next crop year."

Which Commodity Trades "Big Money" currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Monday Macro – Asset allocation update, the Nvidia show, stubborn rates, and Gold

I’ve promised to keep updating my asset allocation tables every couple of months – and, on cue, here they are! They come in two guises.

Adventurous Investor

Silver: Is a Breakout Imminent?

Gold and Silver have remained unresponsive to lower rates, escalating geopolitical risks and higher China and India seasonal demand.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Commodity Hedge Fund Positioning & Red Sea Update

CTA Positioning Update According to UBS’ biweekly CTA momentum study, CTAs bought oil and sold precious metals in size in February.

The Commodity Report

Surging Soft Commodities

With a significant decline in West African output in the ongoing 2023/24 season, it is anticipated that the market will experience a substantial...

The Commodity Report

Which Commodity Trades "Big Money" currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights

In his presentation Thursday morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said input prices are not falling with...

The Commodity Report

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