Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Sovereigns are getting killed across the board this week and it is indeed difficult to find much optimism in that many assets as of this week.</li>
<li>We take some encouragement from being long the least worse of a bad bunch and those few areas that have actually performed.</li>
<li>With that in mind its probably a rather provocative proposition to suggest an event-driven sovereign EM sovereign credit play on a serial default criminal that may offer some decent risk/reward in the short term.</li>
</ul>


Sovereigns are getting killed across the board this week and it is indeed difficult to find much optimism in that many assets as of this week.
We take some encouragement from being long the least worse of a bad bunch and those few areas that have actually performed.
With that in mind its probably a rather provocative proposition to suggest an event-driven sovereign EM sovereign credit play on a serial default criminal that may offer some decent risk/reward in the short term.


EM By EM #15 – Ecuador General Election as a Catalyst?

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.</li>
<li>In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.</li>
<li>Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.</li>
</ul>


Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.
In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.
Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.


Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.</li><li>But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.</li><li>This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.</li></ul>

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

CEO, ByteTree Asset Management

ByteTree Asset Management

Specialising in Bitcoin, Gold and Digital Assets

Investment Manager specialising in bitcoin, gold and digital assets

<ul><li>Finally, we see the beginning of the long-anticipated monetary normalisation in Japan.</li><li>This is the only country in the world to still have negative interest rates, which is odd given inflation has been rising, albeit modestly to Western Economies.</li><li>This ultra-loose policy has seen bond yields remain close to zero while the yen has slumped.</li></ul>

Finally, we see the beginning of the long-anticipated monetary normalisation in Japan.This is the only country in the world to still have negative interest rates, which is odd given inflation has been rising, albeit modestly to Western Economies.This ultra-loose policy has seen bond yields remain close to zero while the yen has slumped.

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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EM By EM #15 – Ecuador General Election as a Catalyst?

Sovereigns are getting killed across the board this week and it is indeed difficult to find much optimism in that many assets as of this week. We...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to...

Steno Research

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost...

The Commodity Report

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

Gold, Yen and Finding the Recession

Finally, we see the beginning of the long-anticipated monetary normalisation in Japan. This is the only country in the world to still have negative...

ByteTree Asset Management

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