Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.</li>
<li>The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.</li>
<li>Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.


More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>What a year it was for European energy prices. Every time it gets emotional, prices behave volatile and sometimes also irrationally.</li><li>That was the reason why <a href="https://commodityreport.substack.com/p/time-to-fade-the-eu-energy-crisis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we called for a peak in European energy prices already back in August of 2022.</a></li><li>Back then, prices were astronomically high. Per BTU, you had to pay $93 for US crude oil, $500 for European TTF natgas, and meanwhile, “only” $54 for US Henry Hub natgas for the forward futures contract.</li></ul>

What a year it was for European energy prices. Every time it gets emotional, prices behave volatile and sometimes also irrationally.That was the reason why we called for a peak in European energy prices already back in August of 2022.Back then, prices were astronomically high. Per BTU, you had to pay $93 for US crude oil, $500 for European TTF natgas, and meanwhile, “only” $54 for US Henry Hub natgas for the forward futures contract.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 Global debt projected to test US$315 trillion (ex-financials) in 2023, or 312% of World GDP. Too much debt increases financial fragility</li>
<li>
 Financial dominance driving a return to Central Bank QE. Global Liquidity will reverse its recent fall and rebound to US$174 trillion</li>
<li>More liquidity is consistent with a future stabilization and moderate gains in World asset markets. Gold looks to be a winner 
</li>
</ul>



 Global debt projected to test US$315 trillion (ex-financials) in 2023, or 312% of World GDP. Too much debt increases financial fragility

 Financial dominance driving a return to Central Bank QE. Global Liquidity will reverse its recent fall and rebound to US$174 trillion
More liquidity is consistent with a future stabilization and moderate gains in World asset markets. Gold looks to be a winner 



<ul><li>The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US decreased by 1% in November 2022 to 113.5, following a decline of 0,9% in October.</li><li>Only stock prices contributed positively to the US LEI in November.</li><li>The labor market, manufacturing, and housing indicators all weakened—reflecting serious headwinds to economic growth.</li></ul>

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US decreased by 1% in November 2022 to 113.5, following a decline of 0,9% in October.Only stock prices contributed positively to the US LEI in November.The labor market, manufacturing, and housing indicators all weakened—reflecting serious headwinds to economic growth.

<ul><li>Commodities will be the best-performing asset class once again in 2023, handing investors returns of more than 40%, according to Goldman Sachs.</li><li>The Wall Street bank said that while the first quarter may be “bumpy” due to economic weakness in the US and China, scarcities of raw materials from oil to natural gas and metals will boost prices after that.</li><li>The bank forecasts that Brent crude will climb to $105 a barrel in the final quarter of 2023, up from $82 today.</li></ul>

Commodities will be the best-performing asset class once again in 2023, handing investors returns of more than 40%, according to Goldman Sachs.The Wall Street bank said that while the first quarter may be “bumpy” due to economic weakness in the US and China, scarcities of raw materials from oil to natural gas and metals will boost prices after that.The bank forecasts that Brent crude will climb to $105 a barrel in the final quarter of 2023, up from $82 today.

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

With market dynamics still bearish, we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports (3910 on SPX, $177.50 on IWM, and $279 on QQQ) are likely...

Vermilion Research

The Commodity Report #84

What a year it was for European energy prices. Every time it gets emotional, prices behave volatile and sometimes also irrationally.

The Commodity Report

Is QE Returning By Stealth in 2023?

Global Liquidity is set to test US$174 trillion in 2023, after falling sharply in early 2022. China is already easing and the US Fed may be...

Michael J. Howell

The Commodity Report #83

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US decreased by 1% in November 2022 to 113.5, following a decline of 0,9% in October.

The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report #82

Commodities will be the best-performing asset class once again in 2023, handing investors returns of more than 40%, according to Goldman Sachs.

The Commodity Report

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