Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.</li><li>Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.</li><li>If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.</li></ul>

Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<div data-component-type="container"><ul><li>In 2023 gold prices have traded in a USD 1,800-2,000 per ounce range for most of the time. In periods of a stronger US dollar and higher US real yields gold prices moved towards the USD 1,800 level. Recently, gold prices have rallied to USD 2,000 again.</li><li>The recovery in gold prices has happened against the background of lower US real yields, the possible end of the tightening  cycles by the Fed and ECB and the situation in the Middle East (see above). Gold prices face difficulty to move and stay above USD 2,000 and/or to decline below USD 1,800.</li></ul></div><div data-component-type="container"><ul><li>For the coming months we don’t expect a change in these dynamics. However the start of the easing cycle and the large amount of rate cuts we expect for the Fed and the ECB in 2024 should be supportive for gold prices, especially as we expect more aggressive rate cuts by both central banks than the market.</li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In 2023 gold prices have traded in a USD 1,800-2,000 per ounce range for most of the time. In periods of a stronger US dollar and higher US real yields gold prices moved towards the USD 1,800 level. Recently, gold prices have rallied to USD 2,000 again.The recovery in gold prices has happened against the background of lower US real yields, the possible end of the tightening  cycles by the Fed and ECB and the situation in the Middle East (see above). Gold prices face difficulty to move and stay above USD 2,000 and/or to decline below USD 1,800.For the coming months we don’t expect a change in these dynamics. However the start of the easing cycle and the large amount of rate cuts we expect for the Fed and the ECB in 2024 should be supportive for gold prices, especially as we expect more aggressive rate cuts by both central banks than the market.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. </li>
<li>Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.</li>
<li>Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.</li>
</ul>


Geopolitical risks are building, not only because of the developments in the Middle East. Semiconductor companies, including ASML and NVIDIA, got a clear warning this week that their growth ambitions in China are at risk. 
Chinese property developers show ‘Crypto-like’ declines, and downside risks for Commodities appear.
Bond yields keep pushing higher, but our fair value estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield points to a peak.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

<ul><li>Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.</li><li>Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?</li><li>But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest</li></ul>

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest

Positioning Watch:  Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

<ul><li>The world has seen significant changes since the last release of Portfolio Watch, marked by the tragic events in the Middle East.</li><li>To add some context, it is perhaps helpful to refresh the six key takeaways before the Hamas incursion into Israel on Saturday.</li><li>1) We are on the sideline on Bonds but it is starting to look juicy 2) Yield curve steepener is good risk reward 3) We’re bearish on equities 4) We don’t wanna bet against the USD 5) Credit spreads are bound to widen  6) We think banks are starting to look detached from fundamentals</li></ul>

The world has seen significant changes since the last release of Portfolio Watch, marked by the tragic events in the Middle East.To add some context, it is perhaps helpful to refresh the six key takeaways before the Hamas incursion into Israel on Saturday.1) We are on the sideline on Bonds but it is starting to look juicy 2) Yield curve steepener is good risk reward 3) We’re bearish on equities 4) We don’t wanna bet against the USD 5) Credit spreads are bound to widen  6) We think banks are starting to look detached from fundamentals

Portfolio Watch: The Art of Resisting Panic

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?

We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.

Steno Research

Gold price outlook

Outlook 2024 Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below...

ABN AMRO

The Weekly Market Monitor – Where’s the Plunge Protection Team?

China's National Team seems absent as Chinese stocks tumble, geopolitics take center stage, but still, Sentiment is not depressed enough.

Jeroen Blokland

Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War

Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion. Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week!

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: The Art of Resisting Panic

The world has seen significant changes since the last release of Portfolio Watch, marked by the tragic events in the Middle East.

Steno Research

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52-week Range

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