Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, with a particular focus on China and metals.</li><li>Allow me to reflect on how the Chinese and Japanese investment cases look from the outside and how Western investors perceive the current rhetoric around the suffering local currencies in the region.</li><li>The CNY once again “slow burns” versus the USD this week and we are approaching the 7.30 handle, which has typically been the line in the sand for the PBoC in China.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, with a particular focus on China and metals.Allow me to reflect on how the Chinese and Japanese investment cases look from the outside and how Western investors perceive the current rhetoric around the suffering local currencies in the region.The CNY once again “slow burns” versus the USD this week and we are approaching the 7.30 handle, which has typically been the line in the sand for the PBoC in China.

EM Watch: Western investors are tired of China and Japan “crying wolf”

<ul><li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The standings at the Euros almost perfectly mirror the current cross-regional uncertainties in equity markets. </span></li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">The European election has increased the option-implied volatility premium of European equities compared to US equities, while the FTSE 100 continues to stay “less volatile” in IV terms. </span></li></ul>

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen.The standings at the Euros almost perfectly mirror the current cross-regional uncertainties in equity markets. The European election has increased the option-implied volatility premium of European equities compared to US equities, while the FTSE 100 continues to stay “less volatile” in IV terms. 

Positioning Watch – Markets are buying into US Fixed Income, but fast money don’t agree

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.</li>
<li>False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.</li>
<li>IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.
False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.
IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.


Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

<ul>
<li>The latest job report just dropped, and it’s music to our ears—solidifying our thesis once again.</li>
<li>A few highlights:Construction Hiring: Markedly up again.</li>
<li>This is a strong cycle signal, indicating robust economic activity.</li>
</ul>


The latest job report just dropped, and it’s music to our ears—solidifying our thesis once again.
A few highlights:Construction Hiring: Markedly up again.
This is a strong cycle signal, indicating robust economic activity.


Portfolio Watch: Good news = no cuts = bad news (for metals)

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Continued strong gold demand from central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, drives gold prices up despite high interest rates, challenging conventional expectations.</li>
<li>Weakening economic indicators in the US, like falling job openings and PMI, increase likelihood of rate cuts, potentially elevating the Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) even in a lower interest rate environment.</li>
<li>Anticipating a recession in late 2024, the paper describes a strategic long stance on GSR, leveraging price divergence in gold and silver amid economic slowdown. </li>
</ul>


Continued strong gold demand from central banks, especially the People's Bank of China, drives gold prices up despite high interest rates, challenging conventional expectations.
Weakening economic indicators in the US, like falling job openings and PMI, increase likelihood of rate cuts, potentially elevating the Gold-Silver Ratio (GSR) even in a lower interest rate environment.
Anticipating a recession in late 2024, the paper describes a strategic long stance on GSR, leveraging price divergence in gold and silver amid economic slowdown. 


Precious Perspectives Part 2: Recessionary Fears Fuel Upside Potential in Gold Silver Ratio

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

Price Gauge
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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

EM Watch: Western investors are tired of China and Japan “crying wolf”

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, with a particular focus on China and metals. I used to travel to China and Japan a lot, but I haven’t visited the...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Markets are buying into US Fixed Income, but fast money don’t agree

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen. Denmark advanced as the second team in their Euros...

Steno Research

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch: Good news = no cuts = bad news (for metals)

The latest job report just dropped, and it’s music to our ears—solidifying our thesis once again. A few highlights:Construction Hiring: Markedly...

Steno Research

Precious Perspectives Part 2: Recessionary Fears Fuel Upside Potential in Gold Silver Ratio

Central banks' demand for gold and resurfacing recession fears in the US could push the GSR higher despite bullish silver.

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EM Watch: Western investors are tired of China and Japan “crying wolf”

Welcome to our weekly EM Watch, with a particular focus on China and metals. I used to travel to China and Japan a lot, but I haven’t visited the...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Markets are buying into US Fixed Income, but fast money don’t agree

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, brought to you today from a sunny Copenhagen. Denmark advanced as the second team in their Euros...

Steno Research

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

​The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

Portfolio Watch: Good news = no cuts = bad news (for metals)

The latest job report just dropped, and it’s music to our ears—solidifying our thesis once again. A few highlights:Construction Hiring: Markedly...

Steno Research

Precious Perspectives Part 2: Recessionary Fears Fuel Upside Potential in Gold Silver Ratio

​Central banks' demand for gold and resurfacing recession fears in the US could push the GSR higher despite bullish silver.

Mint Finance

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Central banks' demand for gold and resurfacing recession fears in the US could push the GSR higher despite bullish silver.