Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing</li>
<li>Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors</li>
<li>Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio</li>
</ul>


A monthly review of how the markets and our themes are currently performing
Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio


October Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to the Weekly China Watch, where we examine the Chinese landscape through the lens of Western investors.</li><li>A month ago, flows into China surged following what seemed like a “whatever it takes” moment by Chinese authorities.</li><li>However, these flows have since dwindled, and markets are growing weary of the “headline hockey” or “briefing bingo” from Chinese authorities, who continue to throw around billions and trillions through eye-catching headlines.</li></ul>

Welcome to the Weekly China Watch, where we examine the Chinese landscape through the lens of Western investors.A month ago, flows into China surged following what seemed like a “whatever it takes” moment by Chinese authorities.However, these flows have since dwindled, and markets are growing weary of the “headline hockey” or “briefing bingo” from Chinese authorities, who continue to throw around billions and trillions through eye-catching headlines.

China Watch: This is NOT stimulus. It’s a debt swap!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.</li>
<li>We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.</li>
<li>We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).</li>
</ul>


Outlook remains bullish following the SPX multi-month base breakout above 5670-5783, alongside constructive market dynamics. The market is quite clearly telling us that the path of least resistance is higher.
We would treat any pre-election pullback (if it comes) as a buying opportunity, and we expect to see support on the SPX at 5760 and 5655-5670.
We believe there will be a strong end-of-year rally that will extend into the early part of 2025 due to bullish end-of-year seasonal tendencies during up years (SPX +22.1% YTD).


Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

<ul><li>It’s been almost a month since sentiment around China showed signs of life, spurred by attempts from the PBoC and the Finance Ministry to revive domestic demand.</li><li>While many investors jumped into the China story, hoping that “this time would be different,” we held our position on the sidelines.</li><li>As it turns out, the much-hyped conference where the Finance Minister was expected to deliver large-scale stimulus—a “bazooka” spending package—proved to be mostly a “nothing burger.” We took that as the perfect opportunity to fade the move.</li></ul>

It’s been almost a month since sentiment around China showed signs of life, spurred by attempts from the PBoC and the Finance Ministry to revive domestic demand.While many investors jumped into the China story, hoping that “this time would be different,” we held our position on the sidelines.As it turns out, the much-hyped conference where the Finance Minister was expected to deliver large-scale stimulus—a “bazooka” spending package—proved to be mostly a “nothing burger.” We took that as the perfect opportunity to fade the move.

China Watch: No more stimulus until the USD allows for it

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.</li><li>We are on rates and JPY watch this week with bonds selling off across the curve in the US, and USDJPY is truly on the move as a response—but it is still WAY too overbought if you compare current spot levels to the implied levels when using real-rate spreads as a predictor.</li><li>The problem at this juncture is that the trend in USD real rates has turned for now, and markets are likely reacting to the direction of real rates rather than the actual level, as the carry obtained in USDJPY is still phenomenal.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update.We are on rates and JPY watch this week with bonds selling off across the curve in the US, and USDJPY is truly on the move as a response—but it is still WAY too overbought if you compare current spot levels to the implied levels when using real-rate spreads as a predictor.The problem at this juncture is that the trend in USD real rates has turned for now, and markets are likely reacting to the direction of real rates rather than the actual level, as the carry obtained in USDJPY is still phenomenal.

Positioning Watch – USD rates are suddenly under the loop again

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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October Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review

This insight was Incorrectly titled September review while it is a review of markets and themes for October including HK/China, Japan, India,...

Rikki Malik

China Watch: This is NOT stimulus. It’s a debt swap!

Welcome to the Weekly China Watch, where we examine the Chinese landscape through the lens of Western investors. A month ago, flows into China...

Steno Research

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX; Bitcoin Breaking Out

Downgrading Health Care $XLV to Underweight; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $NDX $IWM; Bitcoin and Silver Breaking Out $IBIT $SLV. Pullbacks =...

Vermilion Research

China Watch: No more stimulus until the USD allows for it

It’s been almost a month since sentiment around China showed signs of life, spurred by attempts from the PBoC and the Finance Ministry to revive...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – USD rates are suddenly under the loop again

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update. We are on rates and JPY watch this week with bonds selling off across the curve...

Steno Research

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