Materials Analyst/Strategist, Janus Analysis

Gaius King

Materials Analyst/Strategist

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6698" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> Recommend BUY
</li>
<li>Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget</li>
<li>150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR, first bullion pour Q219</li>
<li>
Forecast EBIT $A74-84m pa, substantial cashflows starting Q419</li>
<li>
Price/EBIT ratio 8 to 9.1, A$44m cash - no debt</li>
<li>Own virtually the entire Yamarna Greenstone Belt (~ 6,500km2) </li>
<li>A$20m 2019 exploration budget - exceptional prospectivity</li>
<li>Corporate takeover target likely by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25109" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a></li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10152" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10152:1">Aura Energy Ltd (AEE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4293" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4293:1">Catalyst Metals (CYL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20488" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20488:1">Liontown Resources (LTR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11276" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11276:1">Millennium Minerals (MOY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12743" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12743:1">Southern Gold (SAU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5124" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5124:1">Azumah Resources (AZM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10577" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10577:1">Focus Minerals (FML AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14492" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14492:1">Oklo Resources (OKU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7940" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7940:1">Red 5 Ltd (RED AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14062" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14062:1">Troy Resources (TRY AU)</a>
</li>
</ul>



Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) Recommend BUY

Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget
150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR, first bullion pour Q219

Forecast EBIT $A74-84m pa, substantial cashflows starting Q419

Price/EBIT ratio 8 to 9.1, A$44m cash - no debt
Own virtually the entire Yamarna Greenstone Belt (~ 6,500km2) 
A$20m 2019 exploration budget - exceptional prospectivity
Corporate takeover target likely by Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)

Aura Energy Ltd (AEE AU), Catalyst Metals (CYL AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Millennium Minerals (MOY AU), Southern Gold (SAU AU), Azumah Resources (AZM AU), Focus Minerals (FML AU), Oklo Resources (OKU AU), Red 5 Ltd (RED AU), Troy Resources (TRY AU)



New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 01/02/19)

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Morningstar

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Morningstar, Inc.

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We think the market, on balance, is too optimistic on the outlook for the mining services sector, with an average 34% overvaluation for the nine companies we cover. Our sector fair value factors 4.5% annual revenue growth for the five years to fiscal 2021, including no growth in fiscal 2017. EBITDA growth is a bit higher at 6.4%, due to aggressive cost-outs and industry deflation. Mining and energy remain the foundations, supporting an estimated two thirds of sector earnings. However, we don’t expect investment activity here to bottom until fiscal 2018, and even then, expect only a modest turnaround—well below what the market is pricing in. Instead, we view growth stemming from increased maintenance activity, rising public infrastructure spending unrelated to mining and energy (particularly in Australian road and rail programs in line with government budgets), and other specialised nonmining activities like ALS Limited’s life sciences focus. More than half our forecast earnings boost is totally unrelated to resources; we believe the market overestimates the likely improvement in commodity investment.We derive a sector price/fair value of 1.34, with all companies trading at some premium. Least overvalued is are global explosives provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/895" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:895:1">Orica Ltd (ORI AU)</a> at 1.1, and authorised Caterpillar dealer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/803" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1">Seven Group Holdings Ltd (SVW AU)</a> at 1.2. Most overvalued are materials tester <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14351" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14351:1">Als Ltd (ALQ AU)</a> at 1.7, and oil and gas engineering services provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/178" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:178:1">Worleyparsons Ltd (WOR AU)</a>  at 1.6.Analyst: Mark Taylor

We think the market, on balance, is too optimistic on the outlook for the mining services sector, with an average 34% overvaluation for the nine companies we cover. Our sector fair value factors 4.5% annual revenue growth for the five years to fiscal 2021, including no growth in fiscal 2017. EBITDA growth is a bit higher at 6.4%, due to aggressive cost-outs and industry deflation. Mining and energy remain the foundations, supporting an estimated two thirds of sector earnings. However, we don’t expect investment activity here to bottom until fiscal 2018, and even then, expect only a modest turnaround—well below what the market is pricing in. Instead, we view growth stemming from increased maintenance activity, rising public infrastructure spending unrelated to mining and energy (particularly in Australian road and rail programs in line with government budgets), and other specialised nonmining activities like ALS Limited’s life sciences focus. More than half our forecast earnings boost is totally unrelated to resources; we believe the market overestimates the likely improvement in commodity investment.We derive a sector price/fair value of 1.34, with all companies trading at some premium. Least overvalued is are global explosives provider Orica Ltd (ORI AU) at 1.1, and authorised Caterpillar dealer Seven Group Holdings Ltd (SVW AU) at 1.2. Most overvalued are materials tester Als Ltd (ALQ AU) at 1.7, and oil and gas engineering services provider Worleyparsons Ltd (WOR AU)  at 1.6.Analyst: Mark Taylor

Shares Overcook Potential for a Mining Services Turnaround

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments.  These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last month and its significant correction in recent days.  Throughout this move we have been skeptical that the AUD can sustain its rally with significant local political and economic uncertainty.  These risks remain and continue to make it difficult to hold long AUD positions.  On the other hand, political and economic uncertainty in many alternative currencies are equally troubling. In Australia, economic momentum picked up in 2015, but has been more mixed in 2016.  The housing market is starting to ebb from strong levels, political risks remain elevated, bank equity performance has been weak, potentially a drag on confidence.  However, Global drivers remain in control, and while uncertainty is elevated in Australia, it is not clear that it will be sufficient to throw the Australian economy off course.  The RBA Statement continued to express a steady policy outlook albeit with an easing bias.

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<div>In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.</div><ul>
<li>Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).</li>
<li>Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.</li>
<li>The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…</li>
</ul>

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further, and for the composition of growth to evolve, reflecting four key developments.
Slower growth of the working age population (which is largely baked in).
Urbanisation to continue albeit at a more gradual pace.
The still large productivity gap between China and advanced economies to narrow further, the speed of which is subject to the implementation of…


The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today&rsquo;s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative surprises, but the key swing factor over the past month appears to have been the 25% slide in the iron ore price, reflecting lower steel demand associated with renewed weakness in Chinese housing markets but also a lift in expected future iron ore production. Importantly, short-term gyrations in volatile commodity markets are unlikely to sway the RBA, nor does the the slide in the iron ore price provide a positive narrative to ease monetary policy. The RBA has plenty of scope to cut interest rates: the economy remains stuck in a nominal recession, revenue conditions are subdued, there is still considerable slack in the labour market, growth in private sector wages has reached a record low and the inflation outlook does not pose an obstacle to another rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp; But the central bank will likely wait for another month.

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today&rsquo;s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative surprises, but the key swing factor over the past month appears to have been the 25% slide in the iron ore price, reflecting lower steel demand associated with renewed weakness in Chinese housing markets but also a lift in expected future iron ore production. Importantly, short-term gyrations in volatile commodity markets are unlikely to sway the RBA, nor does the the slide in the iron ore price provide a positive narrative to ease monetary policy. The RBA has plenty of scope to cut interest rates: the economy remains stuck in a nominal recession, revenue conditions are subdued, there is still considerable slack in the labour market, growth in private sector wages has reached a record low and the inflation outlook does not pose an obstacle to another rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp; But the central bank will likely wait for another month.

Another line ball decision for the RBA, but expect no change in April

Australia

Gold Road Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration and production company. The Company focuses on its Yamarna Gold Project located east of Laverton, Western Australia.

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Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)

New J. Hutton Exploration Report (Week Ending 01/02/19)

Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) Recommend BUY Gruyere JV (50/50) 91% complete, on schedule and budget 150koz pa Au attributable production to GOR,...

Boost Research

Shares Overcook Potential for a Mining Services Turnaround

We think the market, on balance, is too optimistic on the outlook for the mining services sector, with an average 34% overvaluation for the nine...

Morningstar, Inc.

AmpGFX - AUD in No Man's Land, Political and Economic Risks Remain Elevated

Domestic Australian factors are being overshadowed by global developments. These global drivers account for both its rapid rebound over the last...

Greg Gibbs

RBA Downbeat on Commodity Price Outlook

In a speech today, Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor, flagged that the RBA expects the speed of China's economic development to ease further,...

Sam Ferraro

Another line ball decision for the RBA, but expect no change in April

The market is firmly expecting another rate cut from the RBA at today’s Board meeting. The domestic data flow has not delivered any large negative...

Sam Ferraro

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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