ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Headlines for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> 4Q2022 and FY2022 headlines do not tell the whole story, given large one-off charges for goodwill write-downs, without which significant progress has been made towards profitability. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> significantly reduced incentive&amp;product marketing spending in 4Q but also posted decent growth, albeit at a slower pace, with an increasing emphasis on building foundational products to drive future profitability.</li>
<li>1H2023 will see slower headline growth from a COVID base but 1Q2023 should see improving take rates and CM breakeven. This is the transient stage of the long-term <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> story.</li>
</ul>


Headlines for GoTo 4Q2022 and FY2022 headlines do not tell the whole story, given large one-off charges for goodwill write-downs, without which significant progress has been made towards profitability. 

GoTo significantly reduced incentive&amp;product marketing spending in 4Q but also posted decent growth, albeit at a slower pace, with an increasing emphasis on building foundational products to drive future profitability.
1H2023 will see slower headline growth from a COVID base but 1Q2023 should see improving take rates and CM breakeven. This is the transient stage of the long-term GoTo story.


Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> reported 4Q2022 and full-year 2022 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 18.0% YoY to IDR6.3trn while adjusted EBITDA losses declined to IDR3.1trn vs IDR6.5trn in 4Q2021.</li>
<li>However, adjusted EBITDA as % of net revenues has increased considerably compared to 3Q2022 due to increase in variable costs.</li>
<li>GoTo’s ambitious profitability target would prevent the company from fully exploiting growth opportunities which will lead to further decline in growth rates.</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) reported 4Q2022 and full-year 2022 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 18.0% YoY to IDR6.3trn while adjusted EBITDA losses declined to IDR3.1trn vs IDR6.5trn in 4Q2021.
However, adjusted EBITDA as % of net revenues has increased considerably compared to 3Q2022 due to increase in variable costs.
GoTo’s ambitious profitability target would prevent the company from fully exploiting growth opportunities which will lead to further decline in growth rates.


GoTo: Ambitious Profit Target to Further Stall Growth

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-trimegah-bangun-persada-tbk-harita-nickel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36826:1" rel="noopener">PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ)</a> is looking to raise about US$650m in its Indonesian IPO.</li>
<li>PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel, HN) is a vertically integrated pure-play nickel company operating on Obi Island, Indonesia.</li>
<li>In this note, we will look at our earnings assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) is looking to raise about US$650m in its Indonesian IPO.
PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel, HN) is a vertically integrated pure-play nickel company operating on Obi Island, Indonesia.
In this note, we will look at our earnings assumptions, and share our thoughts on valuation.


Harita Nickel IPO Valuation - Capacity Ramp Ups Will Pay Dividends in the Long Run

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-trimegah-bangun-persada-tbk-harita-nickel" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36826:1" rel="noopener">PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ)</a> is looking to raise about US$650m in its Indonesian IPO.</li>
<li>Harita Nickel is a vertically integrated pure-play nickel company operating on Obi Island, Indonesia.</li>
<li>For our peer comparison exercise, we looked at international nickel mining companies and also included downstream players in the nickel value chain such as Huayou Cobalt and Lygend Group.</li>
</ul>



PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) is looking to raise about US$650m in its Indonesian IPO.
Harita Nickel is a vertically integrated pure-play nickel company operating on Obi Island, Indonesia.
For our peer comparison exercise, we looked at international nickel mining companies and also included downstream players in the nickel value chain such as Huayou Cobalt and Lygend Group.


Harita Nickel IPO Peer Comparison - Seems to Be More Reliant on Lygend, than Vice Versa

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>IPO activity continues to pick up momentum, although the recent market volatility will likely make a few companies reconsider their near term plans.</li>
<li>On the placements front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> hasn't been playing ball, as has been the case with most of the other past deals which offered a trivial discount.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
IPO activity continues to pick up momentum, although the recent market volatility will likely make a few companies reconsider their near term plans.
On the placements front, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) hasn't been playing ball, as has been the case with most of the other past deals which offered a trivial discount.


ECM Weekly (19th Mar 2023) - Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, Harita, Trial Holding, ZKH, DPC, Kelsian

Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - A Transient State

GoTo 4Q2022 and FY2022 headline numbers do not tell the whole story, given large one-off charges for goodwill right downs, without which...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo: Ambitious Profit Target to Further Stall Growth

EBITDA losses narrowed down in 4Q2022 due to cost savings. With top line growth decelerating, GoTo may not be able to hold it for long and will be...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Harita Nickel IPO Valuation - Capacity Ramp Ups Will Pay Dividends in the Long Run

PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) is looking to raise about US$650m in its Indonesian IPO. In this note, we look at...

Clarence Chu

Harita Nickel IPO Peer Comparison - Seems to Be More Reliant on Lygend, than Vice Versa

PT Trimegah Bangun Persada Tbk (Harita Nickel) (2230010D IJ) is looking to raise about US$650m in its Indonesian IPO. HN is a vertically integrated...

Clarence Chu

ECM Weekly (19th Mar 2023) - Japan Post Bank, SBI Sumishin, Harita, Trial Holding, ZKH, DPC, Kelsian

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

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