Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks.</li>
<li>There will be inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index </a>and capping changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index</a> apart from changes to global indices.</li>
<li>While the impact on the merging entities is not big, there will be fairly large flows on some stocks that are index inclusions or affected by capping changes.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger with HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks.
There will be inclusions to the NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index and S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index and capping changes to the Nifty Bank Index apart from changes to global indices.
While the impact on the merging entities is not big, there will be fairly large flows on some stocks that are index inclusions or affected by capping changes.


HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Asian Paints: Asian Paints’ top line grew 11.3% YoY (four-year CAGR: 15%), marginally short of expectations (var: -1.6%)</li><li>The decorative business clocked 16/13% volume/value growth (15/12% volume/value growth YoY in Q4FY23)</li><li>The mix in Q4 was led by economy emulsions and waterproofing</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asian Paints: Asian Paints’ top line grew 11.3% YoY (four-year CAGR: 15%), marginally short of expectations (var: -1.6%)The decorative business clocked 16/13% volume/value growth (15/12% volume/value growth YoY in Q4FY23)The mix in Q4 was led by economy emulsions and waterproofingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Godrej Consumers, Eicher Motors

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Godrej Consumers, Eicher Motors, Aditya Birla Capital

Equity Bottom-Up

Godrej Consumer Products / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GCPL announced the acquisition of Raymond’s FMCG portfolio (Park Avenue and KamaSutra) on a slump sale basis for a total gross consideration of INR 28.3bn (EV/revenue 4.6x and EV/EBITDA ~55x of FY23E)</li><li>The acquisition helps improve GCPL’s India TAM and diversify its offerings into categories with low penetration and multi-year high-growth opportunities</li><li>Besides, the inefficient cost structure of the entity in its present form presents an opportunity to expand the margin from single-digits to mid-teens (management is guiding early-mid-twenties by FY25).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GCPL announced the acquisition of Raymond’s FMCG portfolio (Park Avenue and KamaSutra) on a slump sale basis for a total gross consideration of INR 28.3bn (EV/revenue 4.6x and EV/EBITDA ~55x of FY23E)The acquisition helps improve GCPL’s India TAM and diversify its offerings into categories with low penetration and multi-year high-growth opportunitiesBesides, the inefficient cost structure of the entity in its present form presents an opportunity to expand the margin from single-digits to mid-teens (management is guiding early-mid-twenties by FY25).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Godrej Consumers - Acquisition to Be Earnings Dilutive

<ul><li>Expect improvement in volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)</li><li>Companies have started seeing a gradual recovery in demand, however, it still falls short of a full recovery</li><li>Urban markets returned to positive volume growth while rural markets still remain muted</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Expect improvement in volume CAGR, revenue to grow by 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)Companies have started seeing a gradual recovery in demand, however, it still falls short of a full recoveryUrban markets returned to positive volume growth while rural markets still remain mutedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev: Respite in demand and margins pressure

India

Godrej Consumer Products Limited manufactures personal care, hair care, household care and fabric care products. The Company's products include toilet soaps, cosmetics, shaving creams, talcum powder, household cleaners and fabric detergents.

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Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL IN)

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank merger with HDFC Ltd is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks. There will be ad hoc inclusions to the...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Godrej Consumers, Eicher Motors

Asian Paints: Asian Paints’ top line grew 11.3% YoY (four-year CAGR: 15%), marginally short of expectations (var: -1.6%). The decorative business...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Godrej Consumers, Eicher Motors, Aditya Birla Capital

Asian Paints: Asian Paints’ top line grew 11.3% YoY (four-year CAGR: 15%), marginally short of expectations (var: -1.6%). The decorative business...

HDFC Securities

Godrej Consumers - Acquisition to Be Earnings Dilutive

GCPL announced the acquisition of Raymond’s FMCG portfolio (Park Avenue and KamaSutra) on a slump sale basis for a total gross consideration of INR...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev: Respite in demand and margins pressure

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank merger with HDFC Ltd is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks. There will be ad hoc inclusions to the...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Godrej Consumers, Eicher Motors

Asian Paints: Asian Paints’ top line grew 11.3% YoY (four-year CAGR: 15%), marginally short of expectations (var: -1.6%). The decorative business...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Asian Paints, Godrej Consumers, Eicher Motors, Aditya Birla Capital

Asian Paints: Asian Paints’ top line grew 11.3% YoY (four-year CAGR: 15%), marginally short of expectations (var: -1.6%). The decorative business...

HDFC Securities

Godrej Consumers - Acquisition to Be Earnings Dilutive

GCPL announced the acquisition of Raymond’s FMCG portfolio (Park Avenue and KamaSutra) on a slump sale basis for a total gross consideration of INR...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev: Respite in demand and margins pressure

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 10/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q4FY23 (vs 12/8% in Q4FY22 and 8/10% in Q3FY23)

HDFC Securities

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications