External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The HSIE consumer index sales grew by 9% YoY in Q1FY24 (+36% in Q1FY23 on a low base, +13% in Q4FY23)</li><li>On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24</li><li>Home Care/F&amp;B/Footwear grew in double digits (13/11/11%), while Oral Care/OTC FMCG/Cigarette/BPC underperformed, below the aggregate at 7% each.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The HSIE consumer index sales grew by 9% YoY in Q1FY24 (+36% in Q1FY23 on a low base, +13% in Q4FY23)On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24Home Care/F&amp;B/Footwear grew in double digits (13/11/11%), while Oral Care/OTC FMCG/Cigarette/BPC underperformed, below the aggregate at 7% each.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG: Rural recovery insight, margin recovery to sustain

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>NSE Indices has continued to use the current index methodology to come up with the 5 adds/deletes. The proposed methodology seems to be put on ice for reasons unknown.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shriram-transport-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:253:1" rel="noopener">Shriram Transport Finance</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tvs-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16123:1" rel="noopener">TVS Motor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/acc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:183:1" rel="noopener">ACC</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fsn-e-commerce-ventures-nykaa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33796:1" rel="noopener">FSN E-Commerce Ventures</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-asset-management-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27027:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Asset Management</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indus-towers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8922:1" rel="noopener">Indus Towers</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/page-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4940:1" rel="noopener">Page Industries</a>.</li>
<li>The adds, deletes, capping and funding changes will result in one-way turnover of 13% and in a one-way trade of INR 20.77bn. The impact on the adds/deletes is big.</li>
</ul>


NSE Indices has continued to use the current index methodology to come up with the 5 adds/deletes. The proposed methodology seems to be put on ice for reasons unknown.

Punjab National Bank, Shriram Transport Finance, Trent, TVS Motor and Zydus Lifesciences will replace ACC, FSN E-Commerce Ventures, HDFC Asset Management, Indus Towers and Page Industries.
The adds, deletes, capping and funding changes will result in one-way turnover of 13% and in a one-way trade of INR 20.77bn. The impact on the adds/deletes is big.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow

<ul><li>Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q1FY24 revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 9/38/36% was strong but below expectations</li><li>Transactions grew 9% YoY while volumes were flat, reflecting huge down-trading pressure</li><li>Britannia took price corrections to defend its market share as competitive intensity rose (particularly from local/regional brands)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q1FY24 revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 9/38/36% was strong but below expectationsTransactions grew 9% YoY while volumes were flat, reflecting huge down-trading pressureBritannia took price corrections to defend its market share as competitive intensity rose (particularly from local/regional brands)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumers, Balkrishna Industries

<ul><li>Underlying volume CAGR to sustain revenue to grow by 8/11% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/11% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q1FY24 (vs 23/10% in Q1FY23 and 9/9% in Q4FY23)</li><li>Continuing from previous quarters the demand environment remained stable led by urban markets while rural recovery was below expectation</li><li>The FMCG sector is expected to witness a gradual recovery in demand led by moderating inflation improving consumer confidence and an increase in government spending</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Underlying volume CAGR to sustain revenue to grow by 8/11% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/11% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q1FY24 (vs 23/10% in Q1FY23 and 9/9% in Q4FY23)Continuing from previous quarters the demand environment remained stable led by urban markets while rural recovery was below expectationThe FMCG sector is expected to witness a gradual recovery in demand led by moderating inflation improving consumer confidence and an increase in government spendingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev - Slow Pick-Up in Growth, Margin Expansion to Continue

<ul><li>The HSIE consumer index sales grew by 12% YoY in Q4FY23 (+11% in Q4FY22, +11% in Q3FY23)</li><li>On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 9% growth in Q4FY23, a trend similar to that witnessed in the previous few quarters</li><li>On a four-year CAGR basis, Paints/QSR/F&amp;B/Home Care have grown ahead of our index average (14/13/12/11%) in Q4FY23</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The HSIE consumer index sales grew by 12% YoY in Q4FY23 (+11% in Q4FY22, +11% in Q3FY23)On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 9% growth in Q4FY23, a trend similar to that witnessed in the previous few quartersOn a four-year CAGR basis, Paints/QSR/F&amp;B/Home Care have grown ahead of our index average (14/13/12/11%) in Q4FY23Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Godrej Consumer Products Limited manufactures personal care, hair care, household care and fabric care products. The Company's products include toilet soaps, cosmetics, shaving creams, talcum powder, household cleaners and fabric detergents.

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Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL IN)

FMCG: Rural recovery insight, margin recovery to sustain

On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24

HDFC Securities

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Five Changes; Big Impact; Cross Index Flow

There are 5 changes for the NEXT50 Index as the existing methodology is used. Turnover is huge and there will be big impact on a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumers, Balkrishna Industries

Britannia took price corrections to defend its market share as competitive intensity rose (particularly from local/regional brands)

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev - Slow Pick-Up in Growth, Margin Expansion to Continue

Continuing from previous quarters the demand environment remained stable led by urban markets while rural recovery was below expectation

HDFC Securities

FMCG: Demand recovery lags margins

On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 9% growth in Q4FY23, a trend similar to that witnessed in the previous few quarters

HDFC Securities

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