IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a>, formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm’s shareholders include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK)</a> (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a> (7.2%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berkshire-hathaway-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8635:1" rel="noopener">Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US)</a> (2.8%).  </p><p>Paytm plans to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) with a primary/secondary split of 50%/50%, according to the DHRP filing. </p><p>The Indian Government is highly supportive of digital payments and in 2016, introduced demonetisation efforts through the launch of Unified Payment Interface (UPI) to reduce the reliance on cash. However, India continues to be a cash-driven economy which underscores the opportunity. Due to government initiatives, improving technology, growing awareness, digital payments by value in India are expected to more than double from $20 trillion in FY21 to $40-50 trillion by FY26, according to RedSeer. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>As India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, MobiKwik) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim to the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. Overall, we think that Paytm's fundamentals are attractive. </p></div>

Paytm (PAYTM IN), formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm’s shareholders include Ant Financial Services Group (6688 HK) (29.6% of outstanding shares), Softbank Vision Fund (18.3%), Alibaba Group (BABA US) (7.2%) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc Cl B (BRK/B US) (2.8%).  Paytm plans to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) with a primary/secondary split of 50%/50%, according to the DHRP filing. The Indian Government is highly supportive of digital payments and in 2016, introduced demonetisation efforts through the launch of Unified Payment Interface (UPI) to reduce the reliance on cash. However, India continues to be a cash-driven economy which underscores the opportunity. Due to government initiatives, improving technology, growing awareness, digital payments by value in India are expected to more than double from $20 trillion in FY21 to $40-50 trillion by FY26, according to RedSeer. As India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. The advent of UPI has increased competition (Google Pay, PhonePe, MobiKwik) but Paytm is also leveraging its dominance in digital payments to build a synergistic ecosystem of complementary services, resulting in a strong claim to the “super-app” tag. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. Overall, we think that Paytm's fundamentals are attractive. 

Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App

We aggregate key quotes from earnings, The Transcript

The Transcript

We aggregate key quotes from earnings

Aggregate Key Quotes from Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.</p>

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Financial (1051260D CH)</a>/Ant Group is a technology company that provides digital payment services and digital financial services to consumers and small and micro businesses (SMBs) in China and across the world. Ant said last week it would pursue a simultaneous dual-listing in Hong Kong and on the Shanghai stock exchange’s STAR board. The Hong Kong share sale alone could raise about $10 billion at a $200 billion valuation, according to press reports. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we take a first look at Ant and run through its history, industry and operating segments. We then take a closer look at the rumoured $200 billion valuation in the context of Ant’s financial performance. Based on available disclosure, our estimates and peer group multiples, the $200 billion valuation is justifiable, in our view.  </p></div>

Ant Financial (1051260D CH)/Ant Group is a technology company that provides digital payment services and digital financial services to consumers and small and micro businesses (SMBs) in China and across the world. Ant said last week it would pursue a simultaneous dual-listing in Hong Kong and on the Shanghai stock exchange’s STAR board. The Hong Kong share sale alone could raise about $10 billion at a $200 billion valuation, according to press reports. In this note, we take a first look at Ant and run through its history, industry and operating segments. We then take a closer look at the rumoured $200 billion valuation in the context of Ant’s financial performance. Based on available disclosure, our estimates and peer group multiples, the $200 billion valuation is justifiable, in our view.  

Ant Group IPO First Look: Swarming to Market

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift4-payments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28965:1" rel="noopener">T</a>he bankers provided the IPO price range for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift4-payments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28965:1" rel="noopener">Shift4 Payments (FOUR US)</a> IPO which is expected to be priced between $19 and $21 per share. </strong></p></div><p>Shift4 Payments is one of the leaders in the U.S. in providing integrated payment processing, delivering numerous solutions and value-added services. Companies such as Shift4 Payments that are involved in the payments for online/mobile payments infrastructure are benefiting from the COVID-19 pandemic as customers make more payments with contactless payments and online banking services.</p><div class="content-highlight">
<p><strong>In our base case valuation, we used the gross revenue estimate of $1.1 billion in 2021 and used a P/S multiple of 2.2x, which is at a 40% discount to the valuation multiple of Evo Payments in 2021.</strong> We believe such discounted multiple is appropriate for Shift4 Payments due to its lower gross and operating margins versus Evo Payments, despite the former company's higher gross revenue growth rate. </p>
<p>Despite lower P/S multiple of 2.2x, this suggests an implied market cap of $2.4 billion or $29.40 per share, which represents a 40% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $21 per share. Given the solid upside, we would take this IPO deal.</p>
<p>We also believe that this company could be a nice take out candidate as the global payment industry continues to consolidate rapidly. </p>
</div>

The bankers provided the IPO price range for Shift4 Payments (FOUR US) IPO which is expected to be priced between $19 and $21 per share. Shift4 Payments is one of the leaders in the U.S. in providing integrated payment processing, delivering numerous solutions and value-added services. Companies such as Shift4 Payments that are involved in the payments for online/mobile payments infrastructure are benefiting from the COVID-19 pandemic as customers make more payments with contactless payments and online banking services.
In our base case valuation, we used the gross revenue estimate of $1.1 billion in 2021 and used a P/S multiple of 2.2x, which is at a 40% discount to the valuation multiple of Evo Payments in 2021. We believe such discounted multiple is appropriate for Shift4 Payments due to its lower gross and operating margins versus Evo Payments, despite the former company's higher gross revenue growth rate. 
Despite lower P/S multiple of 2.2x, this suggests an implied market cap of $2.4 billion or $29.40 per share, which represents a 40% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $21 per share. Given the solid upside, we would take this IPO deal.
We also believe that this company could be a nice take out candidate as the global payment industry continues to consolidate rapidly. 


<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yeahka-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28436:1" rel="noopener">Yeahka Limited (9923 HK)</a> is a leading payment-based technology platform in China. Yeahka will commence trading on Monday, 1 June. Yeahka priced its IPO at HK$16.64, at the top-end of the indicative price range of HK$12.64-16.64 per share. Yeahka raised net proceeds of HK$1,528.1 million ($197 million).</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yeahka-ipo-initiation-cashing-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that peeling back the benefit of market growth, Yeahka’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. In light of Yeahka's attractive fundamentals and the improving sentiment towards global payment peers (based on the multiple expansion), we think that the IPO price is attractive. </p></div></div></div>

Yeahka Limited (9923 HK) is a leading payment-based technology platform in China. Yeahka will commence trading on Monday, 1 June. Yeahka priced its IPO at HK$16.64, at the top-end of the indicative price range of HK$12.64-16.64 per share. Yeahka raised net proceeds of HK$1,528.1 million ($197 million).In our initiation note, we stated that peeling back the benefit of market growth, Yeahka’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. In light of Yeahka's attractive fundamentals and the improving sentiment towards global payment peers (based on the multiple expansion), we think that the IPO price is attractive. 

United States

Global Payments Inc. provides electronic transaction processing, information systems, and services.  The Company serves the financial, corporate, government, and merchant communities on a worldwide basis.  Global Payments provides funds transfer, merchant services, merchant accounting, Internet services, and other services.

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Global Payments (GPN US)

Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App

Paytm plans to raise up to Rs166.0 billion ($2.2 billion) with a primary/secondary split of 50%/50%, according to the DHRP filing. Overall, we...

Arun George

The Transcript 05.10.21: Pent-up Demand

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of...

The Transcript

Ant Group IPO First Look: Swarming to Market

Ant Financial (1051260D CH)/Ant Group is a technology company that provides digital payment services and digital financial services to consumers...

Arun George

Shift4 Payments IPO Valuation Analysis

The bankers provided the IPO price range for Shift4 Payments (FOUR US) IPO which is expected to be priced between $19 and $21 per share. Shift4...

Douglas Kim

Yeahka IPO: Trading Debut

Yeahka Limited (9923 HK) is a leading payment-based technology platform in China. Yeahka will commence trading on Monday, 1 June. Yeahka priced its...

Arun George

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