Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We examine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a>, an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. </li>
<li>For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). </li>
<li>Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). </li>
</ul>


We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. 
For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). 
Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and &gt;30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). 


Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), KGI Securities Singapore

KGI Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

KGI Securities Singapore

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<ul><li>Inorganic growth to expand sales volume. As of 31 December 2023, Geo Energy owns 73.11% of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, listed on IDX , and it owns 85% of TRA mine.</li><li>In December 2023 , after the acquisition, TRA had its first export shipment of coal valued at around USD3.2mn based on the ASP of approximately USD58.98 per tonne , which was sold at a premium to the Indonesian Coal Index (ICI) price of USD58.05 per tonne at that time, indicating the favourable demand for TRA coal.</li><li>TRA produces 3,800 kcal/kg gar coal and has 275Mt of 2P coal reserves , leading to a 262% increase in reserves after the acquisition.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Inorganic growth to expand sales volume. As of 31 December 2023, Geo Energy owns 73.11% of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, listed on IDX , and it owns 85% of TRA mine.In December 2023 , after the acquisition, TRA had its first export shipment of coal valued at around USD3.2mn based on the ASP of approximately USD58.98 per tonne , which was sold at a premium to the Indonesian Coal Index (ICI) price of USD58.05 per tonne at that time, indicating the favourable demand for TRA coal.TRA produces 3,800 kcal/kg gar coal and has 275Mt of 2P coal reserves , leading to a 262% increase in reserves after the acquisition.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Company Update: Geo Energy Resources Ltd (GERL SP/RE4.SI)

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In our October 2021 insight, we correctly anticipated a catch-up trade in Indonesian coal names: GEO is up 66.45%, Adaro is up 102% and ITMG is up 37.4%.</li>
<li>Coal is the new tobacco as coal stays stronger for longer due to limited capacity expansion. At spot prices, FY22 div yield is 48% for Adaro and 65% for ITMG.</li>
<li>Shares have re-rated but not as fast as improvement in profits, given historical payout ratios dividend yields in 2022 could be astronomically high capping downside risks.</li>
</ul>


In our October 2021 insight, we correctly anticipated a catch-up trade in Indonesian coal names: GEO is up 66.45%, Adaro is up 102% and ITMG is up 37.4%.
Coal is the new tobacco as coal stays stronger for longer due to limited capacity expansion. At spot prices, FY22 div yield is 48% for Adaro and 65% for ITMG.
Shares have re-rated but not as fast as improvement in profits, given historical payout ratios dividend yields in 2022 could be astronomically high capping downside risks.


Indonesian Coal = the New Tobacco? Dividend Bonanza Coming: 48-65% Dividend Yields Possible

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumitama-agri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7757:1" rel="noopener">Bumitama Agri (BAL SP)</a> is a pure-play CPO play on SGX which like the rest of its peers has lagged the price of CPO by a mile.</li>
<li>What could be the catalyst to change this? We preview FY21 results which will be announced on 28th February and its dividend outlook going into FY22.</li>
<li>BAL should take a page from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geo-energy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8717:1" rel="noopener">Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)</a> playbook and start to pay out aggressive bi-annual dividends to get Mr. Market's attention.</li>
</ul>



Bumitama Agri (BAL SP) is a pure-play CPO play on SGX which like the rest of its peers has lagged the price of CPO by a mile.
What could be the catalyst to change this? We preview FY21 results which will be announced on 28th February and its dividend outlook going into FY22.
BAL should take a page from the Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) playbook and start to pay out aggressive bi-annual dividends to get Mr. Market's attention.


Bumitama Agri: Lagging CPO Price Action; Large Special Dividend Possible at FY21 Results Briefing

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December 2023, 16 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in December was 44.7%. The average YTD is 39% (117 deals).
This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2022 (106 deals), 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

Singapore

Geo Energy Resources Limited is a coal mining specialist based in Indonesia. The Company owns and operates coal mines.

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Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP)

Geo Energy Group (GERL SP): The Case For a >30% Yield in FY27-28

We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP) and the math to support the case that its dividend yield will be >30% over the next two years. We also...

Sameer Taneja

Company Update: Geo Energy Resources Ltd (GERL SP/RE4.SI)

Inorganic growth to expand sales volume. As of 31 December 2023, Geo Energy owns 73.11% of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, listed on IDX , and it...

KGI Securities

Indonesian Coal = the New Tobacco? Dividend Bonanza Coming: 48-65% Dividend Yields Possible

Coal is the new tobacco and could remain stronger for longer with Russian coal out of the market. Shares have re-rated but dividend yields in FY22...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Bumitama Agri: Lagging CPO Price Action; Large Special Dividend Possible at FY21 Results Briefing

Bumitama Agri will celebrate its 10 year listing anniversary in 2022. This opens the door for special dividends as high CPO prices and unhedged...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2023: Vinda, Adbri, Perpetual, CPMC, Sigma Health, Shinko Electric

For the month of December, 16 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$10bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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