New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) has reported mixed 3Q24 operating statistics, with retail performing well, wholesale okay, but Kupe troubles continue.</li><li>Retail volume and price growth continue to be positive, particularly in electricity.</li><li>The Kupe KS-9 well drilled in 2Q24 has not lifted production as expected, with final well commissioning pushed back a further month to the end of May. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) has reported mixed 3Q24 operating statistics, with retail performing well, wholesale okay, but Kupe troubles continue.Retail volume and price growth continue to be positive, particularly in electricity.The Kupe KS-9 well drilled in 2Q24 has not lifted production as expected, with final well commissioning pushed back a further month to the end of May. 

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a 1H24 EBITDAF result of NZ$202m, well down (-32%) on the record 1H24 but that was expected.</li><li>Lower hydro generation volumes, lower Kupe production volumes, and the Unit 5 outage were all challenges GNE had to overcome.</li><li>A positive aspect of the result was no further deterioration in opex. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a 1H24 EBITDAF result of NZ$202m, well down (-32%) on the record 1H24 but that was expected.Lower hydro generation volumes, lower Kupe production volumes, and the Unit 5 outage were all challenges GNE had to overcome.A positive aspect of the result was no further deterioration in opex. 

Genesis Energy - It's Darkest Before Dawn — 1H24 Result

<ul><li>Genesis Energy's (GNE) 2Q/1H24 operating performance saw near average hydro generation, strong retail netback growth and a big decline in Kupe volumes ahead of the new well being brought into production.</li><li>Forecasts are little changed as a result but we lift our target price +10cps (+3.8%) to NZ$2.70, with lower interest rates lifting our multiple and dividend yield based valuation metrics.</li><li>GNE remains our preferred electricity exposure. OUTPERFORM. </li></ul>

Genesis Energy's (GNE) 2Q/1H24 operating performance saw near average hydro generation, strong retail netback growth and a big decline in Kupe volumes ahead of the new well being brought into production.Forecasts are little changed as a result but we lift our target price +10cps (+3.8%) to NZ$2.70, with lower interest rates lifting our multiple and dividend yield based valuation metrics.GNE remains our preferred electricity exposure. OUTPERFORM. 

Genesis Energy - Operating on Gas Again — 2Q24 Op Stats External Inbox Updates

<ul><li>In the beginning Genesis Energy (GNE) was focussed on thermal generation, but it is now joining the exodus to renewable generation with a target of being 95% renewable by 2035.</li><li>To achieve that goal, GNE plans to invest ~NZ$1.1b in solar, wind, and batteries, use its balance sheet more and offtake agreements less.</li><li>The strategy update moves GNE's position in the market away from dividends towards a more growth oriented business, with the -2.6cps cut to the dividend (now 14cps) the cost of using its balance sheet more. </li></ul>

In the beginning Genesis Energy (GNE) was focussed on thermal generation, but it is now joining the exodus to renewable generation with a target of being 95% renewable by 2035.To achieve that goal, GNE plans to invest ~NZ$1.1b in solar, wind, and batteries, use its balance sheet more and offtake agreements less.The strategy update moves GNE's position in the market away from dividends towards a more growth oriented business, with the -2.6cps cut to the dividend (now 14cps) the cost of using its balance sheet more. 

Genesis Energy - Thermal Exodus — 2023 Investor Day

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices and relieve winter 2025 anxiety.</li><li>Energy Margin analysis indicates Mercury (MCY) had the strongest month operationally of the generator/retailers, with Meridian Energy (MEL) still held back by the high cost hedging it took out.</li><li>With Methanex recommencing operations, November 2024 should be a more representative month for the generator/retailers. </li></ul>

October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices and relieve winter 2025 anxiety.Energy Margin analysis indicates Mercury (MCY) had the strongest month operationally of the generator/retailers, with Meridian Energy (MEL) still held back by the high cost hedging it took out.With Methanex recommencing operations, November 2024 should be a more representative month for the generator/retailers. 

Power Points - Hydro Recovery Continues — November 2024

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Genesis Energy - Retail Performing Well

Genesis Energy (GNE) has reported mixed 3Q24 operating statistics, with retail performing well, wholesale okay, but Kupe troubles continue.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - It's Darkest Before Dawn — 1H24 Result

Genesis Energy (GNE) reported a 1H24 EBITDAF result of NZ$202m, well down (-32%) on the record 1H24 but that was expected.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Operating on Gas Again — 2Q24 Op Stats External Inbox Updates

Genesis Energy's (GNE) 2Q/1H24 operating performance saw near average hydro generation, strong retail netback growth and a big decline in Kupe volumes

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy - Thermal Exodus — 2023 Investor Day

In the beginning Genesis Energy (GNE) was focussed on thermal generation, but it is now joining the exodus to renewable generation with a target of...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Hydro Recovery Continues — November 2024

October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices...

Forsyth Barr

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