Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brilliance-china-automotive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:469:1" rel="noopener">Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK)</a> was deleted from local and global indices following its prolonged trading suspension from April 2021 to September 2022.</li>
<li>Following the resumption of trading, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brilliance-china-automotive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:469:1" rel="noopener">Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK)</a> was added to the HSCI in March and subsequently to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>The stock should be bought by global passive trackers over the next few months and there should be substantial passive inflows.</li>
</ul>



Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) was deleted from local and global indices following its prolonged trading suspension from April 2021 to September 2022.
Following the resumption of trading, Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) was added to the HSCI in March and subsequently to Southbound Stock Connect.
The stock should be bought by global passive trackers over the next few months and there should be substantial passive inflows.


Brilliance China (1114 HK): Driving Back Into Passive Portfolios

<ul>
<li>There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.</li>
<li>We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.</li>
<li>All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.


HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 27th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 27th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 27th): Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our list of HK-listed industrial companies indicated that the US generated an average of 22.9% of sales. With diversified production bases, higher tariffs may only affect ~10% of revenue.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Holdings (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aac-technologies-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6544:1" rel="noopener">AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK)</a> are more exposed given their significant US sales yet most production is still in China. </li>
<li>While the US generated over 50% of the revenue of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Industries (669 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nexteer-automotive-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15483:1" rel="noopener">Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK)</a>, they are less exposed given their worldwide manufacturing presence. </li>
</ul>


Our list of HK-listed industrial companies indicated that the US generated an average of 22.9% of sales. With diversified production bases, higher tariffs may only affect ~10% of revenue.

Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Holdings (2285 HK), and AAC Technologies Holdings (2018 HK) are more exposed given their significant US sales yet most production is still in China. 
While the US generated over 50% of the revenue of Techtronic Industries (669 HK) and Nexteer Automotive (1316 HK), they are less exposed given their worldwide manufacturing presence. 


China & HK Strategy: Stocks Exposed to the US and Higher Tariffs

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity still high. Net buying very strong. 7 names traded more than US$1bn. Last week I said tech would continue to be bought. It was.</li>
<li>The trend continues to net sales of ETFs and high div SOEs. Net buying is very, very broad-based. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> is batted around like crazy.</li>
<li>I expect HK-listed tech to <em>continue</em> getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity still high. Net buying very strong. 7 names traded more than US$1bn. Last week I said tech would continue to be bought. It was.
The trend continues to net sales of ETFs and high div SOEs. Net buying is very, very broad-based. Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) is batted around like crazy.
I expect HK-listed tech to continue getting bought. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Nov 2024); Tech Bought, High-Div SOEs Sold or Ignored, Again

Hong Kong

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd is a Chinese power company that produces solar grade polysilicon and operates cogeneration plants and in China.

Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Gcl Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800 HK)

Brilliance China (1114 HK): Driving Back Into Passive Portfolios

The stock is up 27% over the last 3 months and could be added to passive portfolios at the end of the month. There will be positioning on the stock...

Brian Freitas

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 27th): Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: Stocks Exposed to the US and Higher Tariffs

US tariffs may only affect an average of ~10% revenue of HK-listed industrials on a net basis. Vesync, Chervon, and AAC Technologies look exposed...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Nov 2024); Tech Bought, High-Div SOEs Sold or Ignored, Again

SOUTHBOUND continues to be a big net buyer of HK stocks. It is possible investors are looking to cheap tech, possible they are looking to buybacks....

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Brilliance China (1114 HK): Driving Back Into Passive Portfolios

The stock is up 27% over the last 3 months and could be added to passive portfolios at the end of the month. There will be positioning on the stock...

Brian Freitas

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

Adding 4 stocks gets us to 80 members - a target that was to be reached by mid-2022. We list 10 potential adds where passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 27th): Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China & HK Strategy: Stocks Exposed to the US and Higher Tariffs

​US tariffs may only affect an average of ~10% revenue of HK-listed industrials on a net basis. Vesync, Chervon, and AAC Technologies look exposed...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15 Nov 2024); Tech Bought, High-Div SOEs Sold or Ignored, Again

SOUTHBOUND continues to be a big net buyer of HK stocks. It is possible investors are looking to cheap tech, possible they are looking to buybacks....

Travis Lundy

US tariffs may only affect an average of ~10% revenue of HK-listed industrials on a net basis. Vesync, Chervon, and AAC Technologies look exposed...