Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Excess UK demand and inflation continue to put hawkish pressures on the MPC, but Brexit uncertainty justifies postponing a more hawkish signal or action.</li>
<li>I expect the MPC to vote for no change in policy unanimously and not prepare for a Feb-19 rate hike. A May move is a more likely but still state-dependent outcome.</li>
</ul>


Excess UK demand and inflation continue to put hawkish pressures on the MPC, but Brexit uncertainty justifies postponing a more hawkish signal or action.
I expect the MPC to vote for no change in policy unanimously and not prepare for a Feb-19 rate hike. A May move is a more likely but still state-dependent outcome.


Preview: BoE Stuck in the Brexit Quagmire

<ul>
<li>Theresa May won the confidence of her parliamentary party by 200 votes to 117 after pledging to hand over before the next election and suggesting an early exit.</li>
<li>Large-scale opposition to her leadership diminishes authority, but an inability to re-challenge her for a year provides some space for pivoting even softer if needed.</li>
<li>Attempts to improve the backstop can now resume. A stated intent to make it a deal the DUP can tolerate makes it much more challenging to fix swiftly.</li>
<li>Unless the European Council sounds surprisingly open to change tomorrow, talks are likely to drag on and deprive the BoE of the clarity needed to hike in Feb-19.</li>
</ul>


Theresa May won the confidence of her parliamentary party by 200 votes to 117 after pledging to hand over before the next election and suggesting an early exit.
Large-scale opposition to her leadership diminishes authority, but an inability to re-challenge her for a year provides some space for pivoting even softer if needed.
Attempts to improve the backstop can now resume. A stated intent to make it a deal the DUP can tolerate makes it much more challenging to fix swiftly.
Unless the European Council sounds surprisingly open to change tomorrow, talks are likely to drag on and deprive the BoE of the clarity needed to hike in Feb-19.


<ul>
<li>The threshold for a confidence vote in UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been triggered and will be held at 6pm GMT, with results available at about 9pm. I expect Conservative MPs to oust May now rather than be bound to keep her as Leader for another year.</li>
<li>It is likely to be a close vote. Either way, the political outlook will change. Replacing Theresa May would take a few weeks and would raise the risk of a managed “no deal” Brexit, as candidates compete for the Eurosceptic membership.</li>
</ul>


The threshold for a confidence vote in UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been triggered and will be held at 6pm GMT, with results available at about 9pm. I expect Conservative MPs to oust May now rather than be bound to keep her as Leader for another year.
It is likely to be a close vote. Either way, the political outlook will change. Replacing Theresa May would take a few weeks and would raise the risk of a managed “no deal” Brexit, as candidates compete for the Eurosceptic membership.


FLASH: UK's No-Confidence Vote in May Day

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

<ul>
<li>The UK unemployment rate was little changed in Oct-18 at 4.08%, as expected, but volumes improved. An adverse cohort effect in Nov-18 risks a temporary rise in the UR, but I still forecast further falls through 2019.</li>
<li>Flows have been better recently, and the still strong vacancies support my view that upward pressure on the UR is not a disinflationary demand shock.</li>
<li>Surging wage growth is a surprisingly strong signal of the tightening labour market. Hours are not distorting the current move, unlike earlier in the year, although some support may be coming from up-skilling flows within the labour market.</li>
</ul>


The UK unemployment rate was little changed in Oct-18 at 4.08%, as expected, but volumes improved. An adverse cohort effect in Nov-18 risks a temporary rise in the UR, but I still forecast further falls through 2019.
Flows have been better recently, and the still strong vacancies support my view that upward pressure on the UR is not a disinflationary demand shock.
Surging wage growth is a surprisingly strong signal of the tightening labour market. Hours are not distorting the current move, unlike earlier in the year, although some support may be coming from up-skilling flows within the labour market.


UK Cycle: Up-Skilled Surge in Tight Labour Market Pay

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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Preview: BoE Stuck in the Brexit Quagmire

Excess UK demand and inflation continue to put hawkish pressures on the MPC, but Brexit uncertainty justifies postponing a more hawkish signal or...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK Back to Brussels with Bruises

Theresa May won the confidence of her parliamentary party by 200 votes to 117 after pledging to hand over before the next election and suggesting...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK's No-Confidence Vote in May Day

The threshold for a confidence vote in UK Prime Minister Theresa May has been triggered and will be held at 6pm GMT, with results available at...

Phil Rush

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due...

Greg Gibbs

UK Cycle: Up-Skilled Surge in Tight Labour Market Pay

The UK unemployment rate was little changed in Oct-18 at 4.08%, as expected, but volumes improved. An adverse cohort effect in Nov-18 risks a...

Phil Rush

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