UK Cycle: Bullish Trends Stretch Before Slowing
UK employment growth increased further in Dec-18 despite GDP’s yearend weakness. Higher participation has bolstered the bullish trend but tends to...
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FLASH: UK Consumer Is Bullish BoB in Jan-19
UK retail sales more than recovered their Dec-18 fall with a Jan-19 resurgence back above an already brisk trend. I still see the BoE as overly...
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FLASH: UK Parliamentary Theatrics Divorced from Deal
The government was defeated on a motion reiterating the approach passed on 29 January after Eurosceptics abstained in protest at the implied...
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FLASH: UK Inflation Grinds near Its Trough in Jan-19
UK inflation disappointed consensus expectations in Jan-19 but was broadly in line with my forecasts at 2.5% on the RPI and 1.85% on the CPI. The...
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BoE: Extracting the Policy Option Value of Delays
The BoE MPC was unanimous in voting for no policy changes in Feb-19, as widely expected. Hawkish pressures remain in the Bank’s forecast, but the...
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