UK Wrap: Bullish Trends Return as Risk Subsides
Activity: Surveys are biased by uncertainty and should rebound towards the official data now political risk has subsided. I see underlying trends...
354 Views
BoE: Seeking Proof from the Political Pudding
Both Michael Saunders and Jon Haskel maintained their dovish dissents at the MPC’s Dec-19 meeting, as expected, despite the decisive political...
592 Views
UK: Bullish Black Friday Effect Hitting Dec-19
The ONS reports a 0.6% m-o-m decline in UK retail sales for “November”, but that does not include sales on Black Friday or the preceding week. The...
587 Views
UK Inflation: Nov-19 Strength Partly Persists
UK inflation exceeded expectations in Nov-19, mostly due to food prices amid payback and rapid passthrough of wholesale pressure. Thomas Cook’s...
395 Views
UK: Labour Resilience Ahead of Brexit Resolution
The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in Oct-19, as I expected, but is now on the cusp of rounding down, contrary to the consensus forecast for...
372 Views