Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>H1 UK GDP growth has disappointed by enough to leave live concerns about how weak the economy currently is, which should encourage the MPC to leave Bank rate on hold in August. I expect two dissenters, with the new member joining the majority.</li>
<li>Falling unemployment is indicating a persistent and significant supply shock, which is inherently inflationary and hawkish. I continue to expect the MPC to start raising Bank rate in May-18, with risks skewed earlier.</li>
<li>
Most members may expect to hike sooner,…</li>
</ul>


H1 UK GDP growth has disappointed by enough to leave live concerns about how weak the economy currently is, which should encourage the MPC to leave Bank rate on hold in August. I expect two dissenters, with the new member joining the majority.
Falling unemployment is indicating a persistent and significant supply shock, which is inherently inflationary and hawkish. I continue to expect the MPC to start raising Bank rate in May-18, with risks skewed earlier.

Most members may expect to hike sooner,…


<ul>
<li>Dave Ramsden will fill the vacant BoE seat of Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking from 4 September. Having sat in on MPC meetings for many years under King and Carney, he is well versed in the debate and its evolution.</li>
<li>
While serving as Chief Economist at the Treasury (and head of the government economic service), Dave has clearly and candidly communicated the government’s position on a broad range of issues. He may become the first Deputy Governor outside of the monetary policy seat to…</li>
</ul>


Dave Ramsden will fill the vacant BoE seat of Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking from 4 September. Having sat in on MPC meetings for many years under King and Carney, he is well versed in the debate and its evolution.

While serving as Chief Economist at the Treasury (and head of the government economic service), Dave has clearly and candidly communicated the government’s position on a broad range of issues. He may become the first Deputy Governor outside of the monetary policy seat to…


<ul>
<li>UK GDP growth increased to 0.3% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast and the consensus. Some surprising moves were pencilled in for the industrial sectors in June, but that might be the ONS anticipating revisions.</li>
<li>This outcome once again falls short of the BoE’s assumption. It is only 0.1pp lower for Q2, but H1 growth is almost half the pace it projected in May.</li>
<li>
Weak GDP should discourage a hurried rate hike, lest the current path proves to be one of deteriorating…</li>
</ul>


UK GDP growth increased to 0.3% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast and the consensus. Some surprising moves were pencilled in for the industrial sectors in June, but that might be the ONS anticipating revisions.
This outcome once again falls short of the BoE’s assumption. It is only 0.1pp lower for Q2, but H1 growth is almost half the pace it projected in May.

Weak GDP should discourage a hurried rate hike, lest the current path proves to be one of deteriorating…


FLASH: UK GDP Suffering from Supply Shock

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<div>
Chartonics FX macro Monday 23 July 2017</div><div>Euro, GBP and AUD openers and lids</div>Euro weekly chart denotes two key points:1. Above 1.15 there is virtually no resistance until 1.20/21.2. RSI has pierced resistance with MACD in pursuit.<div>This bigger picture must be combined with the daily cycle which is nearing extended territory as bull divergence brews as pointed out in our regular updates. Spikes toward 1.17 have faded in the past and this one may push marginally higher and then fade which represents the…</div>


Chartonics FX macro Monday 23 July 2017Euro, GBP and AUD openers and lidsEuro weekly chart denotes two key points:1. Above 1.15 there is virtually no resistance until 1.20/21.2. RSI has pierced resistance with MACD in pursuit.This bigger picture must be combined with the daily cycle which is nearing extended territory as bull divergence brews as pointed out in our regular updates. Spikes toward 1.17 have faded in the past and this one may push marginally higher and then fade which represents the…

<ul>
<li>UK retail sales rebounded by 0.9% m-o-m in June as another fall in food sales volumes was more than offset elsewhere. The ONS data are back in line with the median of the numerous other retail surveys.</li>
<li>The level of retail sales has been trending higher this year at a pace broadly consistent with the previous two years. Growth rates have rebounded accordingly. I continue to expect a slight rise in GDP growth to 0.3% q-o-q in Q2.</li>
<li>
Consumer expectations have been trending toward the lows hit…</li>
</ul>


UK retail sales rebounded by 0.9% m-o-m in June as another fall in food sales volumes was more than offset elsewhere. The ONS data are back in line with the median of the numerous other retail surveys.
The level of retail sales has been trending higher this year at a pace broadly consistent with the previous two years. Growth rates have rebounded accordingly. I continue to expect a slight rise in GDP growth to 0.3% q-o-q in Q2.

Consumer expectations have been trending toward the lows hit…


FLASH: UK Retail Resumes a Brisk Trend Pace

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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BoE Preview: Hiking Cycle but Not Yet

H1 UK GDP growth has disappointed by enough to leave live concerns about how weak the economy currently is, which should encourage the MPC to...

Phil Rush

BoE: Dave Ramsden Adds Monetary Insight

Dave Ramsden will fill the vacant BoE seat of Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking from 4 September. Having sat in on MPC meetings for many...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK GDP Suffering from Supply Shock

UK GDP growth increased to 0.3% q-o-q in the ONS’s first estimate of Q2, in line with my forecast and the consensus. Some surprising moves were...

Phil Rush

FX Macro - Euro GBP and AUD

Chartonics FX macro Monday 23 July 2017Euro, GBP and AUD openers and lidsEuro weekly chart denotes two key points:1. Above 1.15 there is virtually...

Thomas Schroeder

FLASH: UK Retail Resumes a Brisk Trend Pace

UK retail sales rebounded by 0.9% m-o-m in June as another fall in food sales volumes was more than offset elsewhere. The ONS data are back in...

Phil Rush

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