UK Labour Market: Healthier than UR Rise Suggests
The UK unemployment rate disappointed expectations by increasing to 4.4% in December. With vacancies still rising, this looks like either a...
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Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget
Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the...
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UK Inflation: Ready to Fly Lower for Easter 2018
Recreation stabilised CPI inflation in January, but further falls lie ahead. Distortions to airfares from an earlier Easter may mean April...
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BoE: Hawkish Hurdles in Slow Race to Neutral
The BoE’s Inflation Report was unusually hawkish amid excess demand building in its forecast. Above-target inflation forecasts are difficult to...
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Week Ahead in Global Macro: Inflation (US, UK, Oil Reports, India), Japan/EU GDP, Lunar New Year
Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas, we maintain short positions on US stocks...
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