Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.</li>
<li>As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.</li>
<li>Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 holding above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670.
As long as these base supports hold, we would use any election-related pullback as an opportunity to add exposure.
Following the election, we see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end.


Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Games Workshop Group PLC / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Games Workshop Group (GAW) has signed an agreement with Amazon Content Services, a subsidiary of Amazon.com, to prospectively develop GAW’s intellectual property (IP) into film and television content and to grant associated merchandising rights, initially focused on the Warhammer 40k universe. The partnership follows the announcement in December 2022 when management said an agreement had been reached in principle. Although the content will mainly be focused on GAW’s Warhammer 40k, Amazon has the option to develop other IP within GAW’s fantasy universe following the initial release. The first year has been set out as a period for creative discussions, after which the agreement will go ahead if both GAW and Amazon sign off on the creative guidelines. </p>

Games Workshop Group (GAW) has signed an agreement with Amazon Content Services, a subsidiary of Amazon.com, to prospectively develop GAW’s intellectual property (IP) into film and television content and to grant associated merchandising rights, initially focused on the Warhammer 40k universe. The partnership follows the announcement in December 2022 when management said an agreement had been reached in principle. Although the content will mainly be focused on GAW’s Warhammer 40k, Amazon has the option to develop other IP within GAW’s fantasy universe following the initial release. The first year has been set out as a period for creative discussions, after which the agreement will go ahead if both GAW and Amazon sign off on the creative guidelines. 

Games Workshop Group - Licensed content agreement with Amazon

<p>Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) H124 trading update indicated a robust start to the year in line with management’s expectations. The launch of the new edition of Warhammer 40k in Q1 helped to boost core year-on-year revenue growth in the first half by an expected 11% to no less than £235m (H123: £212.3m). Licensing revenue is expected at £12m (H123: £14.3m), taking total group revenue to c £247m (H123: £227m). There was an implied slowdown in core revenue growth in Q2 versus Q1, although this is expected following a new edition of Warhammer 40k. PBT is expected to grow 12% to ‘not less than’ £94m (H123: £83.6m). We have left our estimates unchanged, anticipating broadly a 50:50 H1:H2 split for both revenue and profit. The H124 results are scheduled for 9 January 2024.</p>

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) H124 trading update indicated a robust start to the year in line with management’s expectations. The launch of the new edition of Warhammer 40k in Q1 helped to boost core year-on-year revenue growth in the first half by an expected 11% to no less than £235m (H123: £212.3m). Licensing revenue is expected at £12m (H123: £14.3m), taking total group revenue to c £247m (H123: £227m). There was an implied slowdown in core revenue growth in Q2 versus Q1, although this is expected following a new edition of Warhammer 40k. PBT is expected to grow 12% to ‘not less than’ £94m (H123: £83.6m). We have left our estimates unchanged, anticipating broadly a 50:50 H1:H2 split for both revenue and profit. The H124 results are scheduled for 9 January 2024.

Games Workshop Group - H124 in line, solid core growth

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be up to seven index  changes including a couple of potential intra-review index changes that could be triggered by M&amp;A events.</li>
<li>I expect the regular Inclusion/Exclusion events to take place at the market close on Friday 15th December 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2023 Rebalance.
There could be up to seven index  changes including a couple of potential intra-review index changes that could be triggered by M&amp;A events.
I expect the regular Inclusion/Exclusion events to take place at the market close on Friday 15th December 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>UK Industrials maintain top Sector weight. Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary underweights fund Technology overweight.</li>
<li>Investment Managers Industry group hits record exposure. REITs largely unloved by UK Small/Midcap funds.</li>
<li>Future plc remains the most widely held company. XPS Pensions and Foresight Group Holdings are the top overweights. B&amp;M, Weir Group and Rightmove lead the underweights.</li>
</ul>


UK Industrials maintain top Sector weight. Real Estate and Consumer Discretionary underweights fund Technology overweight.
Investment Managers Industry group hits record exposure. REITs largely unloved by UK Small/Midcap funds.
Future plc remains the most widely held company. XPS Pensions and Foresight Group Holdings are the top overweights. B&amp;M, Weir Group and Rightmove lead the underweights.


United Kingdom

Games Workshop Group Plc manufactures and retails tabletop war-game systems and associated miniatures. The Company operates approximately 250 stores and serves over 350 independent retailers in the United Kingdom. Games Workshop also has stores in North America, Continental Europe and Australia.

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Games Workshop Group PLC (GAW LN)

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Games Workshop Group - Licensed content agreement with Amazon

Games Workshop Group (GAW) has signed an agreement with Amazon Content Services, a subsidiary of Amazon.com, to prospectively develop GAW’s...

Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group - H124 in line, solid core growth

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) H124 trading update indicated a robust start to the year in line with management’s expectations. The launch of the...

Edison Investment Research

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

I suggest having a look at the 888 holdings (888 LN) / Playtech Plc (PTEC LN) pair as a sector-neutral fundamental relative value bet with a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

UK Small/Midcap Fund Positioning Update

How are UK Small and Midcap equity funds positioned? We analyse the holdings of 106 actively managed UK strategies to find out.

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI & SPX; Buys in Services, Technology, Discretionary, Gold Miners

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI $ACWI and $SPX as they hold above their respective bases at $117 and 5650-5670; Buys in Services, Technology,...

Vermilion Research

Games Workshop Group - Licensed content agreement with Amazon

Games Workshop Group (GAW) has signed an agreement with Amazon Content Services, a subsidiary of Amazon.com, to prospectively develop GAW’s...

Edison Investment Research

Games Workshop Group - H124 in line, solid core growth

Games Workshop Group’s (GAW’s) H124 trading update indicated a robust start to the year in line with management’s expectations. The launch of the...

Edison Investment Research

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250

I suggest having a look at the 888 holdings (888 LN) / Playtech Plc (PTEC LN) pair as a sector-neutral fundamental relative value bet with a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

UK Small/Midcap Fund Positioning Update

How are UK Small and Midcap equity funds positioned? We analyse the holdings of 106 actively managed UK strategies to find out.

Steven Holden

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Dec 23: CAB Payments Could Be Deleted from F250